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There may only be two fixtures on tap Sunday in the English Premier League, but one of them is particularly intriguing from a gambling standpoint.
Below you will find an overlay to consider at PointsBet from Sunday’s match between Aston Villa and West Ham.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
ASTON VILLA v. WEST HAM – MATCH RESULT – WEST HAM WIN (currently +140 at PointsBet)
Despite these two sides being close on the odds spectrum, there’s little doubt that West Ham is the better team entering Sunday’s match at Villa Park in Birmingham.
Led by Michail Antonio’s six goals and three assists this season, West Ham has displayed terrific form all year, with their only losses coming at home against Manchester United and Brentford.
Each of those matches could have easily seen the Irons earn points if not for an 89th minute goal from Jesse Lingard in the Man United contest and a 94th minute goal from Brentford’s Yoane Wissa.
The strong run of success West Ham bring into this match is in stark contrast to the form Aston Villa enters with.
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Losers of three consecutive Premier League games, Villa have struggled to prevent quality goal-scoring chances against their opposition, currently sitting squarely in the bottom-half in goals allowed (fifteen goals against entering Sunday).
The Lions have earned some solid victories this year against the likes of Manchester United and Everton, however their recent form suggests they are particularly vulnerable in the backfield.
With a lethal striker like Antonio and an equally dangerous attacking midfielder like Saïd Benrahma on the pitch, there is every reason to believe West Ham will earn all three points on offer this weekend.
Based on my projections, West Ham defeats Aston Villa in Birmingham 54.7% of the time (odds of -121).
Currently at PointsBet, West Ham is listed at odds of +140 (implied probability of 41.7%), representing a significant overlay.
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