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It’s always fun to cash a ticket of any shape or size, but there’s something special about taking an underdog and watching them go toe-to-toe with an opponent for the entire game.
Some teams deserve to be hefty favorites - we even highlighted a few we like in Week 8. But others are on shaky footing, either because of injury issues, situational circumstances or just an old-fashioned matchup against an undervalued opponent.
And while some underdogs are able to start with a handful of points and hang tight against the spread, others are able to flip the script entirely with an outright win. Just look at last week, when Eric Froton and Zach Krueger both predicted Texas State would stay inside the number against Troy.
Here are our staff underdog picks for Week 8, with some big numbers spread all across the country:
Vaughn Dalzell (@VMoneySports): Buffalo (+7) over Toledo
Entering this game, Buffalo is 5-1-1 ATS (83.3%), covering and winning four straight games. On the other side, Toledo has covered three straight and is 4-3 ATS (57.1%) on the season. Toledo has laid -6.5 or -7.5 in all three of those recent contests, so this line holds no value for the road Rockets.
In this MAC series, Buffalo has won two in a row against Toledo and in the last seven meetings, the Bulls have gone 5-2 ATS while covering five of the last six.
Buffalo put up 203 rushing yards on UMass, 280 rushing yards on Bowling Green and 201 on the ground against Eastern Michigan in three of the past four games. Both teams lean on the ground game, and Buffalo has the better rush defense and passing offense of the two squads.
Give me the Bulls. They just might be the best team in the MAC.
YTD Record: 1-6 ATS, 1 outright win
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Mississippi State (+21) over Alabama
So far this year Alabama has had trouble pulling away from quality Power 5 opponents, with the Tide winning games against Texas and Texas A&M by a combined five points in addition to dropping last week’s 52-49 decision to Tennessee. The only above average team they’ve really put the screws to was Arkansas, and even that came as a result of two 70+ yard touchdown runs in the fourth quarter from Jahmyr Gibbs to hit the 23-point margin of victory.
The Bulldogs were rolling along at 5-1 before running into a stout Kentucky front that held MSU to 225 yards, with UK scoring a late touchdown to seal the 27-17 victory. They beat Arizona, Texas A&M and Arkansas while their two losses were by 10- and 16-point margins. Miss. State’s pass defense ranks 26th overall, while their offense is posting a 50% success rate (18th) with a 3.1 points per drive average that ranks 22nd nationally. I think Mississippi State is just good enough running the ball this year (162 rush yards vs. Arkansas, 144 vs. A&M) that they can help to balance out their offense a little more and keep Alabama from pinning their ears back on the rush and allowing the secondary to jump pass lanes on MSU’s quick timing routes. I’m picking HC Mike Leach in his third year at the helm of MSU to keep this game respectable against an Alabama team that is really good, but not up to the standard of previous seasons.
YTD Record: 5-2 ATS, 4 outright wins
Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas): Syracuse (+13.5) over Clemson
The 6-0 Syracuse Orange travel to Death Valley as 13.5-point underdogs in hopes of handing Clemson their first loss of the season. Beating the Tigers at Memorial Stadium is no easy feat, hence the Death Valley nickname. While the Orange might not come away with the win, 13.5 points are just too many for the Tigers to cover.
On paper, both teams are relatively even, but Syracuse has been undervalued all season. The duo of quarterback Garret Shrader and running back Sean Tucker should test Clemson’s defense. Tucker is one of the more involved running backs in college football, and Shrader has been remarkably efficient. I expect the 5-1 ATS ORange to challenge and keep pace with the Tigers while covering the 13.5-point spread.
YTD Record: 3-4 ATS, 2 outright wins
Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB): Syracuse (+13.5) over Clemson
In a battle of two undefeated teams, Syracuse (6-0) heads into Death Valley to take on the 7-0 Tigers. Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has enjoyed a bounce-back season (1665-17-2) but should have his work cut out for him against a Syracuse defense that ranks 36th in overall success rate (39.4%) and sixth in passing success rate (32.4%). In addition to their perfect record, the Orange are also 5-1 ATS, covering by an average of 8.5 points per game. Quarterback Garret Shrader is one of the more versatile quarterbacks in the nation, throwing for 1427-12-3 while adding another 78-300-5 on the ground. Running back Sean Tucker (124-644-6) is a future NFL back in the making, and has totaled 842 yards and seven touchdowns from scrimmage while ranking 10th in the nation in yards from scrimmage.
These two teams meet each year, and Syracuse has covered in each of the last two games against Clemson. That includes last year’s 17-14 contest, where the Orange narrowly missed pulling off the home upset while also catching 13.5 points. With two stout defenses set to face off in this one, there’s a good chance it looks more like the knock-down, drag-out fight we saw last season, with Syracuse keeping it close throughout.
YTD Record: 2-5 ATS, 1 outright win