After golf’s fourth and final major is in the books, we focus on the fourth annual 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, MN. Due to the closing of the major season and a few big names departing for LIV, the field is not strong, featuring just three golfers inside the top 25; Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, and Sungjae Im.
TPC Twin Cities is a course that requires great ball striking and accurate shots off the tee. The greens are quick, but birdies can be made in bunches here, which is evident from the winning scores in the last three years, being 21-under, 19-under, and 15-under. Last year the course was windy for the opening two rounds, and still, golfers could post low scores on the previous two rounds. As the forecast stands, there is a strong wind on Thursday, which dies down a bit for the rest of the tournament.
Historically, the winners of this tournament are long shots. While I think the event’s winner is sitting somewhere around the +2200 range, I have mixed in a couple of longshot golfers who I think can win this week. These odds can be found on PointsBet Sportsbook:
Davis Riley to win (+2200)
Riley is a golfer who is on the verge of breaking through. Over the last year, he’s made significant strides forward. He’s become a better ball striker and has improved his driving accuracy. He’s hitting greens at a 68% clip. This allows him to have a bunch of birdie looks. He’s the top-ranked golfer in BoB Gained. If this tournament turns into a birdie fest, I’d like Riley’s chances to burry enough to have a chance to win this week.
Sahith Theegala to win (+2200)
When thinking about a golfer ready to make that leap into stardom, I think about Theegala. He’s seemingly corrected his waywardness off the tee and is an elite ball striker. He’s had a few close calls this year, most notably his second-place finish at the Travelers. It’s just a matter of time before Theegala is consistently winning tournaments.
When looking at his stats over his last 10 tournaments, it’s hard not to fall in love with his game against this field. The only spot he’s not gaining strokes is on the putting surface, where he was losing -0.5 strokes per round. However, that number improves to +0.2 per round when looking at just his last five tournaments. He fits the course mold and is someone who should be getting their first win soon.
Adam Hadwin to win (+2500)
Hadwin has had a solid season thus. No wins yet, but he’s trending in the right direction. His latest blemish was a missed cut at the John Deere, a tournament in which he was one of two favorites who performed terribly. He must improve his ball striking to have a realistic chance at winning this week. That is something he shouldn’t have a problem with because what he lacks in distance off the tee, he makes up with great skill with his irons.
Hadwin is skilled around the greens and in the bunkers. Both of which will help him at TPC Twin Cities. He’s also top five in BoB Gained per round. He has a great history at this event, with two top-five finishes in his last two trips here. He’s also fourth in my primary model, and anyone inside the top five deserves serious consideration.
Adam Svensson to win (+3500)
Here’s another birdie-getter with a legitimate shot at winning this week. He has a T15 finish in 2019 and is coming off a 6th place finish in his last event. Svensson is another very good ball striker who gains a ton of strokes on approach. Since his missed cut at the Wells Fargo, his putter has been scorching. For him to win this week, he will need another solid performance off the tee and on approach. He’s shown over his last five tournaments that he’s more than capable of gaining strokes in both. His pricing is favorable and something I don’t mind risking a unit on.
Emilano Grillo to win (+6000) 0.5 unit
Of my two long shots, Grillo is undoubtedly my favorite. He missed the cut here last year but finished T3 in 2020. He’s a golfer whose game has seen some improvements, and he had a near win at the John Deere earlier this month. Much like the John Deere, this week will be won by golfers who excel off the tee and gain a bunch of strokes on approach. If he plays how he’s been playing over his last five tournaments (SG: T2G: +4.3, SG: OTT +3.3, SG: APP +0.5), he has as good of a chance to win as anyone.
Beau Hossler to win (+10000) 0.5 unit
My last long shot this week is Hossler. I wanted a price golfer who might be mispriced because of their high volatility. Hossler is precisely that. He’s a golfer who has shown glimpses of great golf, but much of his play is mixed with poor finishes and missed cuts. I like a sprinkle on him because of his quality at events that good ball strikers bested. Most notably, his 3rd place finishes at Pebble Beach. He gained +2 strokes putting and another +4.1 putting. While the sample size of great finishes from Hossler is limited, he showed enough to warrant a small stab at +10000 at a course that isn’t overly difficult.
