The trouble with writing these columns in July is that the information is changing so quickly. Since I published Part 1 yesterday we’ve had a ton of new information. None of it is official so I won’t update yesterday’s or today’s column quite yet but Arsenal, from pretty much out of nowhere, look like they’re going to land Nicolas Pepe while Manchester United appear closer to being done with both Paul Pogba and Romelu Lukaku and Paulo Dybala seems to be inching closer to the Premier League either at Spurs or United. That’s a lot of potential action at the top of the Top 100 rankings to be potentially shaken up within 24 hours of publishing. Anyway, here is the back half of my rankings. While I have a strong bias toward low risk options in my early rounds the later rounds are all about upside for me. If you’re in an 8-team league there’s going to be a ton of guys who you’ll be able to pull off waivers that can produce adequate stats on a one or two week basis. If you can pick one of those guys up off of waivers then the goal with your picks should be to acquire guys who haven’t been drafted yet that, if everything breaks right, should have been in the first half of this column. As an example, the range of possible outcomes for guys like Benjamin Mendy and Marcos Alonso is anywhere from the number one overall defender to being a reserve who shouldn’t even be rostered in 8-team fantasy leagues.
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51. Riyad Mahrez – Another player people following my rankings won’t be drafting because, once again, he’s a huge risk to be an incredibly high end reserve rather than a starter. If you have someone like Sane from earlier in the draft you’ll have to overpay for the handcuff.
52. Harry McGuire – The upside of going to City and being much more valuable than this to the downside of being back at Leicester City and being a little disappointed at not making his big move. Still, he’ll start every week and get the occasional goal in addition to whatever clean sheets he picks up.
53. Jonny – A cheaper way to get a two-way defender for Wolves than spending a premium pick on Doherty. Jonny could well match his teammate for production in the way that Sadio Mané nearly matched Salah a year after there was a massive disparity.
54. Aaron Wan-Bissaka – The eulogies for Manchester United are certainly exaggerated and Wan-Bissaka should start every week and produce solid two-way stats.
55. Abdoulaye Doucouré – Just steady, unsexy production for the back end of your starting midfield group.
56. Ben Davies – Danny Rose isn’t actually gone yet but he seems to be on the way out which could make Davies a regular starter in a fullback-friendly system.
57. Lucas Moura – Moura’s role isn’t clear with potential new arrivals and holdover talent in the wide attacking positions for Spurs. If he plays regularly, this will be a massive bargain. Me projecting him here is my estimation that this is a handcuff for Son rather than a potential starter.
58. Matt Ritchie – I was much more excited about Ritchie’s reclassification as a defender when Rafa was still in charge. With the Magpies in disarray, Ritchie could go right back to being a marginal candidate to even be on your roster. This is a compromise spot to account for some upside if, miraculously, things come together at St James Park and some downside for a relegation campaign.
59. Gabriel Jesus – Like Mahrez, the bet is that he’s only an occasional starter which makes his value somewhat limited to a handcuff for the person who drafted Aguero in the first round.
60. Willian – We’ve gone far enough down the list that Willian, and the chance he starts regularly over one or both of Pulisic and Hudson-Odoi, is a solid gamble.
61. Luka Milivojevic – Hard to imagine Palace offering up the same volume of penalties for their captain again. He’s a solid back-end starter in midfield but don’t expect him to perform like he did last season.
62. Andriy Yarmolenko – Back from injury with the potential to resume his scoring form of early last season. He’ll be a third or fourth most prolific scoring option for an above average West Ham attack but you wouldn’t be upset with him as your fourth starter in midfield.
63. Miguel Almirón – More a hope than an expectation that he can go from promising acquisition to settled point-producer at the Premier League level. He has upside that some of the guys below here on the list don’t have but he could well be off your roster within a month as well.
64. Troy Deeney – A steady option who you don’t want as your second forward but he’s a great option as your third forward. The polar opposite of the next guy on the list.
65. Tammy Abraham – The Chelsea forward situation is a bit of a mess with Giroud, Abraham, and Batshuayi all potentially leading the line with the likely outcome being that none will be the regular starter. We know what Giroud is at this point in his career and Batshuayi has failed to gain the starting role at Stamford Bridge in his prime. Abraham is the one option that could credibly take the job full time as part of a natural rise from youth prospect to prolific Championship forward to rising star in the Premier League. This might be a little early but at some point people will look at Chelsea and realize how few of their players have been drafted to this point.
66. Luke Shaw – Shaw seems to have won the right back position with Ashley Young likely taking the occasional start from him. He’s never lived up to his billing but he should be a solid second defender with at least a touch of upside.
67. Andros Townsend – The valuation of Townsend is really dependent on what else happens at Palace over the balance of the summer. If they use the Wan-Bissaka money to strengthen he could be a productive bench midfielder. If Zaha joins AWB heading out the exit door then you could be cutting Townsend quickly from a toothless attack.
