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National League Champion
The National League is once again run by the L.A. Dodgers (+225) with the reigning NL Champ, Atlanta Braves (+450) right behind them. A few more teams are less than 10-to-1, including Milwaukee (+700), San Diego (+750) and the New York Mets (+800) trailing.
Below are odds via PointsBet with the Dodgers and Brewers line movement shown.
Los Angeles (+225) and Atlanta (+450)
The Dodgers lost Max Scherzer to the Mets, but added Freddie Freeman to an already league-best lineup. Mookie Betts, Trea and Justin Turner highlight the offense with Walker Buehler, Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw headlining the pitching rotation. The Dodgers should be a 100-win team once again and are my pick to win the World Series.
Atlanta was a surprise to some last year but the talent on that team should be around for awhile. Despite the ever-so-young Charlie Morton pitching as the 1-2 with Max Fried, there is a lot of potential in Ian Anderson and Huascar Ynoa.
With hitters like Ronald Acuña (injured but coming back later), Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson, the Braves should have an all-around top 10 team. However with Acuna out and younger pitching in the back end of the rotation, I think you can get a better price on the Braves later.
Milwaukee (+700) and San Diego (+750)
If I have to pick a team to represent the NL for the World Series outside of the Dodgers, I am rocking with the Brewers. Milwaukee’s pitching rotation is filthy with Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff. Those three aces will carry this far, but so will the hitting behind Christian Yelich and company.
San Diego has health with the Fernando Tatis drama (injury) this offseason and that put a slight hinder to the start of the season. Of course, Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth and Eric Hosmer can step up, but that doesn’t appear to be enough firepower to carry the rest of the lineup.
The rotation is above league average with Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea and Blake Snell as the 1-4, but they have had cold stretches throughout last year they are sure to repeat this season. I believe the Padres are a bit overruled at +750.
New York (+800), San Francisco (+1100) and St. Louis (+1200)
The Mets have reloaded by acquiring Scherzer, Starling Marte and Eduardo Escobar, but I still don’t see the long-term success wit this team as long as Jacob deGrom is hurt, this team is fade material. You will get a much better number on New York later in the season.
San Francisco is one of the most interesting teams entering this year. The Giants won an MLB-best 107 games last season and are sure for regression with a win total set at 84.5. Logan Webb will take over as the ace amid Kevin Gausman‘s departure to Toronto.
The Cardinals are another interesting team but mainly because its pitching staff has a high ceiling but low floor, similar to the Padres. Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright, Steven Matz, Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson will be the starting rotation with Giovanny Gallegos as the closer.
The offense will have a ton of home run potential with Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill and plenty more. I don’t mind betting the Cardinals in a two-team NL Central race, but more for a NL Central long shot ticket, not NL Champion.
NL Pick: Dodgers (+225)
My NL Champion will be the chalky pick -- the L.A. Dodgers.
It’s the boring pick but when will we get better than 2-to-1 value on Los Angeles all season? Even when the Giants and Dodgers were going back-and-forth for best record, Los Angeles remained the favorite to win it all. I see a similar situation this year except the NL West took a step back outside of the Dodgers.
The Dodgers are simply too much and this could be the best offense in all of baseball.
Pick: Dodgers (1u)
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