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The UEFA Champions League semifinal second legs are underway, and boy, was I wrong about how the game would play for Liverpool in their away leg against Villarreal. Villarreal smacked them in the mouth early in the match. They went into the locker with a 2-0 lead on Liverpool and tied 2-2 on aggregate.
Jurgen Klopp proved to be the second-half mastermind that he is and made the most pivotal second-half sub. The insertion of what the commentators called “The Little Electric Colombian,” Luis Díaz, was absolutely what Liverpool needed. They scored the next three goals, cementing themselves into the Champions League final and cashing our Liverpool team total over 1.5 goals ticket. The next semifinal match we are treated to is the contest between Real Madrid and Manchester City. I found two bets on PointsBet Sportsbook that I am playing for 0.5 units each.
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Real Madrid vs Manchester City (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET)
Three-way Moneyline:
If you watched the first match between the two, you probably left thinking Real were lucky to survive only being down one goal. City squandered many opportunities, opportunities that could’ve seen them up two or three goals. However, Real were able to stay in the game and score twice and now are only down one on aggregate as they welcome City to the Bernabeu.
If I were to be asked to predict a correct score, I’d likely be stuck between too many likely score lines. Will Real score? Probably. Will City score? Definitely. City have a stout defense, but Real are dangerous at home. They have failed to score just four times at home this season and have an xG of 2.43. On the other hand, their defense is not good against a City side who are second in their league in scoring, which is arguably the strongest league in the world.
City will use Liverpool’s game with Villarreal as a lesson to not come out complacent. It was a lesson to any dominant team that if you want to make it to a UCL final, you have to bring it for both the home and away legs.
City average over two goals per road game with an xG that correlates with their success. The biggest issue for Real is their backline. They have a few injuries, but they aren’t the caliber of defense to keep City out even fully fit.
Since I am keeping my first bet small, Manchester City Team Total over 1.5 goals (-135), it gives me the flexibility to also back Manchester City’s moneyline (+105). With my expectation of City taking the game to Real, I like the price I am getting for City’s moneyline.
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