The 12-team College Football Playoff bracket that we have now was first proposed in June 2021. This was a month before we found out that Oklahoma and Texas had been talking to the SEC, and that they’d soon be leaving the Big 12.
We all know what happened after that — a massive round of conference realignment that led to the formation of four megaconferences of 16 to 18 teams apiece. The original idea of a format with six conference champions (because the Pac-12 existed and rounded out a Power 5, plus the top-ranked Group of 5 champion) and six at-large teams made a lot of sense for a sport that had regional balance at the time. It was easy to envision USC or Oregon taking the Pac-12 champion auto-bid on a regular basis, Texas or Oklahoma nabbing the Big 12 spot, plus Michigan/Ohio State in the Big Ten, Alabama/Georgia/LSU/whoever in the SEC and Clemson/Florida State in the ACC. But now a bunch of those teams are in new leagues, schedules are imbalanced between teams in the same conference, and it’s hard to compare apples to oranges.
I still vastly prefer the 12-team bracket to the four-team invitational that preceded it. It has already delivered on its promise to keep more teams (and fan bases) engaged later into the season. Three of the Week 13 games with the most intrigue this season involve Indiana, Arizona State and Army. That’s what’s awesome about an expanded Playoff field.
But we’re also going to spend the next three weeks debating the rigors of an SEC schedule and resumes with big wins coupled with two losses vs. teams like Penn State that have piled up wins — but not any against top-10 competition — and fewer losses than their peers in the southeast. No matter what the postseason format looks like in this sport, there will always be space for disagreement. And that’s kind of beautiful!
My CFP projection includes my best educated guesses. My bracket assumes that Ohio State beats Indiana in a relatively competitive game, which would then keep the Hoosiers in the mix for one of the final at-large spots at 11-1 despite a relatively weak strength of schedule. It also assumes that Arizona State knocks off BYU this Saturday in Provo. I’ve got Colorado winning the Big 12 and earning a top-four seed, eking out Mountain West champion Boise State in the final standings. (I’ve got Boise State avoiding a rematch with UNLV in the league title game, which costs the Broncos a chance at another top-25 win opportunity.)
Texas remains my projected SEC champion, reaching the title game after beating Texas A&M in its regular-season finale. I’m not sure who the Longhorns’ opponent will be in Atlanta, but it’s quite likely it’s a team (like Alabama) that has two losses prior to championship weekend. The third loss coming in the SEC championship game will not knock that team out, which is why I’ve got Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia all in the field on Selection Sunday. I’m also projecting Oregon to beat Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, which would give the Buckeyes a second loss to the same team — something that I think the CFP selection committee would consider similar to just one loss to one team. I think the committee will be careful to avoid punishing teams that lose in their championship games ... particularly those in the Big Ten or SEC.
The committee might be able to take the same approach to the Big 12 and ACC. Each league’s champion automatically earns an auto-bid, so the winner is in. But if the second-place team is outside of the field heading into conference champion weekend, the committee can say it didn’t knock anyone down a peg for losing. If, say, Miami were to get upset in Charlotte, that’s a different story. But for now, if Miami and Colorado win, and BYU/Arizona State/SMU are on the outside looking in, I think it could be fairly clear-cut. It does seem quite possible, if not likely, that both the Big 12 and ACC are one-bid leagues in the first year of the 12-team CFP.
The most interesting storylines heading into Tuesday night’s CFP rankings are in the Big 12 and the SEC. BYU’s ranking will determine if the Cougs have a shot at all at an at-large bid (assuming they win out and lose in the conference championship game). The SEC pecking order will determine who is best-positioned to get at-large bids, too, as the committee will have to make sense of Georgia beating Tennessee, which lost to Alabama, which beat Georgia. In my projection, I’ve got Tennessee missing the field. We’ll see how that compares to the committee’s first crack at things following the ‘Dawgs’ big win over the Vols on Saturday.
