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Madison Bumgarner O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Astros
Madison Bumgarner is only 32-years-old, but feels so much older as he enters another season with the Diamondbacks.
MadBum’s first start of 2022 went for 3.0 innings against the Padres and 68 pitches on one home run, two strikeouts and four walks. Since 2020, MadBum has faced the Astros three times and posted two, seven and three strikeouts.
Last season, he averaged 0.84 Ks per inning and I don’t see that nflumber getting any higher this year. Bumgarner has become a contact pitcher that prefers outs through the ground or fly balls before strikeouts.
So far, starting pitchers recorded nine, three, one and two Ks against Houston this season. Shohei Ohtani topped nine Ks, while Jose Suarez, Noah Syndergaard and Reid Detmers combined for six Ks over 13.2 innings of work against the Astros, per statmuse. All of them had something in common.
That commonality was every pitcher threw left-handed, which means this will be the fifth-straight game seeing a LHP.
Houston has 29 total strikeouts in four games, but 15 of them came against starting pitching with nine of their 13 walks as well. I like Bumgarner to hit four strikeouts or less here.
This prop should have been O/U 3.5 strikeouts juiced to the Over, so I will play the Under 4.5 Ks at -135 odds. Our model predicts 4.6 Ks over 6.0 innings, which I don’t think he reaches.
Bumgarner has a 21.9 K% against current Houston hitters with a 19.1 whiff% over 64 plate appearances, per baseball savant.
I risked 2 units to win 1.48 here making this a 1.5u play or 1.48u play to be exact.
I would risk 2 units out to -150 odds then just play 1.5 to win 1u once this line moves.
Pick: Madison Bumgarner Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1.5u -- Risk 2u to win 1.48u)
Jesus Luzardo O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Angels
Jesus Luzardo was a road favorite of ours because, in eight appearances and five starts, Luzardo posted a 1-5 record and 8.46 ERA with a .321 OBA.
He was a mess away from Miami, and in those five road starts, Luzardo only escaped 5.0 innings once and recorded five or fewer strikeouts in four of five games. He also had two or less Ks in three of the five starts, per statmuse.
The Marlins youngster posted an above-average Spring Training resume with 11.2 IP and 10 strikeouts to three walks. He allowed nine hits and two runs in the last two games, so there is potential for a top-heavy Angels lineup in Los Angeles to find success.
Luzardo has pitched 6.0 innings over four appearances in the past three years against the Angels. He faced 21 total batters and struck out five, so he hasn’t seen many of the Angels hitters. He has 14 plate appearances with three walks and two strikeouts against current L.A. batters.
Luzardo also threw his four-seam fastball and sinker 51% of the time last season, so Los Angeles should see plenty of fastballs, which is what you want to avoid versus Ohtani, Mike Trout (expected back today) and Anthony Rendon.
Our model predicts Luzardo to record 3.9 strikeouts in 4.1 innings and that’s where I have him too. I expected a O/U 4.5 K number, so I will take a bite of the Under 5.5 Ks at -155 odds.
I would play to -165 or a half-unit on the Under 4.5 Ks for +100 or better.
Pick: Jesus Luzardo Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Daniel Lynch O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Cardinals
Daniel Lynch will draw his first start of the 2022 season and it will be on the road in St. Louis.
Per baseball savant, last season, Lynch ranked in the 12th percentile for K% and tossed the fastball 52% of the time.
On the road last season, Lynch posted a 4.33 ERA in seven starts (2-3 record) over 35.1 innings.
Lynch averaged 0.88 strikeouts per game away from home with a .290 OBA. He averaged 4.4 Ks per game and had four or fewer in four of seven outings.
In May of last year, Lynch recorded a 15.95 ERA with three starts that lasted a total of 8.0 innings, so another slow start is in the cards (get it?).
During Spring Training, Lynch was smacked around, allowing at least five hits in three appearances. Lynch surrendered at least one homer in each game (four total) along with six total earned runs. He struck out seven over 12.1 innings of work with two walks.
Lynch posted a .313 OBA versus RHB last season compared to .161 against LHB. The Cardinals only have two LHB, Corey Dickerson and Lars Nootbaar on its roster with Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson being switch hitters.
This short be a short outing for Lynch. Let’s fade Lynch Under 3.5 strikeouts (-110) against the Cardinals.
This is -110 and -115 on DK and MGM. The prop opened at +115 on DK before they quickly switched it to -115.
I would play this out to -130 odds for 1 unit.
Pick: Daniel Lynch Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Patrick Corbin O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Braves
Last season, we had to make at least 10-15 of our 40 units on fading LHP against the Atlanta Braves.
If you remember, we had a magic numbers, which were 4.5 and 5.5. Going over the final 23 regular-season games and first two of this season against LHP, only two of them went Over 5.5 Ks, yes two (8%), per statmuse. When the O/U was 4.5, seven of 25 went Over (28%).
Corbin met Atlanta three times last year and recorded five, five and four strikeouts over 4.2, 6.2 and 5.1 innings. He opened this season with four strikeouts and two walks over 4.0 innings against the Mets.
Since 2020, Corbin is 15-0 to the Under 5.5 strikeouts when he pitches 5.0 or fewer innings. He is 11-4 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts in that span (73.3%).
On the road last year, Corbin owned a 5.38 ERA, .258 OBA and 0.81 strikeouts per inning. Believe it or not, his home numbers were worse, so he just is not a quality pitcher.
It will likely be an auto bet if we get an O/U of 4.5, 5.5 or 6.5 for an LHP versus Atlanta this season.
Let’s ride Corbin Under 4.5 Ks (-160). I would pass at 3.5.
Pick: Patrick Corbin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
1u
— Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) April 12, 2022
Jose Quintana vs Cubs
Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150) DK, FD
.344 OBA vs RHB last year and Pirates stacked the lineup with 8 counting switch hitters.
Bad Spring numbers and he will be in front of an half filled PNC Park. #PlayerProps #LetsGoBucs #Cubs https://t.co/kC5VeNQfyp
#MLB Collab @_JohnnyVTV ⚾
— Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) April 12, 2022
1u
Yusei Kikuchi vs Yankees
Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-106)
Kikuchi will face a ton of RHB vs NYY
Had a 4.61 ERA on road last Szn and 6.48 ERA in Spring Training 😳
Full breakdown @NBCSportsBet: https://t.co/fB590Reqjz#RepBX #NextLevel#PlayerProps pic.twitter.com/qNx3L6jWDF
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