Editor’s Note: Don’t just bet your favorite sports. LIVE YOUR BET LIFE! Get started today at PointsBet with two risk-free bets up to $2,000. Bet now!
A packed Thursday in the NHL is co-headlined by a pair of divisional battles.
First, in New York, the Rangers get set to host their Metropolitan Division rivals, the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Later in the evening, the Los Angeles Kings will host the Edmonton Oilers in a Pacific Division showdown, with each team desperately trying to hang on to a playoff position.
These may be the featured events, but I have my eye on a couple of other games in terms of betting opportunity.
Below you will find overlays from two of tonight’s games available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
NASHVILLE PREDATORS at OTTAWA SENATORS
The Predators have played mediocre hockey on the road this season and the Ottawa Senators are riding a three-game winning streak.
Despite these facts, I like the Preds to cover the -1.5-puck line in Ontario this evening.
Nashville is desperately clinging to one of the final wild card spots in the NHL’s Western Conference, and they can ill afford a loss to a Senators team that has the sixth-fewest points in the league.
Led by Norris Trophy (and perhaps Hart Trophy) candidate Roman Josi, the Predators rank as an above-average unit as a whole despite not being outstanding in any one statistical category.
Their strongest area is when they are on the man advantage, converting exactly 25% of their chances this season (sixth best in the league).
An element of Ottawa’s current winning streak that must be taken into consideration is the opponents they have faced.
All three of their victories have come against the Detroit Red Wings and Montreal Canadiens, two of the worst teams in the National Hockey League (I have them rated 30th and 32nd).
Prior to this three-game winning streak, Ottawa was handled with ease by this very Predators team in Nashville, losing 4-1 on March 29.
The Senators could only muster one goal on thirty-seven shots, with the lone tally coming on one of their six power play opportunities.
In the grand scheme of things, events unfolded in a favorable way for Ottawa, and they still could not keep up with the Predators.
Given Nashville’s current standing, I expect them to come out and take care of business on the road tonight.
Based on my numbers, the Preds defeat the Sens by at least two goals in Ottawa 41.1% of the time (translates to odds of +143), indicating that Nashville’s current puck line price of +145 (implied probability of 40.8%) is spot on.
Editor’s Note: Now, all our premium tools for Fantasy, DFS and Betting are included in one subscription at one low price. Customers can subscribe to NBC Sports EDGE+ monthly ($9.99) or save 20% on an annual subscription ($95.88). And don’t forget to use promo code SAVE10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS at DALLAS STARS
Tuesday’s loss to the Florida Panthers was peak Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Leafs squandered a four-goal lead to the Eastern Conference leaders, only to tie the game before eventually losing in overtime by a final score of 7-6.
Toronto undoubtedly has issues – specifically in their back-half – however their offensive prowess is undeniable.
The Maple Leafs have now scored at least six goals in each of their last five games, a number that seems almost unfathomable.
When you have players like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on your roster, though, anything is possible.
Assuming Toronto gets a decent start from either Jack Campbell or Erik Kallgren, Thursday night’s game in Dallas looks as though it could be an opportunity for the Leafs to put Tuesday’s collapse behind them and regain their momentum as we inch closer to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
My numbers suggest the Leafs defeat the Stars by at least two goals in Dallas 39.2% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of +155.
This means Toronto’s puck line odds of +160 (implied probability of 38.5%) represent an overlay, albeit a small one.
THE PLAYS
Nashville Predators at Ottawa Senators – Predators -1.5 (+145)
Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars – Maple Leafs -1.5 (+160)
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. NJ, IA, IN, IL, CO, MI, VA, WV only. 21+. T&C apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.