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Welcome to the Friday Walkthrough. Every week I’ll be outlining critical fantasy football context for the upcoming slate of games.
At the end of the article, I’ve included an extensive list of the stats used as well as what they are, why they’re useful, and where they came from.
Byes: Broncos, Rams
Already Played: Patriots, Falcons
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Saints at Eagles, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Saints Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 20.5
Trevor Siemian has yet to throw an interception this season and isn’t making horrendous mistakes. Still, he has not been good. Last week, I noted that Siemian’s poor play could be due to the small sample size, but that’s no longer true. We have 98 non-garbage time plays from Siemian this season. So at this point, we have enough data to help indicate what we can expect going forward.
Siemian ranks 32nd in EPA per play, which measures efficiency; only Davis Mills, Jared Goff and Zach Wilson have been worse. Siemian also ranks 33rd in completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which measures accuracy; only Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson have been worse.
The good news this week is that Siemian is going against a below-average pass defense. The Eagles rank 22nd in EPA allowed per dropback. They do have a strong pass rush, ranking fourth in Pro Football Focus’ grades, but they are beatable in coverage, ranking 21st in PFF’s grades. So Siemian should be able to continue to play poorly without totally tanking the Saints’ offense.
Honestly, that’s all we need. As long as Alvin Kamara or Mark Ingram can do his thing, we don’t need Trevor Siemian to light it up.
No Saints wide receivers are fantasy viable. Marquez Callaway leads Saints’ full-time wide receivers and tight ends with 1.37 yards per route run. For reference, Bryan Edwards has 1.38 YPRR this season. And Callaway is our best option.
Alvin Kamara won’t be at 100% health this week and isn’t set up for game-breaking weeks like he was in 2020, but he’s still an elite receiving back. Kamara’s 1.71 YPRR ranks 11th among running backs and leads full-time Saints players. Unfortunately, Kamara hasn’t been nearly as effective on the ground this season.
In 2020 Kamara ranked 13th in NFL Next Gen’s success rate metric, 15th in PFF’s elusive rating, and 14th in PFF’s breakaway percentage. He wasn’t necessarily elite in any one component of rushing but was very well-rounded. In 2020, Kamara consistently churned out yards, made people miss while adding yards after contact, and hit big plays. He’s not doing any of that this year. Kamara ranks 43rd in success rate, 41st in elusive rating and 48th in breakaway percentage.
Even as a receiver, Kamara isn’t quite what he was. In 2020, Kamara had 2.19 YPRR, which led the NFL. He’s still playing well as a receiver, but 2021 has been an overall decline for the star running back. Kamara is only 26 years old and has not been helped by the Saints’ low-volume passing attack. So to be clear, I’m not saying he’s done. I am saying that he’s having a hard time fully overcoming his situation, and that’s likely to continue this week if he plays through injury.
Still, as measured by PFF’s expected points, Kamara’s workload has been worth 20.4 points per game. And in the two games he’s played with Mark Ingram, his fantasy opportunity has actually increased to 21.6 points per game. Kamara is a thinner bet for elite efficiency than we’re used to, but his workload still sets him up for elite production.
If Kamara is unable to play, Mark Ingram will again slot in as a high-end RB2. Ingram handled 85% of snaps against the Titans and had 17.1 expected points. The Saints have no choice but to rely on their backfield, and if Kamara is out, Ingram is the backfield.
Eagles Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 22.5
Over the last four weeks, the Eagles have a -14% pass rate over expected. That is twice as run-heavy as the Titans were with Derrick Henry. The Eagles were a pass-heavy team to start the season but eschewed the Buccaneers’ pass funnel in Week 6 with a balanced approach and then shifted to the run in Week 7. They haven’t looked back.
The Eagles are 2-3 since they decided the rest of the league was attacking the Buccaneers incorrectly; they were 2-3 as a pass-happy team to start the year. But they are coming off two wins in the least three weeks, so it seems unlikely that they’ll revert to their early-season trend here.
The Saints have a well-rounded defense that teams have primarily attacked through the air. The Panthers, Patriots, Giants, Washington, Buccaneers, and Falcons all went pass-heavy against the Saints, despite facing a pass defense ranked fifth in EPA per dropback. The Seahawks are the only team that has been run-heavy against them, which makes sense because the Saints rank third in EPA allowed per rush.
The Eagles’ recent tilt toward the run has been so extreme that they were unlikely to maintain it this week, regardless of opponent. With the Saints’ help, we should see them come back to the pack a bit.
If the Eagles plan to ask Jalen Hurts to pass more this week, he’ll have his work cut out for him—Hurts ranks 20th in EPA per play and 25th in CPOE. Although, in fairness, he hasn’t been far behind Lamar Jackson this season (18th in both metrics) and is the only quarterback in the same ballpark as Jackson in rushing production. Hurts has 57 rushing attempts to Jackson’s 64 and 547 rushing yards to Jackson’s 639. So while he’s unlikely to pass efficiently this week, but he can at least challenge the Saints in multiple ways.
Hurts could be shorthanded this week, although Dallas Goedert returned to practice Thursday and is trending towards playing after suffering a concussion. Since Zach Ertz‘s departure, Goedert has 2.80 YPRR and from Weeks 7-9, Goedert ran routes on 83%-88% of dropbacks. In addition, Goedert has been targeted on an elite 24% of his routes while operating as a rare deep threat tight end, with a 12.0 aDOT. He’s thriving in a full-time tight end role and profiles as a borderline-elite option if he can play.
DeVonta Smith is also trending up, with YPTs of 19.3 and 11.0 over the last two weeks. He’s likely to cool off a bit from the recent trend, but Smith’s season-long production is sustainable. He’s been targeted on 20% of his routes as a pure deep threat with a 15.1 aDOT. If anything, his 9.1 YPT this season is lower than we’d expect, given his average depth of target.
Quez Watkins has a route rate of 96% in back-to-back weeks. This isn’t an offense where we’re looking to target ancillary pieces, but if Goedert misses, Watkins’ 13.6 aDOT means he can do a lot with a few additional targets.
This week, Miles Sanders looks likely to return from injured reserve, making Jordan Howard TD vulture and relegating Boston Scott to the bench. Sanders played well before being injured. He ranks 29th in success rate, 23rd in elusive rating and sixth in breakaway percentage. Sanders faces a tough run defense ranked third in EPA allowed per rush and first in run defense grade. But the Eagles could plan to play the Saints like Washington played the Buccaneers last week. If so, Sanders has upside as a high-volume rusher with TD equity.
Dolphins at Jets, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Dolphins Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 24
The Dolphins are moving forward with Tua Tagovailoa as their starter... but honestly, I can see why Jacoby Brissett was upset the Dolphins didn’t put him back in the game last week.
Tagovailoa ranks 25th in EPA per play, with Brissett at 28th. And Tagovailoa ranks 17th in CPOE, with Brissett at 24th. So Tagovailoa has been better, but it’s far closer than ideal.
As Josh Allen just reiterated, the Jets are the get-right spot of all get-right spots. The Jets rank 31st in EPA allowed per dropback, 17th in pass rush grade and 30th in coverage grade.
It was a small sample, but Tagovailoa ranked eighth in EPA per play against the Ravens in Week 10 and had his most efficient week of the season. Tagovailoa has also shown a knack for taking advantage of plus matchups. In EPA per play, he finished QB12 against the Jaguars in Week 6 and QB14 against the Falcons in Week 7. Tagovailoa isn’t exactly a superstar in good matchups, but he’s capable.
Volume is the other piece of the puzzle here. Miami is tied for fourth in pass rate over expected and ranks sixth in situation neutral pass rate. The Dolphins now face a Jets defense that is causing a 3% shift to the pass in PROE. Tagovailoa won’t need to be a superstar to have a productive day on a pass-first team playing a weak, pass funnel defense.
