Welcome back for another round of FPL captaincy debate!
The super-sized double gameweek that was Week 26 has passed us by, and for your faithful writer, the FPL experience was not all that it was cracked up to be. Leading up to the round, I had in place what I thought was a strong side - 10 of 11 players with a double gameweek, and a triple captain chip used on Harry Kane. What I got was a 92 point round (-4), which gave me a green arrow, but only gave me a round rank of 1.3 million. Playing a chip, I felt a round rank short of about 250k would mean a disappointment, and with Kane only delivering eight points over his two games, my triple captain play has to be considered just that - not a complete disaster, but a disappointment.
Still, when I look around at some of the results of my colleagues, posting their scores on social media, I suppose my round could be considered average. Some folks knocked it out of the park, with scores in the 120s, while others, who had a good-looking side on paper, struggled in the 70s. Plenty of surprises that make one second-guess their decisions in hindsight took place. Crystal Palace keeping two clean sheets comes to mind. I did not give them a moment’s thought when putting my side together for the big round, and yet, the only Manchester City player to outscore the likes of Vicente Guaita, Gary Cahill, Joel Ward and Patrick Van Aanholt was Riyad Mahrez, and that was just barely. Bruno Fernandes tanked, Mo Salah tanked. Jamie Vardy tanked. Raheem Sterling, who I feel regret for including in my top armband choices last week, tanked. So if you feel your round went bad, you are not alone. All the same, congratulations for those that smashed it in Week 26.
So that leads us into Week 27, where we have a single double gameweek fixture and, based on the clubs involved, it is going to probably make this a shorter column than usual. You see, the best club in the league is playing twice, both at home, one against a side who are leaking goals, failing to keep a clean sheet in their last ten. Of course, I am referring to Manchester City. One would expect every active manager has at least one, probably two or even three City players already in their squad in preparation for the double in the previous round, so if you have a City asset or two to put the armband on, it is going to be difficult to resist. When you have a side that scored the most goals and have, by far, the best defensive record in the league, surely there are going to be some players from City to score big this week. All that stands in the way is that pesky Pep rotation. I have my opinion on that rotation headache for this particular round but let’s dive into the meat of the column first, because time is short until the next deadline. So here’s a special Manchester City-focused edition of Captain Obvious...
Kevin De Bruyne (11.8m)
Rostered % - 13.8% (rising steady)
Total points - 109 (3 Gs, 11 As, 15 BPs)
Opponent - Manchester United (home), Southampton (home)
This is going to be a big decision for a lot of fantasy managers this week. KdB played the full 90 in both of the matches in Week 26. Is he able to turn around and do the same a second straight week? Knowing Pep Guardiola, the odds seem unfavorable but, at the same time, there is no denying that the Belgian playmaker is the first name on the team sheet if at all possible, because he is the keystone to their attacking arch. I do have some worry that he will be rested against Southampton, because you have to assume Guardiola is going to name his strongest side possible for the Manchester derby this weekend. Maybe Pep can get a lead against the Red Devils and allow de Bruyne to play around 70 minutes, to preserve him for the next game, but that is asking a lot. I think the best way to look at all City players this week as possibly playing only once. But that’s not necessarily a tragedy. Remember, other than Southampton, every other club is only playing once. It’s still table-leading, likely title-winning City playing at home with a guaranteed start for the likes of de Bruyne, Sterling, Jesus, Gundogan, etc. We just have to cross our fingers the player we back plays both or simply does major damage in one, which Gundogan somewhat famously did just a few weeks ago. So if de Bruyne only starts once folks, do not lose all hope.
What I find appealing to counteract the possibility of starting only one of two matches is that de Bryune’s ownership percentage is so low right now. It is not often that a player like him is fit, has a double gameweek with two home games and yet is rostered by less than 14% of FPL managers. The trick is, if you want to bring him in, you will likely need to remove a star midfielder, the likes of a Mo Salah or a Bruno Fernandes, or you would need to spend some points. There are other City options out there who perhaps do not have the pedigree and track record of de Bruyne, but they come at a price where one free transfer may be all that is needed to bring them in and captain them. We will see how many folks think to bring him in before the deadline, but his armband selection rate should be pretty low, even among those in the top 100k or so.
Joao Cancelo (6.2m)
Rostered % - 25.7% (falling steady)
Total points - 155 (1 G, 2 As, 12 CS, 13 BPs)
Opponent - Manchester United (home), Southampton (home)
Giving an armband to a defensive player is already an unorthodox move, giving it to a defensive player who has been established as prone to rotation seems downright madness. And, after returning only two points in the just-finished double gameweek, resulting in more managers dropping him than adding him to their squads in the buildup to the coming deadline, people may think it reckless to nominate Cancelo to the short list. Admittedly, this is not a move for the faint of heart. But, here is my rationale - looking at how Cancelo is being used and how often he rests, it seems to me there is a better chance than not that he starts both of the upcoming GW27 fixtures. He got a full rest in the West Ham match to start GW26 off and, looking at his league play to date, he appears good to start a run of five matches in a row at minimum. These upcoming games would just be the second and third games since his most recent rest. Surely he will be playing against United, it is just a matter of whether he gets that tasty Southampton game a few days later.
