NFL Draft Analytics Top 300

Updated on 4/23/2019.

The goal of this is to predict NFL success as accurately as possible solely using analytics. Specifically, I’m predicting Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value Per Game (AV/G) statistic using models that have college production, athletic testing, and consensus big board data.

After analyzing AV/G, I found that the statistic isn’t representative of positional spending and consensus positional value, so I’ve made slight adjustments in an attempt to have my top 300 big board reflect positional value, something that seems to be underrated during the draft. Adjusting for positional value will certainly make some people #MadOnline because the quarterbacks will be ranked higher than you are used to and the running backs and safeties will be ranked lower than you are used to. If you have a problem with that, ignore the overall ranking and focus on where they are ranked within their position.

Another thing that needs to be made abundantly clear is that these rankings include each prospect’s projected draft pick. There is a huge difference between ranking prospects with their draft capital in mind (that’s what I’m doing in the NFL Draft Analytics Top 300) and ranking prospects as if they were all drafted with the same overall pick. For example, projected top-15 pick Daniel Jones and projected Day 2 pick Will Grier basically have the same projection, but if Grier and Jones were both projected to be the 10th overall pick, Grier would be ranked much, much higher than Jones.

Lastly, one improvement I’ve had in modeling for the NFL Draft is to separate positions into different archetypes. Like Josh Norris has noted on the Rotoworld Football Podcast -- subscribe and leave a review -- the weight difference between receivers Marquise Brown and D.K. Metcalf is 62 pounds, so it’d be silly to use the same model for each receiver. For that reason, I’ve split running backs, wide receivers, defensive tackles, and edge rushers into groups using weight or height as the separator. Doing so helped increase the out of sample r-squares for each model.

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NFL Draft Analytics Top 300

Just wanted to remind you that the models include projected draft capital and are adjusted for positional value. That’s why Daniel Jones is ranked highly when he’s absolutely not an analytics quarterback.