Jaylen Waddle isn’t just the Dolphins’ clear WR1; he’s their only full-time wide receiver. In Week 10, Waddle ran a route on 100% of dropbacks, while Albert Wilson, Preston Williams, Isaiah Ford, and Mack Hollins ran routes between 18-43% of dropbacks. It’s impressive that Waddle has emerged as such an integral part of the Dolphins passing attack. But the rookie has struggled to produce efficiently with so much on his plate. Waddle has a 1.43 YPRR, which is fairly poor. However, he is being targeted on 21% of his routes, solid for his 7.0 aDOT. If Tua gets going, he stands to benefit the most from improved efficiency. Waddle has shown enough to be an intriguing WR3 option this week.
Mike Gesicki is functionally the Dolphins’ WR2. He ran a route on 83% of dropbacks in Week 10 and is at 87% for the season. Gesicki has a 1.54 YPRR, with a target on 20% of his routes. Gesicki has a 9.7 aDOT, which puts him in a rare class of tight ends that frequently run deep routes. He looks like a TE1 this week.
Since Week 8, Myles Gaskin has a 64% snap share, 78% of backfield touches, and an 11% target share. With Malcolm Brown now out of the picture, Gaskin has become the clear lead running back fantasy managers thought they were drafting in August. But it hasn’t gone very well.
Per PFF, Gaskin has left 5.3 points per game on the field over the last three weeks. D’Andre Swift and Dalvin Cook are the only starting running backs who have been more inefficient over that stretch. Najee Harris, the least efficient starting running back in the league this season, is at just 3.2 points per game below expectations. Gaskin’s inefficiency is almost impressive.
Myles Gaskin somehow has 34 carries for 65 yards the last two weeks. Seems hard to do.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 16, 2021
This perverse accomplishment is unsustainable. Gaskin now faces a Jets defense ranked dead last in EPA allowed per rush and run defense grade. In other words, Gaskin’s incompetence has nothing on the Jets. With a distinct hold on the backfield, Gaskin is quietly poised for a spike week against a defense that just revived Matt Breida from the dead.
Jets Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 20.5
I start writing this column on Monday, but I try to avoid writing about uncertain situations until later in the week. I can’t tell you how happy I am that I didn’t write up Mike White only to scrap it and write up Joe Flacco.
That’s right, this week, we get the return of the prayer-yards king. Denzel Mims is doing cartwheels.
We haven’t seen Flacco play with this particular flavor of Jets misery. But we know enough about Flacco to have some ideas about how he might affect the Jets’ skill players.
In Week 8, Michael Carter and Ty Johnson combined for a 41% target share, and in Week 10, they combined for 30%. We’re unlikely to see that kind of enthusiasm for the check-down from Flacco.
Carter will still be a viable fantasy option, provided that Flacco can move the offense against a Miami defense ranked 14th in EPA allowed per dropback. This season, Carter has a 1.87 YPRR that ranks sixth among running backs and is second to only Corey Davis on the Jets. Carter also has a 63% snap share since the Jets’ Week 6 bye. He’s a clear lead back with a locked-in receiving role. He loses some target upside without White under center but is still a solid RB2 option.
Corey Davis stands to benefit from more downfield targets. Davis has been shockingly efficient for his surroundings, with a 1.93 YPRR and a 13.6 aDOT. Davis is a deep threat on the Jets; this should be a disaster. The fact that Davis has been efficient this season is wildly impressive.
Elijah Moore made some noise in Week 9 with two TDs but ran a route on just 51% of dropbacks in Week 10—splitting time with Keelan Cole, who ran a route on 51% of dropbacks. Moore is earning target volume at nearly the same rate as Davis, but he’s simply not a full-time player and should remain out of fantasy lineups wherever possible.
Washington at Panthers, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Washington Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 20
Washington is quietly among the best-coached teams in the league. Ron Rivera and Scott Turner are doing everything in their power to coax good offense out of Taylor Heinicke. Washington ranks ninth in pass rate over expected on 1st-and-10, taking advantage of defenses’ need to honor the run on first down. Heinicke ranks fourth in play-action rate, taking advantage of the defensive tendency to bite on run fakes. And Washington also ranks sixth in RPO (run/pass option) plays, which force the defense to play the run and the pass simultaneously. Washington is even adding bells and whistles, ranking ninth in percentage of plays employing motion. After all this... Heinicke ranks 21st in EPA per play. In fairness to Heinicke, Terry McLaurin is his only high-end weapon. But that won’t be changing this year, and in fact, McLaurin is now slightly banged up with a shoulder injury.
Heinicke faces an elite Panthers defense that ranks second in EPA allowed per dropback, 11th in pass rush grade and fourth in coverage grade. His coaching staff will help him out as much as possible, but it could get ugly if Heinicke drops back frequently.
Other coaches have been hesitant to expose their quarterbacks to the Panthers’ pass defense, turning the Panthers into a run funnel. The Panthers aren’t bad against the run; they rank 11th in EPA allowed per rush and 18th in run defense grade. But because the ground game is the path of least resistance, opponents are averaging a -4% pass rate over expected and shifting 3% to the run against them.
The Washington ground game has not lived up to expectations this season. But fortunately, Week 10 offered some signs of hope. Antonio Gibson rebounded in Week 10 with 78 scrimmage yards and two TDs. Even more promising, Gibson posted a 63% snap share, his second-highest of the season. Entering the week, Gibson was coming off three straight games below 45% of snaps. 63% is a nice showing, given his early-down-only usage.
However, it’s important to note that Washington led the entire game against the Buccaneers and employed a keep-away, ball control game plan. It was a perfect setup for an early-down workhorse. In that context, it’s actually a little concerning that J.D. McKissic still managed a solid 38% snap share.
Gibson is getting in his normal limited practices, so at least the additional work doesn’t appear to have caused his injury to worsen. Although, a flair-up of his shin fracture remains a risk this week.
Gibson has TD upside with Washington likely to attempt to win through the run game. However, as James Conner just illustrated, even a clear lead running back can fail against the Panther’s talented defense. If Cam Newton can also take advantage of Washington’s vulnerable secondary, that could push Washington to a true J.D. McKissic game script. This week, Gibson looks like a boom/bust RB2. McKissic is in play as a low-end RB2, with the hope that Washington plays from behind.
Terry McLaurin has an elite 23% target rate for his 12.7 aDOT. But he’s running very cold in YPT. This week sets him up for plenty of targets, but for the same per target inefficiency we’ve seen all season.
John Bates may get the nod at tight end this week with Logan Thomas and Ricky Seals-Jones both ailing. He is a fourth-round rookie out of Boise State who had just 579 career college receiving yards over four seasons... but there’s a good chance that he runs a full slate of routes this week. If you’re not looking to win a GPP while taking a zero from min-priced Bates, why do you even play DFS?
John Bates may receive more work this week. Scott Turner acknowledges he doesn't have the speed of Logan Thomas and RSJ but says Bates catches passes at their level and also has size they can take advantage of in the offense.
— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) November 18, 2021
Panthers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 23
We have a minimal sample for Cam Newton this season. But he played 15 games in 2020, which gives us a pretty good idea of what to expect. Newton ranked 29th in EPA per play between Jared Goff and Drew Lock. He also finished 34th in CPOE, between Ben Roethlisberger and Brandon Allen. Joe Brady may be able to get more out of Newton than Josh McDaniels did, but there’s likely not much left to get.
Newton is at least facing a weak Washington pass defense ranked 25th in EPA allowed per dropback and 29th in coverage grade. They rank fifth in pass rush grade but just lost Chase Young to a torn ACL.
