A loaded Thursday in the National Hockey League features battles between some of the league’s best teams through the first two weeks of the season, including Toronto v. Dallas, Edmonton v. Carolina, Calgary v. Buffalo, and Vegas v. Winnipeg.
Below you will find my projections for each of the twelve games as well as any wagers worth considering, with odds powered by PointsBet.
The percentages in parentheses next to the odds reflect the implied probability of the price listed.
Here is the results tally for this season:
14-10-0 (58.3%), +5.55 units
PROJECTIONS
LOS ANGELES KINGS at PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
|
| ML ODDS | ML PROJ. | PUCK LINE ODDS | PUCK LINE PROJ. | TOTAL ODDS | TOTAL PROJ. | 3-WAY ML ODDS | 3-WAY ML PROJ. |
| LAK | +160 | +175 (36.3%) | +1.5 (-155) | -166 (62.4%) | O6.5 (-121) | +206 (32.7%) | +215 | +258 (27.9%) |
| PIT | -196 | -175 (63.7%) | -1.5 (+130) | +166 (37.6%) | U6.5 (+100) | -206 (67.3%) | -125 | -124 (55.3%) |
| TIE |
|
|
|
|
|
| +360 | +495 (16.8%) |
NASHVILLE PREDATORS at COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS
|
| ML ODDS | ML PROJ. | PUCK LINE ODDS | PUCK LINE PROJ. | TOTAL ODDS | TOTAL PROJ. | 3-WAY ML ODDS | 3-WAY ML PROJ. |
| NSH | -155 | -106 (51.5%) | -1.5 (+180) | +243 (29.2%) | O6.5 (-125) | -215 (68.3%) | -105 | +130 (43.4%) |
| CBJ | +130 | +106 (48.5%) | +1.5 (-221) | -243 (70.8%) | U6.5 (+105) | +215 (31.7%) | +175 | +148 (40.3%) |
| TIE |
|
|
|
|
|
| +350 | +515 (16.2%) |
SAN JOSE SHARKS at NEW YORK RANGERS
|
| ML ODDS | ML PROJ. | PUCK LINE ODDS | PUCK LINE PROJ. | TOTAL ODDS | TOTAL PROJ. | 3-WAY ML ODDS | 3-WAY ML PROJ. |
| SJS | +235 | +177 (36.2%) | +1.5 (-105) | -169 (62.8%) | O6.5 (+100) | +265 (27.4%) | +295 | -122 (55%) |
| NYR | -295 | -177 (63.8%) | -1.5 (-115) | +169 (37.2%) | U6.5 (-121) | -265 (72.6%) | -171 | +227 (30.6%) |
| TIE |
|
|
|
|
|
| +380 | +595 (14.4%) |
WASHINGTON CAPITALS at OTTAWA SENATORS
|
| ML ODDS | ML PROJ. | PUCK LINE ODDS | PUCK LINE PROJ. | TOTAL ODDS | TOTAL PROJ. | 3-WAY ML ODDS | 3-WAY ML PROJ. |
| WSH | +100 | -117 (53.8%) | +1.5 (-250) | -323 (76.4%) | O6.5 (-131) | +140 (41.6%) | +140 | +118 (45.9%) |
| OTT | -121 | +117 (46.2%) | -1.5 (+200) | +323 (23.6%) | U6.5 (+110) | -143 (58.8%) | +120 | +162 (38.2%) |
| TIE |
|
|
|
|
|
| +350 | +530 (15.9%) |
ANAHEIM DUCKS at BOSTON BRUINS
|
| ML ODDS | ML PROJ. | PUCK LINE ODDS | PUCK LINE PROJ. | TOTAL ODDS | TOTAL PROJ. | 3-WAY ML ODDS | 3-WAY ML PROJ. |
| ANA | +170 | +288 (25.8%) | +1.5 (-136) | +102 (49.6%) | O6.5 (-121) | +124 (44.7%) | +225 | +415 (19.4%) |
| BOS | -206 | -288 (74.2%) | -1.5 (+115) | -102 (50.4%) | U6.5 (+100) | -124 (55.3%) | -131 | -211 (67.8%) |
| TIE |
|
|
|
|
|
| +360 | +686 (12.7%) |
ARIZONA COYOTES at MONTREAL CANADIENS
|
| ML ODDS | ML PROJ. | PUCK LINE ODDS | PUCK LINE PROJ. | TOTAL ODDS | TOTAL PROJ. | 3-WAY ML ODDS | 3-WAY ML PROJ. |
| ARI | +140 | +165 (37.7%) | +1.5 (-165) | -165 (62.2%) | O6.5 (-115) | -122 (54.9%) | +190 | +234 (30%) |
