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If you have been betting underdogs the last few days for the BNP Paribas Open, congratulations. Some of the bigger names in the sport like Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev did not make it to the semifinal round on the men’s singles side. Still, here’s where you can find betting value.
Grigor Dimitrov (-110) vs Cameron Norrie (-110)
Not to take anything away from the final four, but motivation is tougher to analyze in three-set matches among the leaders in the Race to Turin. The ATP Finals is a month away and the usual disparity between the top tier and everyone else is enough for the top seeds to be comfortable.
This trend does not affect the two in this first match. Both rank outside the top 25 in hard court Elo ratings per tennisabstract.com. The odds are close because the ratings are separated by less than 15 points and two spots in the pecking order. Where Dimitrov does have an advantage is in the return game. The stat Return Rating combines first-serve return points won rate, second-serve return points won rate, breakpoints converted rate and return games won rate. Over the last year on this surface, Dimitrov ranks fifth, Norrie is 14th. Enough metrics point to a close match, so Dimitrov may be the better side, but I want anything suggesting this semifinal will go the distance.
EDGE: Over 22.5 games -110
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Taylor Fritz (-182) vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (+147)
Based upon sets in this tournament alone, Fritz should be a significant favorite. His quarterfinal against Alexander Zverev was the first time he needed a third set to dispatch an opponent. Basilashvili has had to grind much more. This surface is also not the Georgian’s best; his Elo rating is higher on clay than on hard courts.
The American, though, may be looking to surge into the international spotlight thanks to domestic tournaments like these. This year, his aces to double faults ratio is approximately 3:1; which is outstanding. He thrives serving to the T section: 79.5% points won on the deuce court and 72.9% points won on the ad court. Finally, head to head, Fritz leads the series against Basilashvili, 2-1, including the most recent outing in Dubai this year.
EDGE: Fritz -182
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