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The final game before the NHL’s holiday / COVID break is a battle of two heavyweights: the Tampa Bay Lightning and Vegas Golden Knights.
Below you will find an overlay from tonight’s game available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING at VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS (Golden Knights -1.5, -121 ML, OU 5.5)
Each of these powerhouses got off to sluggish starts this year, but recently they have begun to look increasingly like the Stanley Cup contenders everyone expected them to be.
The slow starts for these two sides is also easily explained.
Tampa was simply trying to overcome a back-to-back Stanley Cup Champion hangover, and the Golden Knights were decimated by injuries in the first couple of months of the season.
Now, with each team inching closer to their full complement of players, it is no surprise to see them near the top of the Eastern and Western Conferences, respectively.
Although neither team is exceptional in any one category (both slightly above-average in 5-on-5 play, middle of the road on the power play, and bottom-half on the penalty kill), the sum of all their parts puts them in the conversation of best in the league.
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Tampa will have the goaltending edge over any team in the National Hockey League with Andrei Vasilevskiy between the pipes, and captain Steven Stamkos has quietly had a monster season to this point.
Stamkos is currently sixth in the NHL in total points, with thirteen goals and twenty-one assists.
His numbers are a reminder that, when healthy, Stamkos remains one of the best all-around talents the National Hockey League has to offer.
Despite the price continuing to dwindle (Tampa’s moneyline opened at +115), the play tonight is on the Lightning at +100 (implied probability of 50%).
Based on my projections, Tampa defeats Vegas 54.27% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of -119.
THE PLAYS
Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights – Lightning ML (+100)
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