Unfortunately, the new-look Panthers offense may not take full advantage of this matchup. 2020’s Newton-led Patriots had a 43% situation-neutral pass rate, ahead of only the Titans in 2020 and only the Lions this year.
The Panthers had a -2% pass rate over expected in Week 10, with P.J. Walker under center for most of the game, but the Cardinals are a run funnel. They could have just been playing the matchup to some extent. If the Panthers aren’t as intent on hiding their quarterback as the Patriots were, there’s some genuine upside for D.J. Moore in this matchup.
Moore has a 25% target rate with a 10.8 aDOT, and he’s run a route on 93% of dropbacks. All together, Moore has an elite target profile. The problem is that Moore has delivered subpar per target efficiency with a 7.6 YPT. Moore’s efficiency has been especially frustrating over the last two weeks, with a 5.3 YPT against the Patriots and a 3.4 YPT against the Cardinals. However, the plus matchup sets him up to rebound in YPT and makes him a WR2 option.
McCaffrey played 49% of snaps in Week 9, as he worked back from his hamstring injury. Against the Cardinals, he was up to 59%. While an expanded role was nice to see, McCaffrey is still nowhere near his 79% snap share in Weeks 1-2. McCaffrey also lost two goal-line TDs to Cam Newton, which had a massive impact on his fantasy day. Although, as Ben Gretch notes in Stealing Signals: “McCaffrey was tackled on the 1, got stuffed on a carry from the 1, and stepped out on the 2 in this game, so it’s not like McCaffrey didn’t have shots.”
Cam Newton will continue to threaten McCaffrey’s goal-line carries. But at the same time, if the Panthers’ offense can move the ball effectively again, McCaffrey is set up for a huge day. No other running back is as integral to his team’s passing attack as McCaffrey, and that could lead to colossal fantasy dividends in a matchup that should have the Panthers throwing heavily. McCaffrey is easily one of the strongest plays of the week at any position.
Colts at Bills, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Colts Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 21
Carson Wentz hasn’t been terrible this season, but he’s been solidly below average, ranking 23rd in EPA per play and 27th in CPOE. Wentz is only two weeks removed from finishing second in EPA per play against the Jets. But He’s also coming off a week ranked 13th in EPA per play against a very weak Jaguars pass defense.
The problem for Wentz is that he now moves from facing the 31st and 28th ranked defenses in EPA allowed per dropback to a Bills defense ranked first in EPA allowed per dropback. The Bills are on another level this season.
The crazy thing about Buffalo is that teams are still passing against them. The NFL has three premier pass defenses this season: the Bills, Cardinals and Panthers. The Cardinals and Panthers have become run funnels, but teams have been balanced against the Bills. This is partly due to the Bills’ ability against the run; they rank second in EPA allowed per rush and ninth in run defense grade. But it’s also assuredly related to the fact that teams know they will have to keep up with the Bills’ offense.
The Colts are a slightly run-heavy team and would prefer to lean on Jonathan Taylor this week. For that plan to work, though, they’ll need Taylor to rip off big plays—because the Bills are likely to be pushing the Colts on the other side as 7.5 point favorites. Even if Taylor plays out of his mind, the Colts are unlikely to be able to hide Wentz entirely.
The problem for Wentz and his receivers is that the Bills are set up to stop deep passing... the one thing that Wentz is above average at. The Bills have allowed the fewest 15+ yard completions this season in the NFL. Meanwhile, Wentz has been solid as a deep passer for the Colts, ranking 11th in adjusted completion percentage on 20+ yard throws. But if asked to move the ball downfield steadily, he gets a lot shakier. Wentz ranks 28th in adjusted completion percentage on intermediate throws, 17th on short throws, and 34th (dead last) on throws behind the line of scrimmage. If you take away the big play, you take away Wentz.
Michael Pittman is facing a headwind that goes beyond the Colts’ difficult matchup. Pittman has a 10.1 YPT this season, which is well above expectations for his 11.4 aDOT. So even if Wentz is having a good day, we could see Pittman disappoint compared to recent weeks. Pittman is talented enough to overcome the situation, but I think he’s more of a WR3 this week than a WR2.
Last week I expressed mild concern about Jonathan Taylor‘s underlying workload. There’s no doubt that he’s an extraordinary talent but entering Week 10, his workload wasn’t locked-in as elite. Taylor went on to post a season-high 78% snap share against the Jaguars. And Taylor has been at 69%+ of snaps for four straight weeks after averaging just 50% of snaps from Weeks 1-5. Over the last four weeks, Taylor has a workload of 19.6 expected points per game, ranked sixth among running backs. He was at 23.3 points last week. If the Colts’ offense is functional, Taylor will get his.
Taylor now faces a Bills defense ranked second in EPA allowed per rush and ninth in run defense grade. Facing a tough run defense isn’t Taylor’s only concern here, as Wentz could struggle badly against the Bills’ excellent pass defense. There’s downside risk for the entire offense to crumble here, but Taylor should still be considered an RB1. His workload looks to be in place, and his talent is simply off the charts. Taylor ranks first in success rate, first in breakaway percentage, and eighth in elusive rating. And even though he’s not generally thought of as a receiving back, he ranks ninth in YPRR, ahead of Alvin Kamara, D’Andre Swift, Austin Ekeler, and Nyheim Hines.
Bills Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 28.5
Josh Allen bounced back to an elite level of play against the Jets, finishing fifth in EPA per play and sixth in CPOE in Week 10. Overall, he’s having a somewhat disappointing season, ranking 16th in EPA per play and eighth in CPOE, yet is also the current favorite for MVP. Any disappointment we have for Allen is partly based on our expectation that he should go nuclear every week, and he only goes nuclear from time to time.
The Colts aren’t a bad pass defense; they rank 16th in EPA allowed per dropback, ninth in pass rush grade and 24th in coverage grade. However, they’re not a shutdown unit either. Allen is more than capable of having a good game here.
Oddly, this year, the Colts have been a small run funnel, despite ranking fourth in EPA allowed per rush and fifth in run defense grade. That’s partly because they’ve played a slew of run-heavy teams, including the 49ers, Texans, and Titans (twice). But no teams have gone particularly pass-heavy against the Colts, to the point that Baltimore has the highest pass rate over expected against them (8%). Again, I think this is likely a scheduling quirk. The Bills are likely to play to their strengths and the Colts’ weakness and could be more pass-heavy here than projections will generally indicate.
Biggest neutral pass rate notes:
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) November 15, 2021
+ Bills remain the outlier
+ Bengals more aggressive recently
+ Chargers less aggressive recently
+ Eagles confirmed run-heavy now
+ Titans two-highest neutral pass rate games since 2020 have came in each of the last 2 weeks pic.twitter.com/9D8zsx55Eg
Stefon Diggs’ was under-performing in YPT entering Week 10, but that didn’t necessarily mean he was “due” for a big game. That said, Stefon Diggs was due for a big game, and he got it.
In going 8-162-1 on 13 targets, Diggs had an absurd 45% target rate with an off-the-charts 5.59 YPRR. Diggs now has an elite 2.23 YPRR, which is fully supported by his target profile. His matchup isn’t a cakewalk this week, but Week 10 is a reminder that Diggs has an elite ceiling as Allen’s clear WR1.
Cole Beasley‘s health creates uncertainty for the rest of Buffalo’s wide receivers. Beasley had a 26% route rate against the Jets after being banged up against the Jaguars and posting a 63% route rate. Beasley is usually a full-time player who tends to have a weekly route rate of around 75%. He has a solid 1.62 YPRR this season but is difficult to trust with his snaps potentially limited once again.