I apply the same logic to all City players this week in that, even if the one you pick for captain only plays once, it is not the end of the world when the rest of the league is only playing once. If I am going to captain a defender, Cancelo represents the sort I like - plenty of clean sheet potential along with legit attacking potential, allowing for multiple ways to come good, and, considering City’s defensive record this season, you have to think one of these two games will give a clean sheet. Manchester derby’s tend to be tight affairs, the reverse fixture went 0-0 earlier this season, so do not let the fact that these are the two highest-scoring clubs in the league this season throw you off of clean sheet potential. That said, City have slipped a bit lately, registering only one cleanie in their last four. I think if you are going to captain City defense, I would rank Ederson #1 for safety, Cancelo #1 for highest ceiling and Rúben Dias somewhere in the middle of both. So yes, I would not chastise a manager for giving the armband to Ederson or Dias this week if that is the defensive representation they currently have.
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Ilkay Gundogan (6.2m)
Rostered % - 37.5% (rising quickly)
Total points - 132 (11 Gs, 3 As, 20 BPs)
Opponent - Manchester United (home), Southampton (home)
For my third and final shortlist selection this week, exclusively from Man City, is one Ilkay Gundogan. Perhaps he is not deserving of Player of the Year honors, but he would certainly get my vote for Player of Midseason. From Week 13 until the first game of a double gameweek, Week 24, Gundogan was simply volcanic, scoring eleven goals over a twelve game period, adding a couple assists in, making him average slightly better than one attacking return every single game for a sustained period of time, for the cost of a player you’d be happy to get half that production from. Of course, any FPL manager who has been around the game for any considerable length of time, the art of success in this game is knowing when a player is losing form and cutting him before the masses do, as well as recognizing the advent of form and bringing a player in before everyone else does.
So, I am a bit on the fence about Gundogan, because, since that first game of GW24, it has been a different story for him. In four games, he has been benched for two of them. In the two he started, no attacking returns. Only an assist from an 8-minute cameo in their most recent win over Wolves. Now, I feel Gundogan has done enough to deserve a regular spot in the XI, I do not think he will immediately fade into the peripheral figure he had been before his midseason awakening. With this being said, of the three City players on my shortlist, I am worried most about Gundogan starting both games and, given recent form, worried for his production potential. In his last start against West Ham this past weekend, he was statistically invisible. Not only did he not get an attacking return in FPL, he didn’t help folks in any format. No shots on target is one thing but...no shots? At all? No key passes either. Now this is not to say that Gundogan still doesn’t carry excellent value at his price tag. But as a captain, I am less gung ho than I feel the numbers will show once we see how many people captain him, because I think he will be pretty far up there based on roster percentage and the fact that most managers prefer to captain an attacking player over a defender.
Other options - I feel like a disclaimer should not be necessary because it does not take long playing this game to realize one sobering fact - things hardly ever go to plan. Expectations are rarely met. Do I think it is wise to back a City player as captain over a non City player? If you have one of Ederson, Dias, Cancelo, De Bruyne or Gundogan, then yes. If you have John Stones and Gabriel Jesus, then not so much. Once we get into a combination of “will they play both” and “can they be trusted to return” kind of City player, then I think they become on par, if not substandard to, some of the single gameweek options out there.
Let us start with Liverpool at home to Fulham. The Reds have been underachieving, with Mo Salah coming off a double gameweek blank, while the Cottagers, still mired in the relegation zone, have gotten much better defensively since the calendar flipped to 2021. Spurs were only able to squeeze one goal past them midweek. So one could rationalize that Salah is not a smart pick. Conversely, one could make the argument that Salah is of the ilk that a dry spell only means he is overdue for his next big haul, while Fulham’s defense are about to be stretched for the third time in eight days. I could actually picture an overdue lopsided win for the Reds here with Salah having a big day. I don’t feel confident about it enough to opt for him over a City player this week, but if you backed him, I would understand.
I am less enthusiastic about Harry Kane with a home match against Crystal Palace. The Eagles are fresh off a double clean sheet gameweek while Kane has been quiet of late. With Gareth Bale now emerging as a scoring weapon, do we just add his goals to what we would expect from the likes of Kane and Heung-Min Son or does Bale eat into their production somewhat? I am hoping it is the former but cannot help recognize it may be the latter. I also took a look to check when Kane last had an assist, because it felt like it had been a while, and boy it has. He had reached double digit assists by Week 11, only to now have registered one since, which encompasses twelve starts. Hey, to be fair, Kane was a regular armband favorite before the assists showed up this season, so he can still be one without those. I think if all players are on a single game gameweek, then Kane edges into my shortlist based on reputation and his underlying stats show that the recent funk is not from a lack of chances. What can I say, it’s tough to be a fair judge of a player you just got a lackluster triple captain return from. Kane, Bale, and/or Son all have the potential to validate an armband, so I will note them in this week’s column, but I think the fixture is a bit misleading as playing at home does not carry the same weight in the Covid era and Spurs are catching Palace at perhaps precisely the wrong time, as the Eagles defensive work of late has their confidence running high.
And that’s about it folks. I suppose it is somewhat of a blessing to have the captaincy option narrowed down to just a few. It makes the selection process less difficult and leaves you feeling your odds of hitting a good player are increased. I am just combing through these other matches and, while there are plenty of players with the ability to haul a huge score, the matchups are putting me off. I know Chelsea v Everton has players from each side that have been in the captaincy conversation before, but that is a tough fixture to call for me. Same with West Ham v Leeds and Villa v Wolves. I really do think, even though it may sound obvious, that you are best left to gamble on a City player for this round and maybe send Pep Guardiola a thank you card beforehand, with a screenshot of the player you plan to captain.
Hit me up on Twitter @FuzzyWarbles and let me know your thoughts on who you’ve nominated for captain and why. Good luck with your selection this weekend and may your arrows be green.