Prospect	Position Percentile	Analytics Rank	Position Rank	Proj. Pick
Kyler Murray	1.00	1	QB1	1
Dwayne Haskins	0.91	2	QB2	11
Ed Oliver	0.99	3	DT1	5
Montez Sweat	0.96	4	EDGE1	16
Drew Lock	0.80	5	QB3	15
Brian Burns	0.95	6	EDGE2	15
Josh Allen	0.93	7	EDGE3	6
Will Grier	0.74	8	QB4	60
Rashan Gary	0.93	9	EDGE4	16
Quinnen Williams	0.97	10	DT2	4
Noah Fant	1.00	11	TE1	25
Jonah Williams	0.97	12	OT1	13
Nick Bosa	0.91	13	EDGE5	2
Daniel Jones	0.61	14	QB5	12
Ryan Finley	0.61	15	QB6	65
Devin White	0.99	16	LB1	5
Khalen Saunders	0.89	17	DT3	95
Andre Dillard	0.92	18	OT2	15
Dexter Lawrence	0.88	19	DT4	26
Devin Bush	0.98	20	LB2	12
Jeffery Simmons	0.95	21	DT5	25
Deandre Baker	0.97	22	CB1	32
Cody Ford	0.89	23	OT3	23
Jawaan Taylor	0.88	24	OT4	9
Joejuan Williams	0.96	25	CB2	70
Julian Love	0.96	26	CB3	61
Christian Wilkins	0.83	27	DT6	14
Kaleb McGary	0.86	28	OT5	40
Renell Wren	0.75	29	DT7	80
Garrett Bradbury	0.99	30	IOL1	19
T.J. Hockenson	0.93	31	TE2	11
Clelin Ferrell	0.69	32	EDGE6	18
Chase Winovich	0.67	33	EDGE7	55
Greedy Williams	0.93	34	CB4	22
Chris Lindstrom	0.99	35	IOL2	27
Zach Allen	0.65	36	EDGE8	70
Ben Banogu	0.63	37	EDGE9	104
N’Keal Harry	0.84	38	WR1	34
Hakeem Butler	0.83	39	WR2	35
Trayvon Mullen	0.88	40	CB5	65
Tytus Howard	0.74	41	OT6	76
Andy Isabella	0.88	42	WR3	145
Blake Cashman	0.87	43	LB3	95
Byron Murphy	0.86	44	CB6	28
Isaiah Johnson	0.86	45	CB7	67
Irv Smith Jr.	0.87	46	TE3	53
Dalton Risner	0.72	47	OT7	40
Erik McCoy	0.93	48	IOL3	35
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	0.91	49	S1	39
A.J. Brown	0.84	50	WR4	34
Lonnie Johnson	0.84	51	CB8	38
Greg Little	0.70	52	OT8	43
Amani Hooker	0.87	53	S2	68
Darnell Savage	0.89	54	S4	35
Justin Hollins	0.59	55	EDGE10	152
D.K. Metcalf	0.72	56	WR5	24
Jamel Dean	0.80	57	CB9	86
Johnathan Abram	0.86	58	S3	35
Marquise Brown	0.83	59	WR6	25
L.J. Collier	0.56	60	EDGE11	49
Maxx Crosby	0.56	61	EDGE12	92
Jace Sternberger	0.85	62	TE4	66
Rock Ya-Sin	0.78	63	CB10	32
Amani Oruwariye	0.78	64	CB11	75
Justin Layne	0.77	65	CB12	45
Parris Campbell	0.77	66	WR7	38
Jachai Polite	0.54	67	EDGE13	59
Ben Burr-Kirven	0.77	68	LB4	172
Germaine Pratt	0.79	69	LB5	85
Max Scharping	0.64	70	OT9	90
Tyree Jackson	0.35	71	QB8	104
Yodny Cajuste	0.62	72	OT10	87
Connor McGovern	0.84	73	IOL4	90
Charles Omenihu	0.51	74	EDGE14	95
Emanuel Hall	0.64	75	WR8	103
Drue Tranquill	0.74	76	LB6	112
Elgton Jenkins	0.82	77	IOL5	44
JJ Arcega-Whiteside	0.63	78	WR9	72
Mack Wilson	0.71	79	LB7	45
Jahlani Tavai	0.72	80	LB8	80
Josh Jacobs	0.88	81	RB1	27
Dillon Mitchell	0.73	82	WR10	160
Bobby Okereke	0.69	83	LB9	129
Deionte Thompson	0.73	84	S6	56
David Long	0.63	85	CB13	87
