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Week 6 featured some exciting breakouts in DFS, with perhaps the most exciting coming from TCU receiver Quentin Johnston.
Through the first five weeks of the season, Johnston had yet to top 41 yards in a single game, and had no touchdowns to show for his efforts. He was quickly turning into a player that everyone would regret not playing when he finally went off, and last week presented that very scenario.
Last weekend against Kansas, Johnston saw an absurd 17 targets and turned them into 14 receptions for 206 yards and one touchdown. His 43.6 points on DraftKings ranked third among receivers on the week, while his biggest play of the day came on a 53-yard catch and run.
Those hoping for another big performance by Johnston this week against Oklahoma State can get him at a generous $6,700 price, which happens to be $100 less than his $6,800 price point from last week.
Below are my favorite plays from last week and how they played out.
It was a solid week overall, with four of my players tripling their value or better, but a wide receiver-heavy slate that saw four receivers go for 40+ points on the afternoon made life tough for fellow CFB DFS players.
With Week 7 now upon us, let’s have a look at this weekend’s slate and some players I’m targeting for my lineups.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
The Play Rates
Team | Rush Rate | Play Rate |
Alabama | 45.7% | 54.3% |
Arkansas | 63.6% | 36.0% |
Auburn | 52.8% | 46.0% |
BYU | 46.7% | 53.0% |
Illinois | 54.4% | 45.4% |
Indiana | 33.8% | 65.4% |
Kansas | 56.8% | 42.9% |
Maryland | 44.2% | 55.5% |
Miami | 43.2% | 56.8% |
Michigan | 56.3% | 43.7% |
Michigan State | 39.8% | 58.9% |
Minnesota | 57.9% | 40.5% |
NC State | 45.1% | 54.1% |
Ohio | 40.8% | 57.9% |
Oklahoma | 52.6% | 47.4% |
Oklahoma State | 48.0% | 52.0% |
Ole Miss | 60.1% | 39.4% |
Penn State | 51.5% | 48.5% |
Syracuse | 52.8% | 47.2% |
TCU | 46.5% | 53.1% |
Tennessee | 51.7% | 48.3% |
Texas | 46.8% | 52.8% |
Virginia Tech | 47.8% | 51.7% |
Western Michigan | 50.0% | 47.8% |
Wisconsin | 57.7% | 40.2% |
Quarterback Rush Attempts
Player | Team | Attempts | Yards | Touchdowns |
Alabama | 16 | 268 | 1 | |
Alabama | 0 | 184 | 3 | |
Arkansas | 57 | 358 | 4 | |
Auburn | 31 | 325 | 1 | |
Auburn | 3 | 68 | 1 | |
BYU | 23 | 118 | 0 | |
Illinois | 21 | 98 | 3 | |
Indiana | 12 | 37 | 0 | |
Kansas | 49 | 339 | 5 | |
Kansas | 12 | 64 | 1 | |
Maryland | 17 | 122 | 2 | |
Miami | 5 | 27 | 0 | |
Michigan State | 12 | 112 | 0 | |
Michigan | 20 | 121 | 1 | |
Minnesota | 9 | 66 | 3 | |
NC State | 11 | 42 | 3 | |
Ohio | 30 | 163 | 2 | |
Oklahoma State | 41 | 259 | 6 | |
Oklahoma | 11 | 158 | 2 | |
Ole Miss | 32 | 262 | 0 | |
Penn State | 16 | 90 | 4 | |
Syracuse | 31 | 285 | 5 | |
TCU | 21 | 256 | 3 | |
Tennessee | 24 | 284 | 3 | |
Texas | 0 | 17 | 0 | |
Virginia Tech | 28 | 161 | 2 | |
Jack Salopek | Western Michigan | 8 | 180 | 0 |
Wisconsin | 3 | 39 | 1 |
Mispriced Player of the Week
Sieh Bangura, RB (Ohio)
DraftKings: $5,500
Over the last two weeks, Sieh Bangura has handled 59.6 of the team’s overall rush attempts, going for 34-189-4 over that span. Now heading into his third-straight game against MAC competition, Bangura appears to be the lead back in the Bobcats’ backfield, and now gets a Western Michigan team that’s surrendered big fantasy performances to No. 1 backs.
In their last three games against FBS competition, Western Michigan has allowed 28.3, 20.1 and 22.8 fantasy points to opposing lead backs. As a team, the Bobcats have rushed for 128+ yards in four of six games on the season. In their two worst rushing games of the season, they were shut down by Penn State and Iowa State -- as one might expect.
The Bobcats rank 31st in the nation in yards per play (6.5) and are 49th in offensive success rate (45.5%). On the flip side, Western Michigan’s defensive success rate ranks among the worst at 123rd in the nation (48.9%).
Kurtis Rourke, QB (Ohio)
DraftKings: $6,200
Sticking with the Bobcats here, quarterback Kurtis Rourke looks like another juicy play against the Broncos this weekend. In his last three games, Rourke has averaged 36.7 points per game on DraftKings, throwing for 1,286 yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions over that span while adding another 19-78-1 on the ground.
Rourke has thrown two interceptions on the season, with both coming in a Week 3 road game against Iowa State. His 1,944 passing yards rank fifth in the nation, while his 70.9 completion percentage is good for 10th. Rourke has also been one of the deep ball passers early on, completing 48.3% of his 29 deep ball attempts for 548 yards and five touchdowns to one interception.
As previously mentioned, Western Michigan’s defense is one of the worst in the nation in defensive success rate. Looking solely at their defensive success rate against the pass, the Broncos rank 104th (46.2%).
