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The Premier League resumes this week for Matchday 22. It is important to note that many teams will be without some of their key players due to the Africa Cup of Nations tournament (AFCON).
The Premier League season is long, and teams go through ebbs and flows along the way. While many variables influence the week-to-week performance, a common debate in the field is the significance of fixture vs. form. Should one place more value on a team’s recent run of results or their performance against the top teams in the league? I believe that they work hand-in-hand and that a run of favorable fixtures creates good form.
Below, I have created a visualization that illustrates each team’s past six results as well as their fixture difficulty over that time:
The fixture strength is determined by an average of the following numbers: the top-three teams in the table have a fixture difficulty ranking of five, teams ranked between fourth to seventh in the table have a ranking of four, teams between eighth and 13th have a ranking of three, and teams between 13th to 20th have a ranking of two.
With that said, let’s jump into my favorite Premier League prop bets of the weekend. All odds are reflective at the time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Brighton/Crystal Palace Both Teams to Score “Yes” (-110 DraftKings)
The weekend kicks off with the M23 Derby, as Brighton plays hosts to Crystal Palace. Both sides have started the new year with a more aggressive approach, scoring two or more goals in each of their last two fixtures. However, their new offensive tactics have not led to any defensive improvements, so expect this match to have many scoring opportunities for both sides.
Since Christmas, Crystal Palace has an expected goals against (xGA) tally in the EPL of 6.7. Brighton has played better defense than the Eagles but has allowed 3.7 xGA during that period and has conceded a goal in five of their last six matches.
Last time in Brighton.#CPFC pic.twitter.com/yjGyC9lGaM
— Crystal Palace F.C. (@CPFC) January 12, 2022
Also, both sides will not be at full strength due to players representing their home nation at AFCON or COVID-19 related procedures. Crystal Palace will be missing far more players than the home side. The Eagles will be without three of their typical starters, Jordan Ayew, Chiekhou Kouyaté and Wilfried Zaha. While the loss of those three will impact Palace’s attack in the final third, their top scorer, Conor Gallagher, will be returning to the lineup after battling a sickness. Gallagher leads the Eagles in goals, assists and shot-creating actions, and he will be hungry to fill the void of the others in the attack.
Both teams to score has been “yes” in 56% of Brighton’s games this season and 50% of Crystal Palace’s. Moreover, both teams to score has hit in seven of the last 10 M23 Derbies and four of the previous five.
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Best Bet #2 - Jarrod Bowen Over 1 Shot On Target (+175 Caesars)
Jarrod Bowen is arguably playing the best soccer in the Premier League right now, and we are going to ride his form and try to cash on a plus-money play. Bowen has seven goal-contributions across his last six matches (four goals and three assists) and has had nine shots on target during that span. Moreover, he has 91 open play sequences that end in a shot (fourth-most in the EPL) via theanalyst.com.
While form like Bowen’s can often fade in a few weeks, the 25-year-old has plenty of motivation to remain aggressive on offense. Bowen has yet to make an international cap and hopes to earn a spot in Gareth Southgate‘s side for England’s next match in April. Even David Moyes is hoping to see his winger get selected for England: “We’ll keep pushing Jarrod, keep trying to get him scoring and improve his game, and hopefully get him an England cap,” Moyes shared to the press via yahoosports.com.
Jarrod Bowen ranks first or joint-first among West Ham players this season for:
— Statman Dave (@StatmanDave) January 12, 2022
• shot-creating actions [76]
• shots on target [25]
• goal-creating actions [17]
• assists [8]
A fiend in the final third. 🤩🙌 pic.twitter.com/7lGwnpfQon
West Ham will be home against Leeds United on Sunday, which is a matchup that favors Bowen’s shot total. Leeds allows the highest shots on target/per 90 minutes ratio in the league at 5.21. Moreover, West Ham played the Peacocks just last week in the FA Cup, and Bowen recorded four shots, three of which were on target.
If you believe Bowen will convert one of his shots on target into a goal, you can wager on him as an anytime goalscorer at +250.
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