Jerry Tillery	0.61	86	DT8	28
Kelvin Harmon	0.54	87	WR11	69
Dawson Knox	0.75	88	TE5	75
Nasir Adderley	0.71	89	S5	35
Juan Thornhill	0.71	90	S8	45
Saivion Smith	0.57	91	CB14	173
Anthony Nelson	0.42	92	EDGE15	89
John Cominsky	0.41	93	EDGE16	140
Dru Samia	0.56	94	OT11	98
David Long Jr.	0.63	95	LB10	143
Taylor Rapp	0.67	96	S7	49
Miles Boykin	0.50	97	WR12	60
Kris Boyd	0.54	98	CB15	140
Sean Bunting	0.54	99	CB16	53
Stanley Morgan	0.61	100	WR13	248
Derick Roberson	0.43	101	EDGE17	237
Clayton Thorson	0.28	102	QB7	148
Jarrett Stidham	0.27	103	QB9	126
Dennis Daley	0.52	105	OT12	119
Mike Edwards	0.61	106	S9	130
Kaden Smith	0.72	107	TE6	139
Deebo Samuel	0.58	108	WR14	56
Jaylon Ferguson	0.43	109	EDGE18	64
Ross Pierschbacher	0.49	110	OT13	144
Bobby Evans	0.48	111	OT14	109
Mitch Hyatt	0.47	112	OT15	200
Damien Harris	0.74	113	RB2	85
Michael Jackson	0.41	114	CB17	170
Darrell Henderson	0.82	115	RB3	66
Vosean Joseph	0.52	116	LB11	111
Oshane Ximines	0.37	117	EDGE19	108
Ashton Dulin	0.54	118	WR16	254
KeeSean Johnson	0.51	119	WR15	200
Kendall Sheffield	0.39	120	CB18	132
David Edwards	0.44	121	OT20	135
Malik Carney	0.35	122	EDGE20	181
D’Andre Walker	0.34	123	EDGE21	85
Gerald Willis	0.46	124	DT9	109
Dre’Mont Jones	0.43	125	DT10	59
Mecole Hardman	0.47	126	WR17	101
Michael Deiter	0.61	127	IOL6	82
Nate Davis	0.59	128	IOL7	96
Will Harris	0.41	129	S10	160
Montre Hartage	0.31	130	CB19	216
Mark Fields	0.31	131	CB20	162
Miles Sanders	0.71	132	RB4	50
Chuma Edoga	0.39	133	OT16	145
Darius Slayton	0.40	134	WR18	152
Trysten Hill	0.39	135	DT11	60
Marvell Tell	0.38	136	S11	171
Davante Davis	0.28	137	CB21	UDFA
Jamal Peters	0.27	138	CB22	UDFA
Derrick Baity	0.26	139	CB23	UDFA
Ugo Amadi	0.33	140	S12	163
Daylon Mack	0.27	141	DT12	165
Daniel Wise	0.32	142	DT13	128
David Montgomery	0.59	143	RB5	82
Christian Miller	0.28	144	EDGE22	99
Kahale Warring	0.51	145	TE7	101
Oli Udoh	0.36	146	OT17	193
Cameron Smith	0.38	147	LB12	190
Tim Harris	0.21	148	CB24	UDFA
Iman Marshall	0.21	149	CB25	254
Jordan Brown	0.18	150	CB26	173
Khari Willis	0.28	151	S13	203
Sheldrick Redwine	0.29	152	S14	200
Ryan Bates	0.46	153	IOL8	209
Foster Moreau	0.47	154	TE8	149
Josh Oliver	0.42	155	TE9	108
Caleb Wilson	0.41	156	TE10	215
Justice Hill	0.55	157	RB6	90
Marquise Blair	0.26	158	S15	164
Zedrick Woods	0.24	159	S16	251
Tyler Jones	0.29	160	OT18	190
Tyler Roemer	0.28	161	OT19	186
Trey Pipkins	0.26	162	OT21	200
Corey Ballentine	0.18	163	CB27	143
Jalen Hurd	0.36	164	WR19	140
Gary Jennings	0.26	165	WR20	168
Rodney Anderson	0.48	166	RB7	143
Austin Bryant	0.17	167	EDGE23	130
Benny Snell	0.43	168	RB8	190
Gardner Minshew	0.19	169	QB10	235
Keelan Doss	0.33	170	WR21	200
