Arizona Cardinals
James Conner logged his second-lowest carry share (53 percent) of the season
The same is true of his snap share (45 percent) and route rate (35 percent). Conner’s lowered shares weren’t much of an issue as he ran 18 times for 107 yards. The Cardinals ran 34 times and spread the wealth around. We should expect Conner’s cut of the pie to expand as the pie itself contracts next week versus the Jets, but the fact that Trey Benson looked explosive on his nine touches could earn him more work going forward. He went for 55 yards and a touchdown.
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Atlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson is second among running backs in expected fantasy points over the past three weeks
Per RotoViz, Robinson is only 15th in expected fantasy points on the ground but has played an elite role as a receiver. He has 17 receptions for 142 yards and a touchdown over his previous three appearances. PFF has him graded as their No. 2 running back in the passing game this season and he is eighth in yards per route run.
Baltimore Ravens
Diontae Johnson played 17 snaps
Johnson only ran a route on 27 percent of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks and was not targeted. This falls in line with the role John Harbaugh said he would play in his Baltimore debut.
Harbaugh telling me he expects Diontae Johnson to play about 10-15 snaps as he’s still learning everything. He adds not only another weapon that can stretch the field but also adds depth in case of injury as season goes on #Ravens
— Tracy Wolfson (@tracywolfson) November 3, 2024
Johnson’s role will grow in the coming weeks, but the Ravens take on the Bengals on Thursday, giving them a short turnaround to make any sweeping changes. Johnson will stay on fantasy probation for one more game as he gets a grip on the playbook.
Buffalo Bills
Dalton Kincaid is 14th in fantasy points per game
Look, that’s not the most interesting stat I’ll cook up this week. I get it. I just thought he would be…better. Kincaid is 15th in yards per route run and 12th in PFF receiving grade. ESPN’s player tracking data has him at No. 14 in Open Score and No. 25 in Overall Score. The Bills should get Amari Cooper back at some point. Kincaid’s biggest asset right now is his large cut of Buffalo’s passing attack. Once Cooper starts to chip away at that, Kincaid will tumble out of the TE1 ranks.
Carolina Panthers
Xavier Legette has a 22 percent target share in two games without Diontae Johnson
Legette also has a 34 percent air yards share in those games and has seen both of Bryce Young’s end zone targets. The first-round rookie has eight catches for 67 yards and a pair of touchdowns over his past two games.
Chicago Bears
Keenan Allen leads the Bears with a 25 percent target share since Week 5
DJ Moore is narrowly behind Allen over that stretch with a 24 percent target share. Despite taking over as the Bears’ WR1 for a month, Allen has one game inside the top 40 wide receivers through his past four contests. Something has to give here. Either Allen’s fantasy production will rebound to align with his role or the Bears will return to a Moore-focused attack.
Cincinnati Bengals
Chase Brown led all running backs in expected fantasy points (27.6)
Zack Moss was ruled out with a neck injury late in the week and the Bengals made the entire plane out of Brown, running him 27 times for 120 yards with five receptions for 37 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals added Khalil Herbert via trade, so this will likely go down as a high-water mark for Brown. But, it’s a strong sign that they were willing to give him such an absurd workload for even a week.
Dallas Cowboys
Rico Dowdle set a season-high in snap share (73 percent)
That is 22 percent higher than his previous best mark. Dowdle ran 12 times for 75 yards and caught an additional five passes. Ezekiel Elliott was made a healthy scratch and Dalvin Cook only earned two touches. Zeke may return to the lineup at some point or Cook’s role could tick up, but this is a Dowdle backfield for now.
Denver Broncos
Courtland Sutton has seen 31 percent of the Broncos’ targets over the past two weeks
His air yards share sits at 41 percent during that stretch and he hit triple-digit receiving yards in both contests. The Broncos don’t have any answers at WR2 or TE1. Sutton aside, Lil’Jordan Humphrey is the only Denver receiver to run a route on half of Bo Nix’s dropbacks in one of their past two games and he only managed to hit 54 percent in Week 8. Denver doesn’t have a majority route-runner at tight end either. Like it or not, Sutton is the only reliable pass-catcher on the roster.
Detroit Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs set a season-low in snap share (36 percent)
That was his lowest mark since the Wild Card Round of last year’s playoffs and his lowest regular season mark since Week 1 of 2023. His 34 percent carry share was also a low dating back to Detroit’s Wild Card win over the Rams. I don’t expect Gibbs’ role to stay this meager, but Week 9 threw cold water on the idea that he was taking over the backfield.
Houston Texans
Tank Dell earned a 32 percent target share
Week 9 was Dell’s first game without Nico Collins or Stefon Diggs. He had one game with a target share over 23 percent heading into Sunday. Dell tied his season-high in targets and set a new best mark in target share. The second-year wideout caught six passes for 126 yards. Fantasy managers will want to keep a close eye on Collins’ practice reports this week.
Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman has been targeted on 15 percent of his routes since Week 5
That would rank 61st among all wide receivers (min. 150 routes) this year. Pittman’s target share is down to 17 percent in his past five games and he has one WR2 weekly finish during that stretch. Downs has relegated him to a WR4 ranking.
Jacksonville Jaguars
D’Ernest Johnson saw the only end zone carry for a Jaguars running back
Johnson and Trevor Lawrence were the only Jacksonville players to get a carry inside the five. Tank Bigsby led the Jags in routes while Travis Etienne paced the backfield in targets. It was Etienne’s first game back from a lengthy hamstring injury and the Jacksonville backfield was a convoluted mess.
