Maybe it makes sense for the Cubs to trade Willson Contreras rather than to give a 30-year-old catcher a probable five-year deal as a free agent. Still, isn’t this a team that wants to contend soon? Wasn’t that the point behind signing Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman last winter? Trading Ian Happ on top of Contreras would seem to rule out much of a chance of competing in a wide-open NL Central next year. Judging by the progress that Nico Hoerner, Christopher Morel, Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson have made this year, it seems like the Cubs should have a shot in 2023, assuming that they’re somewhat aggressive again this winter. It just seems like Happ could be a big part of that, and while he will be a free agent after next year, he’s not going to require a Jason Heyward-like contract to stick around.
National League notes
- The Cubs should, however, deal from their veteran bullpen, and it sounds like David Robertson might be one of the first relievers to go. That could put Mychal Givens in line for saves, but he’s also a strong candidate to be traded. Sidearmer Scott Effross seems like a guy to pick up in shallow leagues. He’s far from a typical closer, what with his 90-mph fastball, but he’s been exceptional against lefties, as well as righties, to date.
- I was all set to lead off the column with Juan Soto, but the truth is, I don’t have any special insight here. Obviously, Soto is worth about as much in trade as any trade candidate ever. It doesn’t make sense for every team out there to offer up the farm system for him, but more than just the usual suspects should be interested. If a team can afford a $150 million payroll, it can afford to pay Soto upwards of $40 million per year for the next dozen or so seasons. My guess a few days ago was that nothing would get done before the trade deadline. Now, I think it probably will. As for where and what in return, it doesn’t seem like anyone has a very good idea at this point.
- Luis Castillo will, most likely, make his final start as a Red today against his original organization, the Marlins. The best pitcher known to be available in trade talks, Castillo will net an exceptional return with another year left before free agency. When the news came down Tuesday that the Yankees had pulled prospects Jasson Dominguez and Trey Sweeney out of the lineup midgame, I, like some others, thought that might have been for a Castillo deal. Obviously, that wasn’t the case, but the Yankees and several other contenders should be in the mix. A deal will likely be a very good thing for his fantasy value, giving him a better supporting cast and probably a better ballpark for pitchers.
- It seemed likely that the Braves would make the switch from Ian Anderson to Kyle Muller in the rotation after Anderson gave up seven runs to the Angels over the weekend, but a broken bone in Muller’s non-pitching hand appears set to delay his arrival. Neither Tucker Davidson nor Huascar Ynoa is pitching well in Triple-A right now, so it’s looking like the Braves will stick with Anderson for now. Fortunately, Muller can keep his pitching arm built up and might not need to wait for the hand to heal entirely before he’s able to return. Muller will be a smart pickup if he gets a chance.
- JJ Bleday was hitting .257/.375/.547 with 12 homers in 41 games for Triple-A Jacksonville since the beginning of June, so he deserved his shot with the Marlins. At the moment, the Marlins have room for both he and Jesus Sanchez in the lineup, though that could change later. Those two are the same age and seem like rather similar hitters, though Sanchez offers a little more power. Bleday is the better defender and will walk more. I’m not sure either projects as an above average regular at this point, though they’re both still interesting. I’m skeptical that Bleday will offer mixed-league value the rest of the way.
- I don’t know that Andrew Heaney (shoulder) will stay healthy for any length of time, but I’d like to have him active right away in mixed leagues upon his activation from the injured list today.
- In order to showcase Josh VanMeter (.186/.255/.303 in 161 PA) and Yoshi Tsutsugo (.173/.254/.235 in 185 PA), the Pirates have gone four straight days without starting Diego Castillo. They’ll likely get a minor prospect for Ben Gamel, who would make sense as a bench player for a contender. Such a deal would make way for Jack Suwinski‘s return to the majors. They might be able to dump Kevin Newman, though that probably won’t net them anything of significance. They’ll also get less for José Quintana than they might have six weeks ago. And it doesn’t look like they’ll trade the two guys teams actually want, Bryan Reynolds and David Bednar. They’re obviously holding out hope that they might be competitive come 2024, though they probably won’t spend the money needed to make that happen. It all seems like a bad plan to me, though, oddly enough, they never requested my advice.