| MTL | -165 | -165 (62.3%) | -1.5 (+140) | +165 (37.8%) | U6.5 (-105) | +122 (45.1%) | -110 | -120 (54.6%) |
| TIE |
|
|
|
|
|
| +350 | +548 (15.4%) |
DALLAS STARS at TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
|
| ML ODDS | ML PROJ. | PUCK LINE ODDS | PUCK LINE PROJ. | TOTAL ODDS | TOTAL PROJ. | 3-WAY ML ODDS | 3-WAY ML PROJ. |
| DAL | +145 | +194 (34%) | +1.5 (-176) | -143 (58.8%) | O6.5 (-115) | -165 (62.2%) | +195 | +283 (26.1%) |
| TOR | -176 | -194 (66%) | -1.5 (+145) | +143 (41.2%) | U6.5 (-105) | +165 (37.8%) | -115 | -139 (58.1%) |
| TIE |
|
|
|
|
|
| +350 | +534 (15.8%) |
NEW JERSEY DEVILS at NEW YORK ISLANDERS
|
| ML ODDS | ML PROJ. | PUCK LINE ODDS | PUCK LINE PROJ. | TOTAL ODDS | TOTAL PROJ. | 3-WAY ML ODDS | 3-WAY ML PROJ. |
| NJD | +120 | +119 (45.7%) | +1.5 (-221) | -221 (68.9%) | O6.5 (+105) | +140 (41.6%) | +165 | +168 (37.4%) |
| NYI | -140 | -119 (54.3%) | -1.5 (+180) | +221 (31.1%) | U6.5 (-125) | -140 (58.4%) | +105 | +117 (46%) |
| TIE |
|
|
|
|
|
| +340 | +501 (16.6%) |
VANCOUVER CANUCKS at MINNESOTA WILD
|
| ML ODDS | ML PROJ. | PUCK LINE ODDS | PUCK LINE PROJ. | TOTAL ODDS | TOTAL PROJ. | 3-WAY ML ODDS | 3-WAY ML PROJ. |
| VAN | +150 | +141 (41.4%) | +1.5 (-160) | -179 (64.1%) | O6.5 (-131) | -144 (59.1%) | +200 | +193 (34.2%) |
| MIN | -180 | -141 (58.5%) | -1.5 (+135) | +179 (35.9%) | U6.5 (+110) | +144 (40.9%) | -121 | -105 (51.3%) |
| TIE |
|
|
|
|
|
| +360 | +588 (14.5%) |
CAROLINA HURRICANES at EDMONTON OILERS
|
| ML ODDS | ML PROJ. | PUCK LINE ODDS | PUCK LINE PROJ. | TOTAL ODDS | TOTAL PROJ. | 3-WAY ML ODDS | 3-WAY ML PROJ. |
| CAR | -110 | -103 (50.7%) | +1.5 (-250) | -293 (74.5%) | O6.5 (-125) | +131 (43.3%) | +130 | +137 (42.2%) |
| EDM | -110 | +103 (49.3%) | -1.5 (+200) | +293 (25.5%) | U6.5 (+105) | -131 (56.7%) | +130 | +145 (40.8%) |
| TIE |
|
|
|
|
|
| +340 | +487 (17%) |
BUFFALO SABRES at CALGARY FLAMES
|
| ML ODDS | ML PROJ. | PUCK LINE ODDS | PUCK LINE PROJ. | TOTAL ODDS | TOTAL PROJ. | 3-WAY ML ODDS | 3-WAY ML PROJ. |
| BUF | +235 | +162 (38.2%) | +1.5 (-110) | -181 (64.4%) | O6.5 (-121) | +268 (27.2%) | +295 | +239 (29.5%) |
| CGY | -295 | -162 (61.8%) | -1.5 (-110) | +181 (35.6%) | U6.5 (+100) | -268 (72.8%) | -176 | -113 (53.1%) |
| TIE |
|
|
|
|
|
| +390 | +474 (17.4%) |
WINNIPEG JETS at VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS
|
| ML ODDS | ML PROJ. | PUCK LINE ODDS | PUCK LINE PROJ. | TOTAL ODDS | TOTAL PROJ. | 3-WAY ML ODDS | 3-WAY ML PROJ. |
| WPG | +180 | +101 (49.8%) | +1.5 (-145) | -264 (72.5%) | O6.5 (-131) | +125 (44.5%) | +235 | +139 (41.8%) |
| VEG | -221 | -101 (50.2%) | -1.5 (+125) | +264 (27.5%) | U6.5 (+110) | -125 (55.5%) | -140 | +137 (42.2%) |
| TIE |
|
|
|
|
|
| +370 | +527 (15.9%) |
BETS
- I acknowledge that, based on my numbers, I should be betting UNDER 6.5 total goals in the Kings / Pens game. The way these two teams have played this season makes it hard for me to fully buy in at this point, though. The Kings haven’t been able to stop anyone, and Pittsburgh has had their goaltenders play above their heads; it’s a pass for me.