Gabriel Davis was more productive against the Jets, but he ran a route on 39% of dropbacks, which essentially matched his season-long rate of 36%. He’s still a rotational receiver and cannot be trusted.
Emmanuel Sanders was targeted on only 8% of his routes against the Jets and has struggled to earn targets all season, with a 14% rate. But when Sanders does get targeted, he can rack up production quickly. Sanders leads the team with an 18.4 aDOT. He’s still in play as a FLEX dart throw.
Dawson Knox was a major disappointment against the Jets with one reception for 17 yards and a target on just 4% of his routes. But the bigger picture is bullish for Knox if Beasley is at less than full health. Beasley sees similar underneath targets to Knox. Sure, Allen only targeted Knox once last week. But why go underneath when the Jets let you throw 13 times to Stefon Diggs at an average depth of 16.6 yards?
The Colts will put up more of a fight, which should mean some additional underneath targets. Knox has only been targeted on 13% of his routes, but he’s a solid bet to have at least a 70% route rate and has upside for 80%+. He’s in the low-end TE1 mix.
Matt Breida headlined the Bills backfield in Week 10 but played only eight snaps. Breida saw three targets and scored two TDs. His involvement is a disaster for the backfield because he’s not playing enough to be startable but is stealing precious work for the snap leaders. Zach Moss led Devin Singletary 48% to 38% in snap share and is the preferred desperation dart throw.
Lions at Browns, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Lions Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 16
I mentioned last week that Jared Goff was due for some regression. In Week 10, we got it... sort of.
I thought Goff’s profile indicated positive regression, with his accuracy outpacing his efficiency. In Week 10, Goff didn’t show much progress in efficiency, ranking 24th in EPA per play. But he had the decency to at least be inaccurate as well, ranking 24th in CPOE. But we now know that Goff’s further decline was likely due to an oblique injury, which will keep him out of Week 11. Tim Boyle will start for the Lions at quarterback.
This week the Lions get a Browns defense that Mac Jones just teed off against. Jones had the highest EPA per play and highest CPOE of any quarterback in any week this season in Week 10. Week 3’s demolition of Justin Fields feels like a long time ago. The Browns now rank 24th in EPA allowed per dropback.
However, Boyle should be a get-right spot for this defense. The Browns still rank third in pass rush grade and eighth in coverage grade. It also shouldn’t be a surprise if the Lions’ passing game lay another egg here.
Speaking of eggs... T.J. Hockenson is coming off a goose-egg Week 10 performance; recording zero catches on a single target. The Lions will likely go out of their way to prevent that from happening again this week, but it’s still a terrible sign that a zero-point outing is even a possibility.
Hockenson has run a route on at least 82% of dropbacks in 8-of-9 games this season. But he’s had three games with a target rate of 9% or less, including a season-low 4% last week. He’s also had an aDOT of 6.5 or lower in 5-of-9 games which makes him dependent on target volume for upside and makes his inconsistent target profile all the more painful. As a result, Hockenson is a low upside option with a low floor. At any other position, he’d be an outright bust... at tight end, he’s still in the mix as a low-end TE1.
In two games without Jamaal Williams, D’Andre Swift has played 83% of snaps. Much like Alvin Kamara, additional snaps aren’t necessarily ideal for Swift. He can have as much value playing 70% of snaps, as long as he sees an elite target share and a goal-line role. The additional snaps aren’t worthless—as Swift demonstrated against the Steelers by making up for five receiving yards with 130 rushing yards on 33 carries. But Swift’s additional early-down work increases his risk of injury and doesn’t play to his strengths as a dynamic back in the open field. Jamaal Williams has been limited in practice this week, and his return would be a slight downgrade for Swift. But Swift’s ceiling would still be intact.
Browns Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 27.5
Baker Mayfield will be playing through multiple injuries against the Lions, as he now has knee and foot issues on top of a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder. The injuries are taking their toll; Mayfield ranks 22nd in EPA per play this season. He’s been decently accurate, however, ranking 12th in CPOE.
Mayfield should be able to find efficient footing against the Lions. Detroit ranks 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback, 21st in pass rush grade and 31st in coverage grade. The fact that Mason Rudolph posted negative EPA against them last week should disqualify him from any discussions as the Steelers’ next quarterback. Mayfield’s agent will be holding his breath on Sunday. The rest of us can be reasonably confident that the 2023 free agent will get it together this week... or at least do enough to keep the running game on track.
D’Ernest Johnson has to be the best third-string running back in the NFL. Johnson filled in admirably once again in Week 10 and showed some unexpected ability in the receiving game. Cleveland’s entire running back room was out for the game, except for Johnson, and they were trailing badly against the Patriots—so it was as ideal of a receiving script as a running back can get. But Johnson still had a very impressive 26% target share and delivered an elite 2.07 YPRR.
In Weeks 8-9, when playing with Johnson behind him, Nick Chubb had a 56% snap share and handled 70% of backfield attempts. Chubb tied with Johnson with a 6% target share as well. With Johnson showing some Hunt-esque receiving ability against the Patriots, he may see usage similar to Hunt against the Lions. But even if Johnson is the new Hunt, Chubb handled 60% of backfield attempts to 37% for Hunt from Weeks 1-5, and his target share wasn’t even much lower, at 4%. So Chubb can still be counted on as the Browns’ clear lead back this week. With the run-first Browns able to choose their means of attack against a weak Lions defense, Chubb is set up for a big day.
When the Browns do pass, their targets should be pretty concentrated. Donovan Peoples-Jones ran a route on 87% of dropbacks in Week 10, up from 65% in Week 9. He has 17.0 aDOT, so he can be productive on limited targets, which is good news given that he has just an 11% target rate.
Jarvis Landry also ran a route on 87% of dropbacks last week and has an impressive 23% target rate this year. However, he has a shallow 7.0 aDOT, which makes him volume-dependent and, therefore, a low upside option in this offense.
49ers at Jaguars, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
49ers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 25.5
If you ever find yourself frustrated enough with Kyle Shanahan‘s personnel usage to wonder if he’s an over-rated offensive mind, consider that Jimmy Garoppolo ranks fifth in EPA per play between Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes. Garoppolo ranks just 19th in CPOE, showing accuracy much more in line with his actual ability—as perfectly measured by the Kerrane eye test, of course.
Whether through coaching or his ability (definitely coaching), Garoppolo is having an impressive season, allowing Deebo Samuel to continue to post elite production even with Kittle back in the lineup and Brandon Aiyuk back to a full-time role.
Over the last three weeks, Brandon Aiyuk has run routes on 96%, 93%, and 100% of dropbacks. Whatever was going on early in the season is over with. Aiyuk has also been targeted on 21% of his routes, with an aDOT of 9.0. He now has a solid target profile and is locked in as a full-time player. He’s still well behind Deebo Samuel. Over the last three weeks, Samuel has a ridiculous 3.89 YPRR and has been targeted on 26% of his routes. He’s having a true breakout season, and so far, Aiyuk’s reemergence hasn’t gotten in the way of that.
George Kittle also hasn’t been a problem. The star tight end has been targeted on 29% of his routes with an 11.6 aDOT over his last two games, an absolutely elite target profile. For the season, Kittle has a 2.25 YPRR and looks set to use the rest of 2021 to make an irrefutable case that he’s the best tight end in the league.
As six-point favorites, the 49ers don’t strictly need to pass here. And the 49ers strongly prefer not to. They rank 31st in pass rate over expected and 28th in situation neutral pass rate. The quickest path to beating the Jaguars is through the air, however. Jacksonville ranks 28th in EPA allowed per dropback, 19th in pass rush grade and 22nd in coverage grade. Opponents are attacking this weakness, averaging a 3% PROE against the Jaguars and shifting 3% to the pass. The 49ers are never likely to have a truly voluminous passing game, but it would make sense to throw it more than they usually do.
