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We’ve arrived at the third Grand Slam of the year, and one that is the favorite of tennis fans everywhere. Wimbledon will see some of the world’s best come together on a rarely-played surface, grass, where excitement is easy to find.
I’ve got a couple matches I’m seeing some major value in, and without further ado I’ll get right to them.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (+430) vs. Hubert Hurkacz (-667)
These two young men have played a total of four times, and Davidovich Fokina has managed to win a set in every one of those meetings. He’s beaten the World No. 10 twice, both times winning on a hardcourt — a surface Davidovich Fokina is not known for dominating.
The Spaniard has improved his serve this season and has added some pop to his groundstrokes, making him a tough out everywhere. He seemed to unlock a higher level of tennis in Monte Carlo, where he was able to reach his first Masters 1000 final, and while this isn’t the dirt it’s hard to count Davidovich Fokina out here.
The 23-year-old won the Boys’ Singles title here in 2017 without dropping a single set, and while that success has not yet translated to the main draw, Davidovich Fokina was matched up with a very dangerous opponent a year ago in Denis Kudla.
Davidovich Fokina had a big win on grass last week against Alex De Minaur and appears to be playing some of the best tennis of his career. I like him to nick a set against a popular darkhorse.
Edge: Davidovich Fokina +2.5 Sets (+100)
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Jan-Lennard Struff (+290) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (-400)
Yes, Struff has won just twice all year — twice! That doesn’t necessarily preclude him from doing some damage here on the grass at Wimbledon, though, somewhere where the German has reached the third round in two of his last three appearances.
With a blistering serve and forehand in his pocket, Struff has the tools to be a very dangerous player on grass. This was on full display in Stuttgart, where he picked up his second win of the year against Marcos Giron before playing two tight matches against good competition but ultimately losing. Now, he’ll try his hand at Alcaraz, a budding star who’s already reached the top 10.
For all Alcaraz has accomplished, though, he’s yet to do anything on grass. He beat a player outside the top 200 last year at Wimbledon in five sets before getting hit off the court by Daniil Medvedev, and while it’s easy to make an excuse given he wasn’t the same player a season ago, this year hasn’t done Alcaraz any favors.
The Spaniard showed up to a couple of exhibitions against Casper Ruud and Frances Tiafoe — two players he should beat — and failed to win a set. In doing so, his arm was heavily wrapped and reports on the scene were that he was not swinging at 100%. This could mean nothing, but it could also mean something. I don’t want to lay 5.5 games here with a guy who may be playing with a minor injury and lacks grass-court experience. In fact, I want to fade him.
Edge: Struff +5.5 Games