- San Jose’s 0-5 start is the worst in franchise history, and whether they can beat the Rangers tonight at Madison Square Garden remains to be seen. Goaltending for the Sharks hasn’t been terrible, but their offensive production has been, averaging a league-worst 1.6 goals per game. Now they’ll likely deal with Igor Shesterkin, who, to be fair, hasn’t been great to begin this season (.905 save percentage against eighty-four shots in three appearances). Given the circumstances, though, this feels like the perfect storm: a struggling offense against one of the best netminders in the world. Under 6.5 total goals is the play in this spot, despite the price being on the juicier side.
- Anton Forsberg was very solid in each of his first two starts before allowing five goals on thirty-four shots against the Bruins on Tuesday night, but I don’t want to draw any real conclusions from that game. A repeat of his efforts against either Buffalo or Toronto not only give the Sens a chance tonight against the Caps, but it also puts this game squarely in UNDER territory. At +110, under 6.5 goals total is the bet.
- Both Buffalo and Calgary rank in the top-half of the league in expected goals against this year (7.3; 5.3), with the Flames ranking inside the top five. Sabres netminder Eric Comrie was torched in the season opener by the Florida Panthers but rebounded emphatically against the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday, stopping forty-six of forty-eight shots against en route to a 3-2 victory. Jacob Markstrom hasn’t been lights-out to begin the season, owning a save percentage of .891 against forty-six attempts. Considering his competition in Colorado and Vegas, however, that number isn’t as bad as it seems at face value. Buffalo has promising young talent and Calgary remains one of the more potent offenses in the league, but if Markstrom can put his best foot forward and Comrie maintains the form we saw earlier this week, UNDER 6.5 goals is in play.
- Vegas and Winnipeg are very evenly matched based on what we’ve seen from each team this season, making the prices available tonight extremely enticing. Yes, the Jets will be playing the second half of back-to-backs following a 4-3 overtime victory over the Colorado Avalanche last night. Yes, the Jets will be without Connor Hellebuyck, whose best is still as good as anyone’s in the National Hockey League. Despite these factors, there’s still reason to believe Winnipeg can be competitive in Vegas this evening. David Rittich likely gets the call between the pipes for the first time in a Jets uniform, and while he struggled in the backup role for the Predators last season, he’s an experienced veteran that can keep his team in a game. On the other side of the ice, Logan Thompson has been outstanding for the Golden Knights to this point (.938 save percentage against ninety-seven shots this season), but it feels like you’d be buying high on the Golden Knights in tonight’s game at odds of -221 on the moneyline. These two teams are: 15th and 20th in Corsi for percentage, 17th and 18th on the power play, and 20th and 24th on the penalty kill this season. Vegas may win, but they shouldn’t be such prohibitive favorites (in my opinion). Winnipeg on the moneyline is the play.
THE PLAYS:
- SAN JOSE SHARKS at NEW YORK RANGERS – UNDER 6.5 GOALS (-121)
- WASHINGTON CAPITALS at OTTAWA SENATORS – UNDER 6.5 GOALS (+110)
- BUFFALO SABRES at CALGARY FLAMES – UNDER 6.5 GOALS (+100)
- WINNIPEG JETS at VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – JETS ML (+180)