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The second-to-last day of the WNBA regular season features four games, with six projected playoff teams in action. The matchup I’ll be watching closest is a potential playoff preview as the Chicago Sky take on the Las Vegas Aces at 8:00 pm ET. Las Vegas is favored by 4.5 points on the road with a game total of 169. My WNBA picks have gone 16-11 since the break this season, including 7-1 on two-unit plays. I see a ton of value on the spread, which is my two-unit pick for best bet of the night.
Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas Aces:
Tonight’s game is the third matchup between the Aces and Sky this season and each team earned a win on their home court to split the first two games of the season series. Both teams are locked into playoff spots, with the Sky guaranteed the sixth seed and the Aces likely to end up with the second seed.
Chicago’s defense has held opponents to the fourth-fewest overall points-per-possession (PPP) scored, ranking in the top-three against possessions with post-ups, transition plays, cutters and off screens. I’m particularly interested in the post defense, as Chicago held opponents to the third-lowest PPP on post ups while holding opponents to just 44.9% in post-up possessions (including free-throws), also the third-lowest mark in the league.
Offensively, the Aces rely mostly on post ups as it makes up 16.6% of the team’s possessions, 4.6% more than the next highest team in post up frequency. Las Vegas scored the fifth-highest PPP on those plays, lower than expected for a team so reliant on post ups, and they could drop even further without star center Liz Cambage.
Cambage has the WNBA’s highest PPP mark on offensive post-up possessions while holding opponents to the lowest defensive PPP against post ups among players to defend more than one post-up possession per game. Cambage’s two-way dominance in the post -- combined with A’ja Wilson‘s MVP-caliber play -- provides Las Vegas with the physical identity that head coach Bill Laimbeer strives to attain. As such, the Aces could struggle with Cambage off the floor.
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The Sky leads the league in assists per game this season. Courtney Vandersloot once again leads the WNBA in assists per game after making history last year as the first WNBA player to average double-digit assists in a season. Vandersloot is also one of the league’s top defenders, with the third-most defensive win shares among guards this season and third-most steals per game. While Vandersloot’s scoring hasn’t been consistent this year, the veteran point guard is undoubtedly among the greatest distributors in WNBA history and set up Chicago’s league-leading rollers in the pick-and-roll game all season.
Chicago led the league in PPP scored using a pick-and-roll roller this season, and while the absence of center Steph Dolson could be an issue -- she led the team in frequency of possessions as a roller -- four other Sky players put up a PPP of one or higher on possessions as rollers this season.
One of those players, Ruthy Hebard, could have a larger-than-usual role in tonight’s matchup as an interior presence against the physical Aces. Hebard scored in the 90th percentile of overall offensive PPP this season with a 98th percentile rank as a pick-and-roll roller and 94th percentile on putbacks. The Aces only rank sixth in defensive PPP against pick-and-roll rollers and no player guarded rollers at a higher frequency than Cambage this year, who held opposing rollers to 0.88 PPP while guarding those plays for 24.1% of her defensive possessions this season.
Two-time WNBA MVP Candace Parker is among the best defensive players in the league and should give Wilson, the reigning MVP, a challenge on the offensive end. Parker ranked in the 94th percentile of overall defensive PPP allowed and the 96th percentile against spot-ups.
The Sky rely heavily on spot-up plays, with the fifth-highest frequency of spot-ups compared to Las Vegas’s league-low rate of only 15.2% of possessions ending in spot-up shots. Part of the impetus behind Chicago’s high spot-up rate is shooting guard Allie Quigley.
Quigley is one of the most proficient shooters in the league, with three victories in the three-point contest and the third-best effective field goal percentage among all eligible guards this season. The veteran put up a 45/45/96% shooting line this season, with her 45% mark from deep leading all players with more than one made three-pointer per game. Quigley scored 1.08 PPP to rank in the 96th percentile of overall offensive efficiency this season, including the 94th percentile on spot-up possessions and the 96th percentile on plays coming off screens.
Dana Evans is benefitting from Quigley’s tutelage, as the Sky attempt to develop the rookie into the team’s next sharpshooting guard. Evans scored in the 98th percentile of PPP from spot-up plays and shot 41% from three-point territory this season.
Chicago is a solid shooting team, and I think this will be a big advantage against the Aces’ lack of spacing. Las Vegas attempted the fewest three-point attempts in the league this season and will need to rely on getting to the free throw line to win tonight. The Aces took a league-high 22.4 free throws per game this year, with no other team averaging above 20 freebies per game, but Chicago led the league in free throw percentage.
The Sky should also find success in transition as the team scored the second-most fast-break points per game and the third-highest PPP on transition possessions. This game features the top-two teams in average points in the paint per game, so expect a physical battle on the interior.
Ultimately, I think the Sky’s spacing and interior defense will be too much for the Aces to overcome on the road without Cambage. I’m taking Chicago’s spread as a two-unit play and my best bet for Friday’s WNBA action.
EDGE: Chicago Sky +4.5 (Two Units)
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