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My UFC betting package this week includes five plays. This is the UFC’s return to Abu Dhabi and there is heavy Russian representation on this card. We currently have ten Russians scheduled to fight during these fifteen fights. I expect the judges to put a premium on scoring control in the grappling and wrestling positions. Follow me on Twitter to get any plays I may tweet out on Saturday, fight news, and my takes on the card. You can find me on Twitter @CombatSportsNBC and please also follow Ike Feldman @IkeFeldman, my Combat Sports partner for NBC Sports Edge Betting @NBCSportsEdge.
Prelim Prop: Tagir Ulanbekov to win Round 3 or Decision (-115)
This is the curtain jerker and this could very well set up the theme for this card, grappling control. Tagir Ulanbekov has a combat sambo background. His greatest advantage is his grappling and wrestling. This fight will take place on the feet at times with Tamir leaning on his grappling background late to secure those rounds on the judge’s scorecards. Tagir averages 5 takedowns per 15 minutes. Those takedowns should lead to control and a decision win.
Prelim Prop: Lerone Murphy to win Round 3 or Decision (+126)
Mr. Poland, Makwan Amirkhani is a low-volume striker who will try to grapple early. Makwan likes to start fights pushing the pace which will put Lerone Murphy on the defensive in round 1. Makwan is a notorious gasser who will allow Lerone Murphy to take control of this fight once Makwan’s pace slows down. Murphy is live for a late finish if Makwan’s movement stops in round 3. Murphy has consistent, powerful striking which will win him the striking exchanges on the feet. Murphy will secure this win with more striking damage.
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Parlay These Props: (Parlay pays +128) 1st Leg Albert Duraev by Sub or Points
2nd Leg Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO or Points
Albert Duraev’s strength lies with his wrestling. His opponent, Roman Kopylov’s strength is his kickboxing. Kopylov lost his last fight to Karl Roberson via a 3rd round submission, rear-naked choke. That fight was contested on the feet until round 3 when Kopylov was guilty of an eye poke on Roberson. Once the referee restarted the fight, Roberson took Kopylov down and quickly submitted him. Karl Roberson is known as a kickboxer himself so this quick submission was surprising. Duraev’s team will study that tape and take the easy path to victory with an early takedown, keep top control, and work position over submission until that submission presents itself.
Alexander Volkov has a height and reach advantage in most of his fights. Volkov will sport a 4-inch height advantage and 2-inch reach advantage. Volkov has excellent boxing and wants to fight behind his long jab. He can cruise to a win in this fight as long as he can stay on his feet. Marcin Tybura needs to grapple and pursue takedowns to try for an upset victory here. Volkov should jab his head off for three rounds.
Main Card Prop: Khamzat Chimaev to win in Round 3 or Decision (+185)
This fight has a wide range of outcomes and some narrative behind the Hype Train Khamzat Chimaev. This plus money prop is the most likely outcome based on Jingliang Li’s previous performances. Jingliang Li is a striker who can be taken down by quality wrestlers. Li was outwrestled by Neil Magny and Jake Matthews in his last six fights. Chimaev is an outstanding wrestler and can exploit his grappling advantages vs Li. Li is very tough and I expect him to last deep into this fight. Chimaev has back-to-back 1st round highlight finishes so the recent narrative favors him finishing this fight early but that plays into Li’s strengths. Chimaev would be smart to get Li on his back and secure rounds.
Khamzat Chimaev makes his highly-anticipated return against Li Jingliang at #UFC267 pic.twitter.com/EH59BhLBd2
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) October 28, 2021
Main Event Prop: Jan Blachowicz KO/TKO (+118)
This championship fight seems binary to me, Jan Blachowicz by KO/TKO or Glover Teixeira by submission. I favor Jan to keep this fight standing and shrug off the attempted takedowns by Glover. Glover has been rocked in his previous fights, most recently by Thiago Santos who had him wobbled twice in round 1. Santos got too close to Glover looking for the finish and ended up on the bottom of a grappling exchange. Jan has to be patient with his striking. Jan will hurt Glover with his Polish Power punches and should knock him out within 3 rounds.
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