Kansas City Chiefs
DeAndre Hopkins is the first Chiefs receiver with two receiving touchdowns in a game since Tyreek Hill was traded
Hopkins played something similar to the Rashee Rice role in Week 9. His aDOT went from 15 in Week 8 to 8.8 and his slot rate ballooned from 14.3 percent to 45.7 percent. Hopkins was targeted on 26 percent of his routes and saw two-thirds of the team’s end zone targets.
Los Angeles Chargers
Quentin Johnston has seen at least 29 percent of the Chargers’ air yards in every game that he has finished
Johnston left Week 6 early with an ankle injury and only logged three shallow targets. He has otherwise been the Chargers’ go-to receiver on shot plays. Ladd McConkey led the Chargers in targets in Week 9, but Johnston’s role as a big-play artist will keep him on the WR3/4 border.
Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp earned a 41 percent target share before Puka Nacua was ejected
Nacua got ejected for throwing a punch at a Seattle defender just before halftime. The second-year receiver had four targets and 67 air yards at the time. Kupp had nine targets and 73 air yards.
Miami Dolphins
De’Von Achane is averaging seven catches for 63 yards and .75 receiving touchdowns in four Tua Tagovailoa starts
That is 17.8 PPR points per game through the air which would make him the WR8 overall without factoring in a single carry. Achane has been a monster with Tua on the field.
He is a contender to close out the year as the RB1 overall.
Minnesota Vikings
Sam Darnold is 26th in EPA per play (min. 100 dropbacks) since Week 5
Darnold is still throwing the football well. He has a 9.6 completion percent over expected and is averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. The issue is that he has been making back-breaking mistakes far more often over his past four games. In the first month of the season, Darnold had an interception rate of three percent and a sack rate of 8.6 percent. Those numbers are up to 3.4 percent and 11.4 percent.
New England Patriots
Drake Maye is averaging 4.8 carries for 49 rushing yards per start
Maye is posting over 18 weekly fantasy points and despite leaving one of his four starts after playing just 30 percent of the snaps. His weekly rushing line would be good for 837 yards over a 17-start season.
New Orleans Saints
Taysom Hill set a career-high in target share (19 percent)
Hill’s five targets were the second-most for him in a single NFL game. He was targeted on 31 percent of his routes and ran a route on 47 percent of Derek Carr’s dropbacks. With Chris Olave going down to another concussion, the Saints are trotting out an XFL skill position group aside from Alvin Kamara. Hill is going to be heavily involved if Olave is out for an extended period.
New York Giants
Malik Nabers has a 34 percent target share since returning from his concussion in Week 7
That’s actually five percent lower than his pre-injury target share, though 34 percent would still lead the NFL this year. Nabers has yet to hit 15 PPR points since returning from the concussion, but his role remains that of a potential WR1 overall. He is an elite buy-low if you can get him for anything other than a top-five wide receiver price.
New York Jets
Garrett Wilson has a 30 percent target share and a 49 percent air yards share since the Jets traded for Davante Adams
Those numbers were at 31 percent and 35 percent pre-Adams. Wilson is seeing a similar cut of the overall looks, but the Jets aren’t forced to funnel him low-value targets just to scrape 17 points together as an offense. The rate at which Wilson has been double-teamed has also fallen from 25.3 percent to 18.2 percent. He went from averaging 16.4 PPR points per game to 19.1 with Adams in the lineup.
Philadelphia Eagles
DeVonta Smith was targeted on 28 percent of his routes in two games without A.J. Brown
Brown returned in Week 6 and Smith has been targeted on 17 percent of his routes since then. His target share went from 31 percent without Brown to 23 percent with him over the past month. Brown is now at risk of missing Week 10 with a knee injury.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Jaylen Warren is averaging 11.3 touches per game since Week 6
Warren missed time in the middle of the season with his second injury of the year but has since returned to a 1B role in the Pittsburgh backfield. He has over 50 yards from scrimmage in back-to-back games. Warren is one of the better late-season stashes still available on some waiver wires based on his current RB3 potential with elite contingent upside.
San Francisco 49ers
Ricky Pearsall has run a route on 77 percent of the 49ers’ drop backs in two starts
Pearsall stepped into the lineup three weeks ago after missing the first two months of the season while recovering from a gunshot wound. The 49ers were immediately forced to play him in a full-time role. The one hangup could be Jauan Jennings’ return. Jennings missed both of Pearsall’s starts but is back at practice this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs haven’t had a player see a majority of their carries since Week 3
Tampa Bay fired up their three-headed monster of a backfield once again in Week 9. Bucky Irving led the way with seven carries compared to three apiece for Rachaad White and Sean Tucker. White and Irving each saw three targets while White got just under half of the routes. Irving is the best bet for touches and explosive plays, but Tucker’s presence has become a crisis for fantasy managers.
Tennessee Titans
Tony Pollard set a career-high in carries (28)
Pollard did not practice once during the week leading up to Sunday and was listed as questionable. We’ll chalk that up as “maintenance.” Pollard ran for 128 yards—three shy of his career-high—and added three receptions for 26 yards. Finding the end zone on this terrible Tennessee offense will be tough, but Pollard’s volume and efficiency renaissance will have him fighting for an RB1 ranking for the remainder of the season.
Washington Commanders
Noah Brown is 17th among wide receivers in yards per route run (2.03)
Brown is also 18th in ESPN’s Open Score. His 32 percent target share in Week 9 led the Commanders. Since Week 4, his first in a full-time role, Brown has an 18 percent target share. Brown popped up for a few spike weeks when the Texans’ receivers were injured last year and now looks like the No. 2 receiver for an offense that is third in the NFL in scoring.
