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College football continues to deliver unexpected excitement -- especially in the world of DFS. Two LSU Tigers managed to crack the optimal lineup in their 45-20 win over Ole Miss, with quarterback Jayden Daniels turning in a 51-point performance at $7,700 and running back Josh Williams going for 19.1 points at a stone minimum price of $3,000.
One of the worst plays on the week, my mispriced player of the week, rushed for 3-17-1 against UNLV, but a lost fumble ended what started as a promising day for the Notre Dame power back.
The rest of my plays are as follows -- with some up-and-down players mixed in there.
My favorite play of the week, Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer, turned in a solid 26.5 points at his $5,000 price point and is $5,600 in this week’s game against Syracuse. I love Mayer again in Week 9, but will put off the lengthy tout as we sort of know what he is at this point. If Mayer was a receiver, he’d be regularly priced as one of the top pass-catchers on the slate, but the fact that he’s a tight end continues to suppress his price despite his 44-526-6 receiving line.
With another exciting week on tap, let’s dive into Week 9’s main slate!
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
The Play Rates
Team | Rush Rate | Pass Rate |
Arkansas | 61.5% | 38.1% |
Auburn | 55.4% | 43.7% |
California | 39.7% | 59.6% |
Cincinnati | 47.2% | 51.7% |
Florida | 54.6% | 44.1% |
Florida State | 48.8% | 50.9% |
Georgia | 45.5% | 54.5% |
Georgia Tech | 48.3% | 51.3% |
Illinois | 55.8% | 44.0% |
Iowa State | 38.9% | 60.0% |
Kansas State | 60.6% | 39.4% |
Louisville | 56.0% | 42.9% |
Minnesota | 58.2% | 39.8% |
Nebraska | 50.7% | 48.4% |
Notre Dame | 57.1% | 42.4% |
Ohio State | 50.7% | 49.0% |
Oklahoma | 52.5% | 47.2% |
Oklahoma State | 46.6% | 53.4% |
Oregon | 53.3% | 46.7% |
Penn State | 50.3% | 49.7% |
Rutgers | 55.6% | 43.9% |
Syracuse | 51.4% | 48.6% |
TCU | 50.5% | 49.3% |
UCF | 54.5% | 44.3% |
Wake Forest | 48.0% | 51.0% |
West Virginia | 45.1% | 54.2% |
Quarterback Rush Attempts
Player | Team | Attempts | Yards | Touchdowns |
Arkansas | 67 | 390 | 4 | |
Auburn | 37 | 388 | 3 | |
California | 8 | 105 | 1 | |
Cincinnati | 15 | 70 | 0 | |
Florida | 35 | 395 | 6 | |
Florida State | 26 | 277 | 2 | |
Georgia Tech | 49 | 405 | 1 | |
Georgia | 18 | 168 | 5 | |
Illinois | 24 | 113 | 4 | |
Iowa State | 25 | 143 | 2 | |
Kansas State | 73 | 615 | 9 | |
Malik Cunningham | Louisville | 51 | 535 | 9 |
Minnesota | 11 | 91 | 4 | |
Nebraska | 14 | 118 | 5 | |
Notre Dame | 11 | 111 | 0 | |
C.J. Stroud | Ohio State | 11 | 5 | 0 |
Oklahoma State | 53 | 371 | 8 | |
Oklahoma | 19 | 188 | 3 | |
Oregon | 35 | 376 | 8 | |
Penn State | 21 | 164 | 4 | |
Rutgers | 13 | 45 | 1 | |
Syracuse | 59 | 455 | 6 | |
TCU | 39 | 359 | 4 | |
UCF | 70 | 558 | 7 | |
West Virginia | 6 | 18 | 1 | |
Wake Forest | 20 | 145 | 1 |
Mispriced Player of the Week
J. Michael Sturdivant, WR (California)
DraftKings Price: $5,000
Cal is one of the more pass-heavy teams on the slate and gets an Oregon team that’s allowing the 18th-most receiving yards per game (273.4). The team’s leading receiver, J. Michael Sturdivant (37-445-5) is tops on the team with 57 targets and went for 8-104-2 last week against Washington, going for 100+ yards for the first time on the year.
Sturdivant is averaging 16.2 fantasy points per game on DraftKings and is facing an Oregon team that’s laying 17 points on the road. A negative game script could force the already pass-heavy Bears into high-volume passing day against the Ducks. Cal’s wide receiver situation took an interesting turn last week against Washington as well, with the team’s second-leading receiver, Jeremiah Hunter, stuck on the sideline for the day.
Hunter ($5,000) could return in Week 9, but even if he does, Sturdivant has been the No. 1 target in this offense all season. I like him to soak up a few more targets in a game that should require the Bears to pass if they hope to stick around.
Garrett Shrader, QB (Syracuse)
DraftKings Price: $5,900
Syracuse narrowly escaped Week 8 with a win over Clemson but were instead handed their first loss of the season in a 27-21 defeat. Now, the Orange return home to place a mediocre Notre Dame team, looking to rebound from a disappointing loss.
Through seven games, Garrett Shrader has thrown for 1601-13-4, and rushed for another 59-455-6. One of the more aggressive running quarterbacks in the nation, Shrader is averaging 26.7 points per game on DraftKings, and has been priced as high as $7,800 at various points of the season.
Shrader ranks as the QB9 on the slate in fantasy points per game but is getting priced as the QB31. Notre Dame has limited opposing signal callers at times but has proven susceptible on the ground -- where Shrader also thrives.
Syracuse opened this week as 2.5-point favorites and has since been bumped to three-point favorites. The Orange should see plenty of runs from Shrader and running back Sean Tucker ($7,000, 129-698-6) if game script allows it. Shrader only needs 17.7 points to triple his value, which feels like a layup when you consider he’s scored 24.22 fantasy points or more in all but one game this season.