The 49ers will run plenty as well, though. The Jaguars rank 20th in EPA allowed per rush and 22nd in run defense grade. They are a terrible defense, and it’s possible the 49ers just embrace their tendencies and go run-heavy against a defense with little hope of stopping them.
Jeff Wilson saw his first work of the season against the Rams but was clearly behind Elijah Mitchell. Mitchell had 61% of snaps to 23% for Wilson and led 73% to 27% in backfield attempt share. Neither running back was targeted.
Mitchell has withstood all challengers to his role since Week 1 but ranks just RB22 in expected points per game. Because he doesn’t have a receiving role, Mitchell is dependent on TDs to provide a fantasy ceiling. With the 49ers as six-point favorites, that ceiling looks more realistic than most weeks. If Mitchell (finger) misses, Wilson will inherit his TD-dependent ceiling and profiles as a solid RB2.
Jaguars Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 19.5
Trevor Lawrence‘s rookie season is circling the drain. He ranks 30th in EPA per play, and only Zach Wilson has been less accurate.
I tried not to be too harsh after Lawrence played terribly against the top-ranked Bills defense in Week 9. But he just played a much less imposing Colts defense and finished 21st in EPA per play and 25th in CPOE. Mason Rudolph, Mike White, Trevor Siemian, and Colt McCoy were all more accurate than Lawrence in Week 10. And Lawrence’s struggles have hardly been limited to one week. Lawrence has played very poorly outside of a sunny patch against the Bengals, Titans, and Dolphins.
Lawrence now faces a 49ers defense that Colt McCoy torched, but that limited Matthew Stafford. So there’s clearly some variance in how this matchup could play out.
For the season, the 49ers rank 27th in EPA allowed per dropback, 23rd in pass rush grade and 10th in coverage grade. If Lawrence is going to close the season strong, this is an obvious place to show signs of improvement.
Jacksonville’s wide receiver situation continues to be a dumpster fire. Against the Colts, Jamal Agnew scored a 66-yard rushing TD and totaled 79 rushing yards, but he also recorded zero receptions on five targets. For the season, he has a very poor 1.21 YPRR. Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault aren’t much better. Both wide receivers have 1.29 YPRR, making each a desperation-only FLEX option/waiver wire fodder.
Dan Arnold is the only receiver worth playing on the Jaguars. He has a 1.89 YPRR in Jacksonville, with a 22% target rate. He remains the de facto WR1. Arnold could face a route squeeze if James O’Shaughnessy is activated from injured reserve this week. While that might seem nonsensical, O’Shaughnessy was the team’s starting tight end in Week 1, and I can’t put it past Urban Meyer to ruin the only good thing in this passing offense.
James Robinson was back for Week 10 and handled 59% of snaps, with Carlos Hyde as 27%. Johnson dominated backfield touches, however, 86% to 14%, and had a 14% target share to Hyde’s 6%. There’s no doubt about who the lead running back is here.
The 49ers rank ninth in EPA allowed per dropback and 12th in run defense grade, so it isn’t an ideal matchup. But Robinson has an 11% target share this season and should be decently involved if Trevor Lawrence can get going this week.
Texans at Titans, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Texans Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 17.25
I thought that Tyrod Taylor might be able to breathe some life into the Texans’ offense in Week 9... he did not, finishing 26th in EPA per play and 24th in CPOE. As a result, Taylor now falls roughly where we expected before the season in efficiency and accuracy.
Taylor now gets a defense that has come on as of late. The Titans rank ninth in EPA allowed per dropback. And despite playing the Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams, and Saints, they rank third in EPA allowed per dropback since Week 6.
This sets up as another frustrating week for Brandin Cooks’ fantasy managers. Cooks continues to dominate Texans’ receiving volume. Cooks has a 30% target share, trailing only Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel, and he leads the NFL with a 45% air yard share. But that only goes so far on a low-volume, inefficient offense. Cook’s 2.03 YPRR is very good but he has been significantly less efficient than Kupp (3.06), Adams (2.82), Samuel (2.34), and Brown (2.30). If the Texans can ever get going through the air, Cooks’ role sets him up for a massive week. But because he’s on the Texans, he’s a low-floor option, despite keeping elite company in target volume.
With the Texans likely trailing this week, David Johnson is the favorite to lead in snaps, as he did with 45% of snaps in Week 9. But Johnson has just 18% of backfield attempts this season and 19% since Week 8. His 11% target share is something but not certainly not something to get excited about.
Titans Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 27.25
This season, Ryan Tannehill ranks 11th in play-action rate, and he’s up to ninth over the last two weeks without Derrick Henry. Tannehill hasn’t been quite as efficient without Henry, but he hasn’t cratered. He ranks third in EPA per play this season and 10th over the last two weeks. But with the Titans still heavily utilizing play action, Tannehill could quickly return to elite efficiency this week. If so, his ceiling now looks higher with the Titans more willing to throw without Henry on the field.
From Weeks 1-8, Tennessee had a -7% pass rate over expected, lower than every team’s current PROE this season. Over the last two weeks, they’re up to a 2% pass rate over expected. The Titans aren’t pass-happy, but they’ve made a significant shift to the pass. As a result, we can likely view them as a Seahawks or Ravens-style team moving forward, i.e., a team that would like to be run-heavy but knows it doesn’t have the personnel for it right now.
Although, if the Titans are itching to get back to their run-heavy ways, they have an excellent matchup for it this week. Texans’ opponents are averaging a -2% PROE and are shifting 3% to the run. If there’s going to be value in the Tennessee backfield, we should see it emerge this week.
After Adrian Peterson worked in for 33% of snaps in his first week with the Titans in Week 9, I assumed that he would see his role grow in Week 11. But Peterson held steady at 33% of snaps and maintained a 4% target share. And his percentage of backfield attempts actually dropped from 46% to 35%. So it appears that Peterson’s son isn’t the only one who thought his pad level was off against the Rams.
It was actually D’Onta Foreman who saw his role grow. Foreman saw 21% of snaps, 23% of backfield attempts, and 0% of targets against the Rams; he jumped to 35% of snaps, 48% of backfield attempts, and 7% of targets against the Saints.
Jeremy McNichols leads the team with 36% of snaps over the last two weeks but will miss this game with a concussion. As a result, Foreman looks like a risky but viable starting option.
Derrick Henry is still tied for the league lead in rushing
— Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat) November 15, 2021
The Titans could choose to lean on their passing game this week. It’s really up to them. Texans have become a run funnel mostly because teams can beat them easily and want to go home as soon as possible. The Texans rank 7th in EPA allowed per rush and 29th in EPA allowed per dropback, so they’re actually much better against the run than the pass. PFF’s grades confirm this; Houston ranks 16th in run defense grade and dead last in coverage grade. The Titans will likely get up quickly and then salt this game away, but A.J. Brown should be able to serve as the engine of their initial lead.
One of the most significant ways Titans have shifted since losing Henry is on 1st-and-10 pass rate. From Weeks 1-8, the Titans had a -12% pass rate over expected on 1st-and-10. They are at -1% over the last two weeks, in line with the Cardinals’ season-long rate. If the Titans continue to pass against Houston when they have to defend the pass and the run, it should help Brown bounce back from his one-catch, 16-yard performance in Week 10.
Even after last week’s 0.64 YPRR, Brown has an elite 2.30 YPRR this year. Even better, he’s actually running cold with an 8.5 YPT, which is below expectations for his 12.3 aDOT. So not only is Brown very likely to bounce back from last week, but he’s also likely to see some positive regression on his season-long per target efficiency—he remains an elite WR1.
