The player props lines swung violently from the opening this week, and well into the evening. So I had a few plays I wanted to tout that simply weren’t available before I could list them here (Such as Chris Rodriguez, Kentucky UNDER 96.5 Rushing Yards....though I still like it at the current UNDER 82.5 yards too.) Here are my favorite plays from the rest of the slate:
Treylon Burks, Arkansas vs. Auburn | O/U 76.5 Receiving Yards
Though Burks was hobbled coming out of training camp, he still gutted it out for the first two games in victories over Rice and Texas. Since then, the receiver with arguably the biggest hands in the nation has been superb, going for at least 127 yards and a touchdown in three of the last four games, with the lone exception being a one catch showing against the dominant Georgia defense.
Fortunately for Burks, the Razorbacks are playing an Auburn team that is allowing 7.7 yards per pass (79th) while ranking 48th in big play rate. With the Tigers ranking 11th in overall rushing defense, it’s reasonable to expect Burks will once again be the major focal point of the Razorbacks’s offensive attack. With the number set at a reasonable 82.5 receiving yards that he has cleared by at least 45 yards in three of the last four games, the surefire 2022 NFL Draft selection is a sound bet to hit the OVER on this play.
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Brant Kuithe, Utah vs. Arizona State | O/U 40.5 Receiving Yards
For some reason, Draft Kings continues to put out Kuithe’s receiving yardage O/U and set the number in the 40’s. The inherent risk in this line lies with the fact Utah rolls out three tight ends, with Dalton Kincaid and Cole Fotheringham being the others, who all are rotated through the lineup and receive looks in the receiving game. Kincaid led last week with three receptions for 40 yards and a touchdown, while Kuithe cashed in an 11-yard touchdown run.
In fact, over the last four games the Utah TE group has only cleared this week’s 40.5 yard barrier once. This week’ Utah takes on an ASU defense that ranks 25th in limiting explosiveness and success rate against (37.3%). With Utah likely to deploy a run-heavy approach behind greenhorn starter Cameron Rising, i’m taking the UNDER on Kuithe gaining 40.5 receiving yards.
Tank Bigsby, Auburn @ Arkansas | O/U 82.5 Rushing Yards
While Bigsby started the season out with 100-yard performances in his first three contests, it’s important to remember that two of those games came against Akron and Alabama State, and the other came in a 28-20 loss to Penn State that wasn’t nearly as close as the score indicates.
However since then, Bigsby has struggled to find running room, rushing 18 times for 60 yards and a fumble in a tight game against Georgia State where the Tigers only had a 50% post game win expectancy. It’s only gone downhill since then, with Bigsby seeing just nine carries for 29 yards in a win over LSU and 10 carries for 28 yards in a blowout loss to Georgia last week. What’s even more troubling is freshman RB Jarquez Hunter has outgained Bigsby in two of the last three games and has earned the right to receive more carries.
This week, Auburn goes on the road to play an Arkansas team that held Texas superstar running back Bijan Robinson to just 69 yards on 19 carries. With Bigsby and Hunter seemingly developing into a timeshare, it’s going to be hard for him to eclipse the 82.5 yard mark. I am taking Bigsby’s UNDER against Arkansas.
Dontario Drummond @ Tennessee | O/U 67.5 Receiving Yards
With Ole Miss and Tennessee sporting a sky-high Over/Under of 83 points at the time of publication, it’s hard to lay off this game when it comes to the player props, so long as the line is reasonable. Enter Ole Miss’ leading wideout, Drummond, who has been Matt Corral’s favorite target thus far. He plays every pass snap and went from playing the slot to out wide almost exclusively following the injury to Jonathan Mingo.
Last game against Arkansas Drummond showed off his big-play ability by ripping off a 67-yard touchdown, and ending the shootout with 78 yards. Besides Ole Miss’ crushing defeat at the hands of Alabama two weeks ago, and a still excellent six catch, 60 yard showing against Tulane where he also ran for an 11-yard score and would have done more if the Rebels weren’t so thoroughly crushing the Green Wave, Drummond has comfortably surpassed the 67.5 yard barrier in his other three games.
This week’s showdown against UT is destined to be a back-and-forth shootout where Ole Miss is going to have to keep the pedal to the metal if they want to win. I love this OVER play on Drummond in what could very well be the highest scoring game of the weekend.
Raheem Blackshear, Virginia Tech @ Pitt | O/U 46.5 Rushing Yards
The more Pitt scores, the less Virginia Tech is going to be able to run the ball. Not that VT is likely to have much success on the ground anyway, as the Panthers are allowing just 102 yards rushing per game thus far in 2021. In addition to Pitt’s stout defensive front that is currently ranked 9th in overall rushing performance according to CFB Winning Edge’s advanced analytics, Blackshear is splitting reps with Jalen Holston, Keshawn King and Malachi Thomas. Last game against Notre Dame, Blackshear received eight carries for 35 yards and a touchdown while the others saw 12 carries combined.
Beyond that, quarterbacks Braxton Burmeister and Connor Blumrick have been the main source of rushing yardage for the Hokies, rushing a combined 15 times for 68 yards and a touchdown against the Irish. So to tally it all up, out of 37 team rushes, Blackshear received just 8. He has been far more efficient as a receiver, securing 8 receptions for 73 yards over the past three games. With Virginia Tech taking on a top-10 rushing defense and a Pitt passing offense that ranks first in the nation, the Hokies aren’t going to have the luxury of salting a lead away and will be forced to throw in order to keep pace with the high octane Panthers. Accordingly, I am taking the UNDER 46.5 rushing yards on Blackshear.