American League notes
- The Red Sox would seem to have good reason to sell, particularly in light of Chris Sale‘s broken finger and Nathan Eovaldi‘s diminished stuff since his back injury. Eovaldi, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Christian Vazquez and Matt Strahm are among their many players eligible for free agency this winter. There are reports that the Red Sox will hold on to Bogaerts and try to convince him to stick around, but as productive as Bogaerts is right now, he’s not going to be a viable shortstop for the duration of his next deal and an extraordinarily high BABIP is covering up for both a decline in power and a slightly higher strikeout rate this season. With Trevor Story already on the books, the Red Sox might be able to find a better way to spend $27 million-$30 million per year than betting on Bogaerts in his 30s.
- Ken Rosenthal’s report that the Tigers are open to dealing pretty much everyone created a bunch of Tarik Skubal speculation. I doubt they’ll go that far, since it would be pretty much writing off 2023 and they don’t need to do that while playing in a weak division. They do seem nearly certain to trade free agent-to-be Michael Fulmer, and if the return is strong enough, they’ll probably part with Gregory Soto as well. If both go, Joe Jimenez could get the nod in the closer’s role down the stretch. I trust Alex Lange more, but Jimenez has been effective and has closing experience. Of course, there is the chance that Jimenez could be traded, too.
- Giancarlo Stanton‘s Achilles tendinitis will sideline him for at least a couple of weeks, and it’s likely that the Yankees will be especially careful with the All-Star. It’s probable that they’ll trade for an outfielder, but Aaron Hicks looks like a nice play for now. Even with Stanton out, Joey Gallo isn’t playing regularly, largely because of Matt Carpenter‘s remarkable run.
- It’s a shame that the Rays are dealing with this many injuries, but I don’t really get how they had room for Yu Chang, Luke Raley and Roman Quinn in Tuesday’s lineup, yet Jonathan Aranda is still in Triple-A. Aranda is potentially one of the Rays’ five-best hitters right now, and he could offer some mixed-league value if the team commits to him. First, though, the Rays need to recall him from Durham.
- The Rays also had Josh Lowe on the bench against a righty Tuesday, which feels like a bad sign. They’ll definitely be on the lookout for an outfielder with Kevin Kiermaier now officially out for the year, and if they land one, Lowe might return to Triple-A.
- The Rangers are still playing Kole Calhoun regularly right now, but that needs to change if they can’t move him before the deadline. Those at-bats should go to some combination of Elier Hernandez, Bubba Thompson, Nick Solak, Steven Duggar and Steele Walker to see if they warrant any part in the team’s plans for 2023. Calhoun, who is hitting .219/.280/.382 with a big increase in his strikeout rate in his age-34 season, certainly shouldn’t be in those plans. Thompson would be one to pay attention to if he gets a callup; in the midst of a strong July, the 24-year-old is up to .296/.348/.459 with 46 steals in 48 attempts in Triple-A.
- Brett Martin is a perfectly acceptable left-handed reliever, but Tuesday’s blown save and loss to the Mariners was a good illustration of why he’s not a closer. Matt Bush has been the Rangers’ best right-handed reliever, and I’m surprised he’s not being held back for those chances. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like either José Leclerc or Jonathan Hernández is ready right now.
- I don’t trust Oakland’s Zach Jackson much at all, but there’s a real chance he’ll become the team’s closer next week, as Lou Trivino seems increasingly likely to fetch the team a modest prospect in trade. Jackson has allowed only an unearned run over his last 13 appearances and he’s up to 21 holds for the season, but he’s awfully generous with the walks (28 in 39 IP) and he’s somehow surrendered no homers despite being a flyball pitcher who has given up nine barrels this year.
- The Twins activated Miguel Sano from the IL on Tuesday, but with Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda playing well, it doesn’t seem like Sano should be viewed as a regular. He’ll likely play mostly against lefties for now, even though he has no platoon split in his career and has actually been quite a bit better against righties the last three years. Little should be expected.
- I’ll be posting the August rankings next week. Hopefully, they’ll be on time on Wednesday, but depending on how crazy things get with Tuesday’s trade deadline, they might be pushed back a day.