Marcus Johnson benefited from Brown’s poor showing in Week 10, but his 5-for-100 day was likely a mirage. Johnson only ran a route on 60% of dropbacks and was splitting time with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (50%), Chester Rogers (37%), and Dez Fitzpatrick (23%). As a result, Brown looks like the only reliable option in this passing game.
Packers at Vikings, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Packers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 24
Aaron Rodgers returned in Week 10 after not being able to practice all week. It showed. Rodgers finished 16th in EPA per play and 17th in CPOE.
Rodgers has been much stronger on the season, ranking eighth in EPA per play and fifth in CPOE.
This week he faces an above-average Vikings defense that ranks 13th in EPA allowed per dropback, 12th in pass rush grade and seventh in coverage grade. Rodgers should be better than he was against the Seahawks, but regardless, he may struggle to support a ton of passing production because Green Bay plays incredibly slowly.
The Packers rank 29th in situation neutral pace and are snapping the ball with an average of 6.2 seconds on the play clock, the lowest in the NFL. Somehow, we are relying on Mike Zimmer to push the Packers here.
Davante Adams has been a bit quiet with lines of 6-42-0 and 7-78-0 over the last two weeks. But, even if the Packers have a low volume day, Adams can get back on track... because his share of the Green Bay passing offense remains off the charts. Adams has a 35% target share, a 44% air yard share, and leads the league in WOPR. Brandin Cooks is second in the NFL in WOPR and is as close to ninth place Tyler Lockett as he is to Adams.
While Adams can go off in any week, every other receiver needs a spike in passing volume or a random spike in efficiency to provide value. There appears to be a three-way split for the WR2, with Randall Cobb having a 72% route rate in Week 10, Marquez Valdes-Scantling at 69%, and Allen Lazard at 62%. Valdes-Scantling has a 21.3 aDOT, so he can get there quickly. But Cobb leads the group with a 1.28 YPRR.
Aaron Jones appears to have avoided a season-ending knee injury, but he will still be out for this week. That leaves A.J. Dillon in position for workhorse usage. Third-string running back Patrick Taylor saw just 4% of snaps against Seattle, and Dillon handled 70% of backfield attempts to 7% for Taylor. So with Jones out of the lineup, we could be looking at a true workhorse role for Dillon, with an 80%+ snap share and 85%+ of backfield attempts. Dillon appears locked in as a usage-based RB1 this week.
The critical question is if Dillon will also be targeted heavily. Jones saw a 17% target share against the Seahawk, Dillon was at 6%, and Taylor was not targeted. For the season, Jones has a 15% target share, with Dillon at 6%. But Kylin Hill has a torn ACL, and it’s not clear who else the Packers can turn to as a receiver in the backfield, so Dillon looks to be live for a significant receiving role.
Dillon has also flashed exceptionally well as a receiver. Despite being viewed as strictly a two-down player coming out of Boston College, Dillon has an elite 2.11 YPRR this season, which ranks fifth among running backs. That’s on a small sample of just 93 routes, but Dillon has a career 1.64 YPRR. He might not be a superstar in the passing game, but he’s not a total dud either and should at least be good enough for the Packers to run their standard offense.
With Dillon consolidating what has been a split backfield for years, he is in line to put up elite fantasy production. Since 2017 a Packers running back has had an 80%+ snap share in 18 games (28% of games). Aaron Jones, somehow, has only played 80%+ snaps only six times in 61 career games. He’s averaged 21.6 points when used as a workhorse. Jamaal Williams saw 80%+ snaps with the Packers nine times from 2017-2020 and averaged 18.9 points; Ty Montgomery played 80%+ snaps for the Packers three times in 2017 and averaged 20.4 points. Packers running backs with 80%+ snaps have averaged 20.1 PRR points per game since 2017, and 19.7 points per game since the Matt LaFleur era began in 2019. No matter how you slice it, this backfield is an obvious target when the work condenses.
Dillon has never seen 80%+ snaps. The closest he’s come is 58% of snaps in Week 16. He scored 25.9 points that week. Dillon’s season-high 42% snap share came in Week 5 when he scored 17.9 points against the Bengals. Dillon has been solid as a rusher, ranking 14th in success rate, 22nd in elusive rating and 24th in breakaway percentage. With the potential for an enormous workload, he should be a high-end RB1 play with Jones out.
Vikings Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 23
Kirk Cousins keeps hovering around league average in EPA and CPOE... almost as if he’s a mediocre real-life quarterback.
But currently ranked 15th in EPA per play and 16th in CPOE, Cousins is getting dangerously close to above average. The Packers’ defense is here to set things right.
The Packers rank seventh in EPA allowed per dropback, 13th in pass rush grade and fifth in coverage grade. They’re not an elite defense, but Cousins may have difficulty delivering a massive game against them... unless the Vikings increase their passing volume.
The Packers’ defense is a bit of a pass funnel. Opponents are averaging a 2% pass rate over expected against them and shifting 2% to the pass. On the other hand, the Vikings are a solidly run-first team, with a -3% pass rate over expected that ranks 26th in the league; they also rank 20th in situation neutral pass rate. So the Vikings are likely to remain run-first this week, but we could still see a slight shift to the pass, which will be helpful if Cousins struggles to play efficiently and/or the Packers are draining the clock on offense.
Justin Jefferson is an elite option every week. He has an elite 2.29 YPRR, with a 23% target rate and an 11.9 aDOT. Jefferson has access to an elite ceiling unless Cousins struggles and the Vikings double down on the run.
Adam Thielen and Tyler Conklin both have TD-dependent ceilings. Thielen has a 1.53 YPRR, which is perfectly supported by his mediocre target profile. Conklin has a 1.31 YPRR but is running very hot with a 9.7 YPT. He’s a less reliable option than Thielen but does at least have tight end eligibility.
Since returning from injury in Week 6, Dalvin Cook has a 77% snap share, which trails only Najee Harris over that stretch; and only Harris and Alvin Kamara for the season. And excluding his injury-shortened Week 4, Cook has 20 expected points per game this season, trailing only Harris, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey and Kamara. Cook has in been position for massive fantasy production this season but has left 2.7 points per game on the field, in addition to missing some time with injury. He now faces a Packers defense ranked 13th in PFF’s run defense grades, but just 28th in EPA allowed per rush. If the Packers play as slow as they usually do, it could allow the Vikings to lean on Cook in a low-scoring environment.
Ravens at Bears, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Ravens Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 24.5
Lamar Jackson ranks 18th in EPA per play and 18th in CPOE. If Jackson was a regular quarterback, that would be a below-average profile. But of course, Jackson also ranks sixth in the NFL in rushing yards. Najee Harris has handled 90% of the Steelers’ backfield attempts this season, and he still has fewer rushing yards than Jackson in the same number of games played. Despite playing one less game, Jackson has 92 more rushing yards than Jalen Hurts; he has nearly twice as many rushing yards as Josh Allen (639 to 322). When you add slightly below average accuracy to that package... it’s exceptional for fantasy.
This week Jackson faces an exploitable Bears defense that ranks 20th in EPA allowed per dropback, 16th in pass rush grade and 27th in coverage grade. Jackson has a very high ceiling every week due to his rushing ability. The Bears’ pass defense shouldn’t get in the way if he can also get things going on the ground.
Marquise Brown and Rashod Bateman returned to practice on Friday and look likely to play this week. Brown may be at less than 100%, but he’s still a strong play with an elite 23% target rate for his 14.2 aDOT. He’s only run a route on 87% of dropbacks this season, and his upside is a bit understated by his per game volume.