68. James Ward Prowse – Is this the season the breakout happens and his good service from wide turns into some goals and assists? Fifth midfielder is the right range to take a chance on JWP’s upside.
69. Joao Moutinho – As Wolves’ attackers, especially Jota, mature Moutinho’s value as an assist-maker will continue to rise. His production jumped over the second half of last season as Jota found his sea legs in the Prem.
70. Mesut Ozil – Maybe I’m overly negative about Ozil because I’m a scarred Arsenal supporter but with the arrival of Ceballos we add “threat to playing time” to “he just wasn’t very good last season” and “Emery clearly would prefer he be gone”. Not exactly the things you want to hear about a guy you draft. Still, we can fondly remember a few seasons back when he was challenging assist records and hope he jumps back to that level.
71. Teemu Pukki – I tend to group a risk/reward pick like Pukki who was incredibly prolific in the Championship with…
72. Chris Wood – …who is unlikely to break out and be a star but will contribute steadily as your third forward.
73. Ross Barkley – Another risk/reward profile for a player that we’ve been waiting to break out for years. Could Frank Lampard mold him into a reasonable facsimile of Frank in his playing days? The physical talent is certainly there. He could also end up as an occasional starter/mostly reserve again.
74. Patrick Van Aanholt – The attacking value will always be there but Palace could be a bit of a mess and PVA could suffer for it. Still, remember you still liked him when Palace were struggling and AWB hadn’t emerged yet.
75. Ben Chilwell – Solid defensive choice who will see the occasional attacking stats. Not a ton to get excited about but a worthy 3rd defender
76. Joelinton – The stats from Germany don’t tell the story of a prolific forward but there has to be some reason that Newcastle spent that sort of money on him, doesn’t there?
77. Sead Kolasinac – With Nacho Monreal still knocking around and Kieran Tierney still rumored to be arriving this is a bit of a flier on a guy who could be great under the right circumstances but those right circumstances seem unlikely to come to pass.
78. Emi Buendía – Making the leap up a level you just don’t know what you’re going to get.
79. Olivier Giroud – He could inherit the starting spot at forward for Chelsea by default and be a great value. More likely, you’re handcuffing him with either Abraham or Batshuayi.
80. Alex Iwobi – Iwobi seems like he’d do nicely if he actually got a regular starting spot but that never seems to happen so it’s hard to value him as a starting fantasy midfielder. [NOTE: This ranking goes off the board if, as rumored, Arsenal acquire Nicholas Pepe]
81. Jack Grealish – The counting (fantasy-relevant) stats have never been that prolific but there’s always the chance he grows into them as the focal point of the Aston Villa attack.
82. Harvey Barnes – Will he get enough starts and minutes to continue his promising campaign from last season.
83. Danny Ings – Charlie Austin seems to be on the outs so if Ings can stay healthy he should get a pretty clear run at the starting role. Ings’ stock could rise significantly but we’ve seen this movie before and been disappointed so lets not get too excited.
84. Allison – The first goalkeeper off the board. He won’t dominate other goalkeeping options the way Salah could other midfielders but there is value in just setting him as your starter and forgetting about the position. Plus, you’re not getting a ton of differentiation at other positions at this point in the draft otherwise.
85. Ederson – Like Allison, he’s a set-it-and-forget-it pick which is nice.
86. David Luiz – Should continue to be a steady option that you can get late in your draft.
87. Jan Vertonghen – And another one.
88. Toby Alderweireld – And a third.
89. Seamus Coleman – With Gueye likely gone you’re not going to get as many clean sheets but you’ll still get some goals and assists which is good stuff from a third defender.
90. Marcos Alonso – The upside of a former top-scoring defender with the downside of Emerson taking his starting position if Lampard prefers a four-man defense.
91. Roberto Pereyra – He has flashed in the past but never seems to be able to sustain form and/or health.
92. Dwight McNeil – Burnley aren’t likely to start churning out fantasy points from the attack but McNeil seems to be a promising option that could change that trend at least a little bit.
93. Max Aarons – An outside back who contributes to the attack. He won’t be picking up a ton of clean sheet points moving up a division and playing in the style that the Canaries have telegraphed but there’s little risk that he won’t start and he might pick up some assists.
94. Michael Keane – A safe pick but some downside due to the loss of Gueye.
95. Alexis Sánchez – He couldn’t come back into form, could he?
96. Romelu Lukaku – He’s likely to be sold but at this point in your draft you’ll take his potential upside and pick someone up off of waivers if he gets sold.
97. Willy Boly – A solid, but not spectacular option as a fringe starter.
98. Craig Dawson – Likely a steady starter for an above-average
99. Wesley Moraes – Making the leap from Belgian league to the Premier League on a newly promoted side. The 22-year-old has some upside but that’s a lot of leaps to take all at once.
100. Hugo Lloris – He’s not as talented as De Gea but he’s got a better team in front of him so you like him for more clean sheets.
