Yesterday the Bet the EDGE crew talked about the races in the AL East and West and offered their thoughts and corresponding plays as the second half of the baseball season gets underway. While the Orioles and Astros’ prospects interested them, Jay Croucher’s (@croucherJD) favorite play lies in the National League.
“My favorite bet of the Pennant and World Series markets is the New York Mets. There’s still some 30:1 about on the Mets. I think the consensus price in the market is more like 22:1 or 25:1, but if you shop around, you should be able to get 30:1.”
Drew Dinsick’s (@whale_capper) response…
“Oh no.”
Drew needed to hear Jay lay out the case to jump all in on the Mets.
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“I think the sneaky-ish thing about the National League is that with the injuries that the Dodgers and Braves have suffered, I don’t think there is like an overwhelming juggernaut in that league. I think the Phillies should actually be the favorite for the National League, just with their pitching, with the fact that they’re like seven games up on the Dodgers, and so they’ll likely have home field throughout (the playoffs). But I think that, like, if you’re just looking at it, the Mets are 30:1. They’re a 50% chance to make the playoffs. If they make the playoffs, are they going to be like, you know, 14:1 or 15:1 to win the Pennant? Like, I don’t think so. I don’t think any team is dominant enough in the NL to get them to that level.”
There is value in the current price for the Mets to win the National League crown, but a good number does not always mean a smart play. We need more of an explanation from Croucher.
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He continued.
“Kodai Senga is about to come back. The offense is just awesome. It’s just an extremely talented offense that is really clicking now that Francisco Alvarez is back. Francisco Lindor is playing like a Top 4 MVP candidate. So, I think the Mets are legitimate. I think as well, you talk about trade deadline upside, like with Cohen’s pockets, I think the team is deep enough now that they could actually add a pitcher. They add a pitcher, and all of a sudden, like Severino has been really good. Manaea has been fine. Quintana is fine as a fourth or fifth guy, and then you have Senga, was a legitimate ace last year. The bullpen is a mess, and that’s something they’ll have to address…But I think the Mets are pretty compelling just from a talent perspective, and I think that they will be more likely to buy than sell now.”
Intrigued by the play but Dinsick could not get all the way to the Mets winning the World Series…and hoped Croucher felt similarly.
“You like them more for NL than you do for World Series,” Dinsick hoped.
“I do, for the most part. Their World Series price has just doubled their NL price, and on average, they’ll be dogs in the World Series, just given that they very like or they almost certainly won’t have home field advantage in the World Series and probably go up against the superior team.”
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In the end, Drew acknowledged the argument is plausible, but he could not get there personally.
“Yeah, you make a strong case. You didn’t even bring up the grimace karma. Yes, I do worry that you mentioned Francisco Lindor, and now he’s probably going to get hurt. Otherwise, that was a strong case.”
Jay closed with a final push for the Metropolitans.
“I’m all in on the Mets. I love the Mets. I love this team. I love Grimace. I love Lindor. I love Edwin Diaz’ walk-in music. I love it all. So, I think they, they have upside, and they have scope to make this interesting.”
Let the games begin…or I guess continue after a too long All-Star Break.
