Vaughn Dalzell breaks down the Big 12 matchup between the West Virginia Mountaineers and Houston Cougars.
West Virginia (-3) at Houston: O/U 49.5
West Virginia was a -6.5 point road favorite and this number has been bet down, but I won’t lie, I like the Mountaineers.
The WVU ground game should prove to be pivotal in this matchup and a lot of what Houston does well, West Virginia can negate. On the other hand, most of what Houston is subpar at, WVU can exploit.
For example, Houston is 30th in third-down offense (46.1%), while WVU ranks 10th in third-down defense (27.8%). The Cougars ranks 65th in passing efficiency and the Mountaineers are 27th in passing efficiency on defense.
However, the two biggest discrepancies are the red zone and WVU’s rushing attack versus Houston’s rushing defense.
WVU is tied for 41st in red-zone defense (76.9%) with their opponents’ 13 red-zone trips being the 9th-fewest in the country. Houston’s allowed opponents to score on 14 of 17 red-zone trips (82.4%) and has a bottom 25 red-zone offense (72.7%) behind teams like USF and Arkansas State.
The Mountaineers’ 31st-ranked rushing attack averages 191.8 yards per game (4.26 ypc), while the Cougars’ rushing defense is 97th with 163.6 yards permitted per game (4.57 ypc).
WVU runs 45 times per game and teams like UTSA (208 yards), TCU (250 yards), and Texas Tech (239 yards) ran all over Houston this season. The only teams Houston held under 200 rushing yards this year are Sam Houston State and Rice.
I grabbed the Mountaineers on the ML at -146 odds and risked 1 unit. This is around -150 and -146 was the best price I could find.
It’s a road game for the favorite and considering the line movement, I will settle for the ML on WVU. I wouldn’t talk anyone off the -2.5 or -3 on WVU for a better return.
Pick: West Virginia ML (Risk 1u)
Season Record: 33-19-1 +13.34u
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