Blessuan Austin	0.15	171	CB28	UDFA
Derrek Thomas	0.14	172	CB29	186
Kingsley Keke	0.23	173	DT14	150
Brett Rypien	0.18	174	QB11	207
Olamide Zaccheaus	0.33	175	WR22	UDFA
Travis Fulgham	0.30	176	WR23	183
David Sills	0.28	177	WR24	170
Alijah Holder	0.11	178	CB30	UDFA
Gary Johnson	0.29	179	LB13	254
Sione Takitaki	0.29	180	LB14	220
Darius West	0.20	181	S17	247
Saquan Hampton	0.16	182	S18	238
Anthony Johnson	0.26	183	WR25	173
Deion Calhoun	0.35	184	IOL9	221
Hjalte Froholdt	0.34	185	IOL10	180
Cody Barton	0.26	186	LB15	232
Isaac Nauta	0.31	187	TE11	163
Lamont Gaillard	0.32	188	IOL11	156
Malik Gant	0.13	189	S19	187
Isaiah Buggs	0.20	190	DT15	150
Jordan Miller	0.08	191	CB31	218
Darwin Thompson	0.38	192	RB9	199
James Williams	0.36	193	RB10	250
DaMarkus Lodge	0.22	194	WR26	175
T.J. Edwards	0.24	195	LB16	231
Michael Dogbe	0.19	196	DT16	207
Alex Barnes	0.26	197	RB11	254
Ben Powers	0.28	198	IOL12	166
Joe Jackson	0.04	199	EDGE24	150
Rashad Fenton	0.06	200	CB32	UDFA
Isaiah Prince	0.16	201	OT22	231
Joshua Miles	0.15	202	OT23	214
Antoine Wesley	0.19	203	WR27	208
Dexter Williams	0.34	204	RB12	161
Devin Singletary	0.33	205	RB13	95
Emeke Egbule	0.22	206	LB17	185
Kaden Elliss	0.21	207	LB18	230
Armon Watts	0.15	208	DT17	192
Byron Cowart	0.13	209	DT18	227
Blace Brown	0.05	210	CB33	UDFA
Kendarius Webster	0.04	211	CB34	UDFA
Sutton Smith	0.21	212	EDGE25	224
Shareef Miller	0.21	213	EDGE26	215
Jordan Brailford	0.20	214	EDGE27	246
Jalen Jelks	0.19	215	EDGE28	148
Evan Worthington	0.09	216	S20	185
Trayveon Williams	0.29	217	RB14	135
Devine Ozigbo	0.23	218	RB15	215
Phil Haynes	0.20	219	IOL13	203
Beau Benzschawel	0.19	220	IOL14	175
Cortez Broughton	0.11	221	DT19	206
Bryce Love	0.26	222	RB16	230
Ryquell Armstead	0.21	223	RB17	185
Alexander Mattison	0.19	224	RB18	229
Terrill Hanks	0.18	225	LB19	150
Xavier Crawford	0.04	226	CB35	UDFA
Jamal Davis	0.13	227	EDGE29	UDFA
Carl Granderson	0.13	228	EDGE30	191
Ty Summers	0.17	229	LB20	236
Tre Watson	0.17	230	LB21	253
Jaquan Johnson	0.08	231	S21	178
Lukas Denis	0.07	232	S22	254
Yosh Nijman	0.11	233	OT24	UDFA
Greg Dortch	0.19	234	WR28	254
Trevon Wesco	0.18	235	TE12	195
Drew Sample	0.18	236	TE13	167
Jimmy Moreland	0.03	237	CB36	130
Mike Weber	0.20	238	RB19	220
Porter Gustin	0.12	239	EDGE31	UDFA
Ryan Connelly	0.16	240	LB22	253
Tyrel Dodson	0.16	241	LB23	UDFA
Mike Bell	0.06	242	S23	197
Dontavius Russell	0.05	243	DT20	191
Chris Slayton	0.08	244	DT21	254
Myles Gaskin	0.15	245	RB20	189
Qadree Ollison	0.11	246	RB21	250
Preston Williams	0.12	247	WR29	247
Andrew Wingard	0.06	248	S24	UDFA
Greg Gaines	0.03	249	DT22	250
Terry Godwin	0.14	250	WR30	250