Hunter Dekkers, QB (Iowa State)
DraftKings Price: $5,300
Iowa State is one of the most pass-heavy teams on the slate and has a chance to be the latest team to score all over Oklahoma.
The Sooners rank 103rd in the nation in points allowed per game (31.0) and have allowed 41 or more points in each of their four games against Big 12 competition. Hunter Dekkers has thrown for 1843-13-7 on the season and is averaging 19.3 points per game on DraftKings. His connection with wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson ($7,900, 67-758-5) has proven profitable for DFS players, with Hutchinson averaging 26.4 points per game on the season. Hutchinson is the highest-priced receiver on the slate, but that doesn’t feel like a steep price to pay in a full-PPR format. Hutchinson’s 100 targets are far and away the most on Iowa State, with Jaylin Noel (35-378-2) ranking second with 48 targets.
Noel, who plays primarily from the slot (80.4%) is another interesting option at $4,600 on the week but is a bit more touchdown dependent than Hutchinson.
Dekkers and company have a chance to light up the Sooners this weekend -- especially in a friendly home-field environment. Fresh off his best fantasy performance of the season in Week 7 against Texas (31.16 points), Dekkers could top that performance in Week 9.
Lawrance Toafili, RB (Florida State)
DraftKings Price: ($3,900)
Prior to Florida State’s bye Week, Lawrance Toafili was announced as one of Seminoles’ two starting running backs against Clemson. In that game, Toafili rushed for 11-68-0 while also catching six passes for 45 yards. Toafili led all Noles running backs with 59 snaps on the day with Treshaun Ward being ruled out after suffering a shoulder injury in Week 6. That injury could be enough to keep Ward sidelined in Week 9, although if active, he becomes an intriguing play at $5,300.
Currently 24-point home favorites, Florida State should have ample opportunity to run the ball on a Georgia Tech defense that’s allowing 177.4 rushing yards per game.
Toafili’s solid performance against Clemson should be enough to earn him another start in Week 9 if Ward is unable to go. He also comes in at $700 less than Trey Benson ($4,600), who is second on the team in rushing but played well behind Toafili vs. Clemson.
Kendre Miller, RB (TCU)
DraftKings Price: $6,300
I simply can’t quit TCU running back Kendre Miller. I’m sorry.
Miller is one of the more grossly mispriced players on the slate at $6,300 despite the fact that he ranks 25th in the nation in total yards from scrimmage (804) and is 18th in rushing yards (731) while averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
Miller has rushed for 100+ yards in four of seven games this season and has rushed for 130+ yards in three games. The TCU product is averaging a solid 3.71 YCO/ATT -- good for 43rd in the nation, and is 18th overall in yards after contact (445).
Miller and the Horned Frogs are riding a 7-0 record and have scored 38 or more points in every game this season -- a rather impressive accomplishment at this point. The Mountaineers are allowing the 15th-most points per game on the season (33.7) and have allowed two games of 200+ rushing yards to opposing offenses. In last week’s 48-10 loss to Texas Tech, West Virginia allowed 239 rushing yards and three scores, and are now 7.5-point home underdogs to TCU this weekend.
Assuming TCU has a strong day on the ground in this one, that should come primarily through Miller, whose 120 rush attempts are 76 more than the next leading rusher.
Quentin Johnston, WR (TCU)
DraftKings Price $7,200
Sticking with TCU players here for a moment, it’s hard to ignore the recent success Quentin Johnston has seen. After a slow start to the season in which he failed to surpass 41 receiving yards through the first four weeks, Johnston has now totaled 26-460-3 over the last three games, drawing 39 targets over that span.
An explosive receiver and a potential first-round draft pick in next year’s NFL Draft, Johnston should continue his recent hot streak in Week 9 against the Mountaineers, who are allowing the 15th-most passing yards per game (275.7) to go along with their overall defensive struggles.
The folks at DraftKings are well-aware of Johnston’s latest string of games, pricing him as the sixth-most expensive receiver on the slate. However, over his last three games, Johnston has been a legitimate target hog, posting an absurd 41.5% target share during that span.
One of the truest No. 1 receivers in the nation, Johnston could very easily return value against a West Virginia team that allowed 113 yards to him last season.
Tyler Scott, WR (Cincinnati)
DraftKings Price: $6,900
This one doesn’t come without warning, as Tyler Scott missed last week’s game against SMU with an ankle injury. However, head coach Luke Fickell said he’s hopeful Scott will be able to suit up in this week’s game against UCF. Keep a close eye on this one come game day.
Cincinnati Bearcats coach Luke Fickell said he hopes WR Tyler Scott (ankle) will be ready for Saturday at UCF. Scott watched last week's win at SMU from the sideline in a walking boot.
— Keith Jenkins (@MrKeithJenkins) October 25, 2022
Scott has 28 catches for a team-high 500 yards and a career-high 6 TDs this season.
Assuming he’s active, Scott will return as Cincinnati’s lead receiver after going for 29-505-6 through the Bearcats’ first six games of the season. Averaging an impressive 17.4 yards per reception, Scott has shown versatility at all areas of the field. He’s caught 44.8% of his passes 10 yards or further downfield and has gone for 241/4 on 13 deep ball attempts.
Not counting the Week 6 game against USF in which he saw just one offensive snap before exiting, Scott’s worst game of the season game in a 3-47-1 performance against Kennesaw State in a game the Bearcats won 63-10. Outside of that, Scott has gone for 77+ yards in four of five full games this season and has scored a touchdown in every game but Week 1.
Scott has been a problem for opposing defenses all season and will need to step up against a UCF defense that’s allowing 17.1 points per game. He would need a 20.7-point performance to triple his $6,900 price point.