Rashod Bateman is up to a 1.83 YPRR that is in line with his target profile. However, Bateman fell to a 64% route rate with Sammy Watkins back in the lineup in Week 10. Bateman was clearly ahead of Watkins, who had a route rate of just 32%. But Watkins still negatively impacted the rookie enough to make him a low-floor option this week. Bateman could see more routes after Watkins made a few critical errors against the Dolphins, but it’s possible he’s not a full-time player with Watkins in the mix.
Mark Andrews led Baltimore with a 90% route rate in Week 10 and is at 79% for the season. With a 2.02 YPRR and an 11.0 aDOT he has a huge ceiling any time he gets in the 90% route rate range. If Fields can push the Ravens this week, Andrews is set up for a strong week, with Brown potentially at less than 100% health.
Latavius Murray looks set to return this week and should regain his lead-back role over Devonta Freeman. But Murray will likely be in some committee of some sort and is an underdog to play 60%+ snaps. He looks like an RB fill-in option, while Freeman should be left on benches.
Bears Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 20
Justin Fields ranks fourth in rushing yards among quarterbacks... but 85% of his yards have come on scrambles. Jimmy Garoppolo has just one less designed rushing attempt than Fields this season.
With the Bears coming out of their bye week, one could reasonably expect them to have more rushing plays installed for Fields. But I think it’s far more likely that we get more of the same from Matt Nagy and company.
The nice thing about the Bears this week is that their passing matchup is strong enough to set Fields up for a productive day as a traditional passer. The Ravens rank 26th in EPA allowed per dropback, 16th in pass rush grade and 18th in coverage grade. Fields should have a nice fantasy day here, even if he continues to see sub-optimal play design. Hopefully, he can deliver some efficiency to his receivers.
Allen Robinson has a 1.26 YPRR in a disastrous season for the impending free agent. He’s now doubtful to play this week with a hamstring injury.
Darnell Mooney already has a stronger target profile than Robinson, with a 26% target share to Robinson’s 22% and a 33% air yard share to Robinson’s 31%. He is also in line for some positive regression on his 7.8 YPT. Both Mooney (12.1 aDOT) and Robinson (13.2 aDOT) are operating as deep threats in this offense, so Mooney looks like the clear beneficiary if Robinson is out this week. It takes a leap of faith, but Mooney has a high ceiling this week as we’ve seen from a Bears’ receiver all year.
Cole Kmet is also under-performing his target volume, with a 6.8 YPT. He has been targeted deep, with a 9.0 aDOT, which actually gives him a bit of upside. He’s only been targeted on 19% of his routes, so he’s unlikely to truly have a big day, but he makes for an interesting DFS punt play.
David Montgomery returned in Week 9 and played 85% of snaps with Khalil Herbert at just 16%. While the path to beating the Ravens is through the air, Montgomery should get plenty of work this week. The Bears have a -4% pass rate over expected, tied with the Saints and Browns for 27th. They also rank 29th in situation-neutral pass rate. Lamar Jackson could quickly push the Bears out of a run-heavy script, but the Bears are very likely to be run-heavy when the game is close. Forgoing an easy passing matchup would hardly be the most suboptimal plan they’ve put in place this season.
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Bengals at Raiders, 4:05 PM Eastern, Sunday
Bengals Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 25.75
The Bengals were trending heavily toward the pass, but they regressed a bit in Week 9 with a -2% pass rate over expected.
From Weeks 1-3, the Bengals had a -10% pass rate over expected. Since Week 4, the Bengals have a 3% pass rate over expected, which is about where I anticipate them to settle going forward. But this week will test how much of their early-season identity remains.
Raiders opponents are averaging a -2% pass rate over expected and are shifting 4% to the run. Only the Chargers are causing a more significant shift.
The Raiders aren’t as bad as the Chargers at defending the run, but they’re better against the pass, which pushes opponents to the ground game. The Raiders pass rush, specifically, is outstanding. They rank first in PFF’s pass rush grades. They are also solid in coverage, ranking 15th, and rank 15th in EPA allowed per dropback. The Raiders are also solid against the run, ranking 12th in EPA allowed per rush and 15th in run defense grade.
Teams appear to be willing to run against the Raiders to neutralize their pass rush, even though their secondary is exploitable. The Bengals just had a test like this when they played the Browns, who rank third in pass rush grade. They ended running more than expected, although it’s hard to take too much from a game that quickly got away from the Bengals.
If the Bengals do embrace the run here, Joe Mixon is set up as a low-end RB1. Mixon ranks RB13 with 15.0 expected points per game. He has a 65% snap share and a 9% target share, which put him in position for spike weeks in the right situation. Mixon doesn’t have a ton of margin of error, however. Even if the Bengals do go run-heavy, it’s liable to slow the game down. And the Bengals already play very slowly, ranking 31st in situation-neutral pace. Furthermore, Mixon’s target share isn’t robust enough to ensure RB1 usage if the Bengals go pass-heavy.
And if the Bengals decide to take their chances against the Raiders pass rush, who can blame them? They have Ja’Marr Chase. Chase has regressed a bit and no longer has the best YPRR ever measured for a rookie. But he’s still second to Odell Beckham. He’s been targeted on an elite 23% of his routes for his 14.7 aDOT and could get back on track quickly coming out of the Bengals’ bye week.
Tee Higgins may have also benefited from some additional time to get on the same page with Joe Burrow. Higgins has a 25% target share to Chase’s 26% with a classic No. 1 wide receiver aDOT of 11.6. He should be having an incredible season—but Higgins is running very cold with a 7.6 YPT, while Chase is scorching the earth with an 11.9 YPT. As a result, both players should regress in opposite directions. Chase is still the better option, but Higgins will eventually explode if he can retain his target volume.
Tyler Boyd is in more trouble if the offense ends up being low volume this week. He has a 7.2 aDOT and a 1.47 YPRR that is in line with his underlying volume. He needs a TD or high passing volume to access a ceiling. C.J. Uzomah is in the same boat. He has a 1.32 YPRR and has been targeted on just 12% of his routes, despite a shallow 5.4 aDOT.
Raiders Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 24.75
Derek Carr was very impressive in Week 10, finishing third in EPA per play and third in CPOE. Granted, he went off against a weak Chiefs defense. But Carr profiles as a matchup-dependent streamer. The fact that he has a ceiling in good matchups is precisely why he’s interesting for fantasy.
The Bengals aren’t the Chiefs, but they can still be thrown on. Cincinnati ranks 11th in EPA allowed per dropback, 26th in pass rush grade, and 19th in coverage grade. Meanwhile, the Bengals grade better against the run, ranking ninth.
Opposing teams are aware of this dynamic and have attacked the Bengals heavily through the air. Bengals opponents are shifting 4% to the pass, and only the Buccaneers and Washington are bigger pass funnels. The Raiders are very likely to follow suit here because they already tilt toward the pass.
The Raiders are tied with the Chargers for sixth in pass rate over expected and rank fifth in situation neutral pass rate. Las Vegas is also consistently pass-heavy, with a PROE of at least 1% in 7-of-9 weeks this season.
Darren Waller has substantial target volume, with a 22% target rate. But Waller had a much more robust 27% target rate last season. He’s being used deeper this season, with a 10.1 aDOT compared to 8.1 in 2020, partly explaining his reduced target rate. But Waller is also simply seeing fewer targets. The good news is that Waller should have some positive regression on the way in his YPT. His 7.2 YPT is well below expectations for his 10.1 aDOT, well below last season’s 8.5 YPT, and well below his career 8.6 YPT. If Waller’s efficiency spikes this week in a high-volume passing environment, he can deliver a massive fantasy performance.
