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For Wednesday, I’m looking at a game in my favorite conference to bet this season: The SEC. I explain why I like Mississippi State to get a huge win at home and Jacksonville State to remain red-hot in the Atlantic Sun Conference.
Odds are opening lines courtesy of PointsBet
Tennessee Volunteers at Mississippi State Bulldogs (+2)
Mississippi State comes limping into this matchup just 2-4 in its last six games. Still, I’m backing the desperate Bulldogs at home on Wednesday. Most projections have Mississippi State on the wrong side of the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament. This really is a must-win situation for the Bulldogs if they plan on making the Field of 68.
Tennessee is a team I’ve faded quite a bit this season, especially away from home where the Vols are 4-6. The metrics love Tennessee but the Vols still rely way too much on the three-point shot for my liking. Tennessee ranks 48th in three-point scoring rate, so when those shots aren’t falling, the Vols’ offense bogs down.
Key Metric: Mississippi State’s free throw rate
If you follow my articles, you know three metrics I like to use in projected close games are rebounding, turnovers, and free throw shooting. In my experience, those often decide tight games. I mentioned this when I took Arkansas over Auburn on Tuesday. The one advantage the Hogs had was free throw attempts and they ended up shooting 26-for-32 at the line in the overtime win.
Like Arkansas, Mississippi State has a big edge in this matchup when it comes to shooting free throws. The Bulldogs rank 59th in free throw scoring rate and 19th in free throw attempt rate, according to Haslametrics. Meanwhile, Tennessee ranks 292nd in free throw scoring rate and 221st in attempts per game.
Free throws aren’t everything but these two teams are evenly matched on paper. If the Bulldogs can draw fouls and generate points from the line, Mississippi State won’t have to rely as much on outside shooting. That’s an area where the Bulldogs struggle. Mississippi State ranks 250th in three-point percentage.
The other reason I like Mississippi State here is because they are finally getting healthy. The Bulldogs have three primary scorers in Iverson Molinar (18.2 PPG), Tolu Smith (12.9 PPG), and Garrison Brooks (11.4 PPG).
The problem is Smith has been limited to just nine games because of injuries. The 6-11 forward returned against Arkansas after missing two weeks and his presence is crucial to a team that gets a lot of its points in the paint, ranking 28th in two-point scoring rate.
This is a do or die game for Mississippi State and assuming Smith doesn’t suffer a setback, I like the way the Bulldogs big-three scorers match up against a tough Tennessee defense. I’d bet Mississippi State as an underdog or up to a 2-point favorite if the line moves that way.
Pick: Mississippi State +2
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Jacksonville State Gamecocks (-6) at Stetson Hatters
A lot of people might not know the Jacksonville State Gamecocks but if they make the NCAA Tournament, no team will want to see them as an opponent in the opening round. The Gamecocks rebound well and can shoot the lights out from beyond the arc.
Jacksonville State enters Wednesday 11-1 in its last 12 games. Stetson is 3-5 in its last eight games and home court hasn’t been much of an advantage for them this season. The Hatters are just 1-4 in its last five home games with three of those losses coming by 16, 28, and 25 points.
Key Metric: Jacksonville State’s three-point shooting
The Gamecocks are one of the top three-point shooting teams in college basketball with 42.3 percent of their attempts coming from beyond the arc. Jacksonville State ranks 30th in three-point scoring rate and seventh in three-point shooting percentage at a sizzling 39.5%.
Jacksonville State’s reliance on the outside shot should pay off big-time against Stetson. The Hatters have one of the worst three-point defenses in the country. Stetson ranks 268th in three-point field goal defense and gives up 35.1 percent of its opponent’s points from beyond the arc. The Hatters play a lot of zone and it hasn’t been effective this season against good three-point shooting teams.
Led by star guard Darian Adams (15.0 PPG), Jacksonville State features five regular players who shoot over 34 percent from three-point range. Expect the Gamecocks to get a lot of open looks against the Stetson zone. Unless Jacksonville State is ice cold from long range, it should have no trouble scoring against a poor Hatters’ defense.
This game opened Jacksonville State -6. I think we are getting a couple points of value on the line. I’d bet the Gamecocks up to -8.
Pick: Jacksonville State -6
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