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The Premier League season has returned, and so has your chance to cash in big.
The free-to-play Premier League Pick ‘Em contest made its return in the NBC Sports Predictor app along with the new EPL season and continues this week with a new slate of five games.
Each matchday, participants are given five Premier League contests in which they attempt to predict the final score of each fixture. If a player nails all five scores correctly, they can walk away with a cold $50,000 jackpot!
Even if no entry correctly picks the five scores perfectly, there’s still a weekly guarantee of $1,000 in prizes for players with the top overall scores.
Here’s a look at the five matchups selected for this week’s contest, as well as our prediction of the eventual outcome.
Matchup #1 - West Ham vs. Southampton
Analysis: The higher scoring this game gets, the more it will (likely) benefit the Hammers. In matches played to over 2.5 goals this season, West Ham are 6-1-3 against an 0-4-5 record for visiting Southampton. Given West Ham’s recent success at home, this feels like the perfect bounce-back spot for the Hammers after losing their last match out at Arsenal. That said, David Moyes is facing an injury crisis at the back, which should lead to some chances for Southampton’s attack. However, a full complement of attackers for the hosts should see them receive plenty of scoring chances and continue their positive home record against the Saints (wins in four straight).
Prediction: West Ham 3, Southampton 2
Matchup #2 - Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace
Analysis: Since Antonio Conte took over, Spurs are unbeaten and have won five straight matches on expected goals. Plus, their offense has played brilliantly, registering at least 1.7 expected goals in four straight Premier League fixtures. Given Palace currently sit 16th in total road xG, I believe they’ll fail to effectively keep up with Tottenham’s attack. Additionally, the Eagles have allowed at least one expected goal in all eight road fixtures to date, so there’s a good chance they’ll have to play from behind. Go for a Tottenham victory, but for Palace to get on the board and make it competitive.
Prediction: Tottenham 2, Crystal Palace 1
Match #3 - Aston Villa vs. Chelsea
Analysis: When these sides met at Stamford Bridge in September, Villa were the far superior side. Despite ultimately losing 3-0, Villa won the xG battle 1.5-1.1 and the shot-creating actions battle 21-17. Now they get a second shot against the Blues, who will be without both Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner for their visit to Villa Park. Because of those absences, I’m expecting a low-scoring contest, but I also expect each team to score. Given how effectively Villa’s defense has played since Steven Gerrard took over - they’ve allowed only one expected goal in two of six - I rate them highly to get a point against a Chelsea side that is due for some negative road regression.
Prediction: Aston Villa 1, Chelsea 1
Match #4 - Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Brentford
Analysis: On paper, Brighton are the better side. However, the key to this fixture is whether they’ll start finishing at a higher rate. Since their winless run began on Matchday Six, the Seagulls have scored seven goals…..on 13 expected. With a fully healthy Neal Maupay and Leandro Trossard, Brighton should be able to get on the board, but can they get to two goals to create margin for an injury-ravaged defense? I doubt it, seeing as they’ve only reached that number once in their 11-match winless streak. Go for each side to earn a point with Brentford’s offense playing better as of late.
Prediction: Brighton 1, Brentford 1
Match #5 - Newcastle United vs. Manchester United
Analysis: Historically, this fixture has produced goals - over 3.5 has cashed in four straight - and I expect nothing less on Monday. At home this season, Newcastle have allowed all four top-half sides they’ve faced (Man City, West Ham, Tottenham and Chelsea) to score at least three times. Expect that to continue against a United side that boat-raced the Magpies 4-1 in the reverse meeting at Old Trafford and has now won four straight against Newcastle by a 15-4 aggregate margin. I definitely expect Newcastle will get on the board as they’ve only been held twice at home this season, but go for a straight-forward United victory here.
Prediction: Manchester United 3, Newcastle United 1