Rourke could be in for a big day on Saturday in a game that has an over/under of 59.5. If your heart desires, you could correlate Rourke with Western Michigan QB Jack Salopek ($6,300). Salopek hasn’t been nearly as impressive as Rourke, but he does get an Ohio pass defense that ranks 119th in defensive success rate (50.1%).
Graham Mertz, QB (Wisconsin)
DraftKings Price: $5,300
This one feels risky given that Wisconsin is one of the most run-heavy teams on the slate, rushing at a 57.7% rate. However, Graham Mertz is fresh off the best performance of his career after he threw for 299 yards and five touchdowns against Northwestern. Priced at $5,100 last week, Mertz drastically outplayed his salary by hanging 31.96 fantasy points on the Wildcats last week and now gets a bad Michigan State defense in Week 7.
You don’t have to look hard at Mertz’s 2022 stat line to see why he could be a risky play this week, but as one of the cheaper quarterbacks on the slate, he’s worth a shot. The Spartans rank 128th in defensive success rate against the pass (52.4%) and have allowed 339.0 passing yards and 3.5 touchdown passes per game over the last four weeks.
Even against a run-heavy Minnesota team in Week 4, the Spartans allowed 263/3 through the air. Mertz’s No. 1 receiver, Chimere Dike, went for 10-185-3 last week against Northwestern and is coming in at $5,600 this week. Dike leads the team with a line of 25-442-4 on 36 targets and is averaging 17.7 YPR. He’s seen 74.1% of his snaps come from the slot, which should put him in a position to see some easy targets on Saturday.
Devin Neal, RB (Kansas)
DraftKings Price: $5,700
Kansas running back Daniel Hishaw is likely to be sidelined for this weekend’s matchup against Oklahoma. Additionally, quarterback Jalon Daniels (shoulder), who exited last week’s game against TCU is questionable at best, which could put Jason Bean in line for his first start of the season.
Together, Hishaw and Daniels have combined to rush for 95-598-7 -- accounting for 45.5% of the team’s rushing yards on the season.
Should Bean draw the start, the former North Texas quarterback does offer some rushing upside similar to Daniels, but Devin Neal should be in line for a big day.
Through the first five games of the season, Neal was narrowly edging out Hishaw in rush attempts.
However, In Week 6, with Hishaw sidelined, Neal led all running backs with 14 carries and 92 rushing yards. Redshirt sophomore Ky Thomas was second among running backs in rushing with a line of 5-20.
Neal should be in line for a good workload against an Oklahoma team that’s allowing the 10th-most rushing yards per game (214.5) in the nation. As one might expect, the Sooners are also bottom in the nation in success rate against the run (47.3%) and have allowed 275+ rushing yards in each of their last three games.
Rushing at a 58.2% clip, the Jayhawks love to keep the ball on the ground. There’s no reason to think they won’t enjoy success against this Sooners team in a game where Neal could serve as the bell cow of the offense.
Raheim Sanders, RB (Arkansas)
DraftKings: $6,500
Arkansas will hopefully have quarterback K.J. Jefferson back for this one after being cleared to return to practice on Monday. As a result, the Razorbacks’ offense should be humming against a BYU team that just allowed 28 points to Notre Dame.
BYU is another team that has struggled against the run this season. The Cougars are surrendering 174.5 rushing yards per game and are allowing a 47.3% success rate. At a $6,500 price point, Raheim Sanders is the 15th-highest-priced back on the slate, but is sixth in fantasy points per game on DraftKings (24.8).
One of the more explosive backs in the nation, Sanders ranks fifth in the nation with 717 rushing yards and is tied for fourth in runs of 10+ yards (19). He’s seen 20+ carries in five of six games and has shown a decent receiving floor. His 12.5 YPR ranks 14th among running backs.
The Razorbacks are the most run-heavy team on the slate. I don’t expect them to back down from the ground game against BYU.
Cam Camper, WR (Indiana)
DraftKings Price: $5,800
Indiana wide receiver Cam Camper has been a target hog through the Hoosiers’ first six games of the season. Playing in an offense that’s throwing at a 65.4% rate, Camper’s 69 targets are 33 more than the team’s second-most targeted receiver. He’s hauled in just over half of those targets, going for 35-457-1 on the season, but he’s averaging 18.3 fantasy points per game on DraftKings, which includes a dismal 2-39-0 line last week against Michigan.
Camper and company should find a bit more success against Maryland this weekend. The Terps have allowed two or more passing touchdowns in four of six games this season and gave up a combined 729/5 against SMU and Purdue -- two of the more pass-heavy teams in the nation.
Sam Wiglusz, WR (Ohio)
DraftKings Price: $5,000
I’m all in on Ohio this week -- for better or worse. The Bobcat’s highest-priced receiver, James Bostic ($5,400) is the third-leading receiver on the team and is fourth in targets -- that’s DraftKings pricing for you.
Sam Wiglusz is Ohio’s second-highest-priced receiver on the slate, despite leading the team in every receiving category (35-443-5) and leads the team with 41 targets. Wiglusz has seen 95.8% of his snaps come from the slot and has seen six or more targets in all but one game this season. In his last two games, Wiglusz has gone for 13-259-3, averaging an explosive 19.9 YPR.
If you’re looking for a less-chalky play in Ohio’s passing attack, you can look to Jacoby Jones ($3,600). Jones is second on the team in receiving (21-340-2) on just 26 targets but flew under the radar early.
After starting the season with a 6-89-0 receiving line through three games, Jones saw seven targets last week against Akron (7-121-0) and had eight in Week 4 against Fordham (6-104-2). Jones has been elite early on in the deep game, securing all four of his targets for an absurd 4-206-3 receiving line. He’s more of a boom-or-bust play this week against Western Michigan, but we could imply that based on his price.