Elijah Holyfield	0.10	251	RB22	254
Mark McLaurin	0.04	252	S25	UDFA
Kevin Givens	0.05	253	DT23	UDFA
Zach Gentry	0.15	254	TE14	254
Alizé Mack	0.14	255	TE15	254
Diontae Johnson	0.12	256	WR31	148
Terry McLaurin	0.06	257	WR32	70
Te’Von Coney	0.11	258	LB24	254
Terry Beckner	0.03	259	DT24	254
Jakobi Meyers	0.05	260	WR34	248
Riley Ridley	0.01	261	WR33	82
Dax Raymond	0.10	262	TE16	160
Karan Higdon	0.08	263	RB23	254
Deshaun Davis	0.09	264	LB25	254
Andrew Van Ginkel	0.08	265	LB26	UDFA
Dre Greenlaw	0.08	266	LB27	229
Donovan Wilson	0.03	267	S26	UDFA
Trevon Tate	0.08	268	IOL15	217
Paul Adams	0.05	269	OT25	UDFA
Derwin Gray	0.05	270	OT26	252
Joe Giles-Harris	0.06	272	LB28	234
Jonathan Ledbetter	0.03	273	EDGE32	217
Albert Huggins	0.01	274	DT25	251
Devon Johnson	0.02	275	OT27	UDFA
Nate Herbig	0.06	276	IOL16	244
Jovon Durante	0.07	277	WR36	UDFA
Felton Davis	0.03	278	WR37	UDFA
Tommy Sweeney	0.02	279	TE17	UDFA
Javon Patterson	0.05	280	IOL17	UDFA
Fred Johnson	0.04	281	IOL18	251
D’Cota Dixon	0.01	282	S27	UDFA
Jalin Moore	0.03	283	RB24	UDFA
Kerrith Whyte	0.02	284	RB25	UDFA
Jonathan Crawford	0.01	285	S28	UDFA
Hunter Renfrow	0.06	286	WR38	199
Jackson Barton	0.02	287	OT28	UDFA
Jordan Ta’amu	0.04	288	QB12	225
Lil’Jordan Humphrey	0.02	289	WR39	UDFA
Mike Jordan	0.01	290	OT29	UDFA
Hamp Cheevers	0.01	291	CB37	254
Andrew Beck	0.02	292	TE18	251
Ryan Pulley	0.01	293	CB38	UDFA
Kendall Blanton	0.01	294	TE19	UDFA
Alex Bars	0.03	295	IOL19	UDFA
Jeff Allison	0.03	296	LB29	UDFA
John Battle	0.00	297	S29	UDFA
DeMarcus Christmas	0.00	298	DT26	UDFA
Easton Stick	0.04	299	QB13	UDFA
Keenen Brown	0.00	300	TE20	UDFA
Travis Homer	0.01	301	RB26	UDFA
LJ Scott	0.00	302	RB27	UDFA
Ethan Greenidge	0.02	303	IOL20	UDFA
Jordan Jones	0.03	304	LB30	UDFA
Tyre Brady	0.01	305	WR40	UDFA
Jaylen Smith	0.00	306	WR41	UDFA
Darryl Johnson	0.05	307	EDGE33	UDFA
Tre Lamar	0.02	308	LB31	UDFA
Nick Fitzgerald	0.03	309	QB14	UDFA
Wyatt Ray	0.03	310	EDGE34	254
Zack Bailey	0.01	311	IOL21	UDFA
Kendall Joseph	0.01	312	LB32	UDFA
Dakota Allen	0.01	313	LB33	UDFA
Martez Ivey	0.01	314	IOL22	UDFA
Bryson Allen-Williams	0.00	315	LB34	UDFA
Nyqwan Murray	0.02	316	WR42	UDFA
Andre James	0.01	317	OT30	UDFA
William Sweet	0.00	318	OT31	UDFA
Jake Browning	0.02	319	QB15	UDFA
Otaro Alaka	0.00	320	LB35	UDFA
Gerri Green	0.01	321	EDGE35	UDFA
Jordan Scarlett	0.00	322	RB28	254
Trace McSorley	0.01	323	QB16	UDFA
Penny Hart	0.01	324	WR43	199
Iosua Opeta	0.01	325	IOL23	UDFA
Kyle Shurmur	0.00	326	QB17	UDFA
CeCe Jefferson	0.00	327	EDGE36	UDFA

Continue to Page 2 to view the variables in the models and some nuggets I picked up while studying the recent history of the NFL Draft.