DeSean Jackson ran a route on just 13% of dropbacks against the Chiefs. His presence was felt due to his 20% target rate (and a costly fumble), but Jackson can’t be used as a dart throw unless his role grows substantially.
Bryan Edwards got in the end zone but had a 9% target rate and is at 11% for the season. He’s a better dart throw than Jackson but is still very thin.
Josh Jacobs ranks RB21 in expected points per game and is a solid but uninspiring RB2 option. The issue for Jacobs in this matchup, and in general, is that he’s in a low volume rushing attack and doesn’t hit big plays. Jacobs ranks 53 of 56 qualifying running backs in breakaway percentage and RB29 in YPRR. He does make people miss, ranking 19th in elusive rating. But he would need to be in elite offense to produce RB1 weeks consistently.
Cardinals at Seahawks, 4:25 PM Eastern, Sunday
Cardinals Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 24.75
Kyler Murray is back at practice and looks set to play against the Seahawks after a two-week absence. A strong return could help generate some MVP buzz for the third-year star. Murray ranks fourth in EPA per play and first in CPOE this season.
Seattle ranks 12th in EPA allowed per dropback, but they are a paper tiger. The Seahawks have played a schedule almost comically packed with run-heavy teams. The Titans (-6%), 49ers (-5%), Saints (-4%) and Vikings (-3%) are all bottom 10 in pass rate over expected. They’ve also played three balanced but inefficient passing offenses in the Colts, Steelers, and Jaguars. The Seahawks have played just two formidable pass-first offenses: the Rams and Packers.
Teams are shifting 1% to the pass against the Seahawks, but given who they’ve played, they might as well be the Buccaneers. Seattle ranks 16th in situation-neutral pace and 12th in pass rate over expected, so it seems unlikely they’ll intentionally slow down the game when they have possession. As a result, Murray is quietly set up for a big game in his return to action.
With DeAndre Hopkins out again, target share should be condensed, making Murray far easier to stack in DFS and his receivers far easier to rely on in season-long leagues.
Christian Kirk has had 97% and 91% route rates over the last two weeks and target rates of 21% and 25%. He played primarily on the outside in Week 9, with both A.J. Green and DeAndre Hopkins out of the lineup. And although he moved back to the slot for 72% of his snaps in Week 10, he was still the Cardinals’ clear WR1.
Interestingly, A.J. Green had just a 77% route rate in his Week 10 return, running fewer routes than Zach Ertz and Antoine Wesley. Green hadn’t been below an 85% route rate before Week 10. If Kirk stays on the field in 2WR sets over Green, that is a big deal for both players’ value moving forward.
Rondale Moore had an 87% route rate in Week 9, with Kirk on the outside. But he fell to 34% in Week 10. It could be that Kliff Kingsbury was working him in slowly after his concussion, but I think it’s likelier that he prefers having Kirk in the slot in 3WR sets, even if it means having Wesley on the field instead of Moore.
Zach Ertz has had route rates of 87% and 83% over the last two weeks. Maybe things change once Hopkins is healthy, but for this week, Ertz is a full-time tight end in an up-tempo pass-happy offense. He’s also bounced back from 2020’s brutal 0.92 YPRR to a 1.83 YPRR with the Cardinals, his most efficient showing since 2018. He’s a shamefully exciting correlation play with Murray.
James Conner disappointed against the Panthers with 15.4 PPR points after blowing up for 40.3 just one week earlier. Conner has averaged 15.9 expected points over the last two weeks, so Week 9’s spike week was the outlier, rather than Week 10. But Conner could see his workload increase with Kyler Murray adding significantly more value to the offense. Conner played 82% of snaps against the Panthers and has a high ceiling this week as a workhorse running back in a revived Cardinals attack.
Seahawks Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 22.75
Russell Wilson had a rough return from injury against the Packers, finishing 25th in EPA per play. Only Matt Ryan and Colt McCoy were less efficient last week. Wilson wasn’t quite as bad from an accuracy standpoint, finishing 19th in CPOE. And Wilson is still second in CPOE on the season, behind only Kyler Murray. But, shockingly, Wilson is down to 26th in EPA per play this season. He’s been less efficient than Taylor Heinicke, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, and Tua Tagovailoa.
It is unusual for a quarterback this accurate to be so inefficient, as you can see in the chart below.
Wilson ranks first in CPOE from 2018-2020 and 10th in EPA per play over that span. It’s fair to expect Wilson to be less efficient than his accuracy would indicate on its own (by some combination of his skillset, coaching, weapons, and offensive design). But even still, Wilson should see some positive regression soon.
Although... Wilson will have to be at the top of his game to produce efficiently this week. He’s going up a Cardinals defense that ranks 3rd in EPA allowed per dropback, 6th in pass rush grade and 6th in coverage grade.
The Cardinals are also set up to take away Wilson’s biggest strength: the deep ball. Only the Bills have allowed fewer 15+ yard passes than the Cardinals this season. Notably, the Packers have allowed the third-fewest deep passes this season. So the Cardinals set up as a better version of the defense that just stifled Wilson.
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are incredibly talented, but this matchup presents problems. Lockett has a 27% target share, and an elite 42% air yard share, while DK Metcalf has a 27% target share and a 35% air yard share. Lockett has a borderline-elite 2.08 YPRR, and there’s nothing borderline about Metcalf’s 2.34 YPRR. Even better, both YPRRs are in line with each wide receiver’s underlying target volume. While the Cardinals may excel at limiting big plays, they have yet to face a passing attack quite like the Seahawks. Both Metcalf and Lockett challenge defenses deep with aDOTs of 12.0 and 14.3. As is the case each week, they are unlikely to hit their ceilings together, but one of Lockett or Metcalf could be in for a big game here.
Notably, Gerald Everett had a route rate of 79% in Russell Wilson‘s return and was targeted on 21% of his routes. He had just a 2.8 aDOT, however, and is at just 3.3 for the season. His 63 yards in Week 10 could easily be his highest yardage total of the season.
This is not a pass defense that most teams are willing to mess around with. Cardinals opponents are averaging a -3% pass rate over expected and shifting 1% to the run. The Cardinals are also more vulnerable on the ground, ranking 8th in EPA allowed per rush, and are down at 31st in PFF’s run defense grades.
The Seahawks are a balanced team, but the Cardinals won’t have to twist Pete Carroll‘s arm to go run-heavy here. However, even if they do go run-heavy, Alex Collins looks like a TD or bust option. Collins ranks RB36 in expected points since Week 5 and has left 2.4 points on the field. If Murray is unexpectedly ruled out, Collins becomes more interesting. But assuming the Seahawks will have to keep pace with the Cardinals, he looks like a low ceiling / low floor option, as do any replacement running backs if Collins can’t play.
Cowboys at Chiefs, 4:25 PM Eastern, Sunday
Cowboys Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 26.75
After going ultra-pass-heavy in Week 1, the Cowboys head-faked toward being run-heavy but have ultimately settled in as a balanced team.
They have a 1% pass rate over expected this season and rank 12th in situation-neutral pass rate.
This week they face a Chiefs defense that is bad at everything, ranking 30th in EPA allowed per dropback, 31st in pass rush grade, 15th in coverage grade, 29th in EPA allowed per rush and 30th in run defense grade. The Cowboys enjoy both running and passing, and they should have no problem doing both here.
The nice thing about the Cowboys’ approach to the run is that they still operate quickly. The Cowboys rank second in situation-neutral seconds per play and have averaged the most time remaining on the play clock per snap. They run the ball to win, not to play keep-away.
Coming out of the Cowboys’ bye, we saw an increased role for Tony Pollard, with Elliott playing 49% of snaps to Pollard’s 42%. The easy win over the Falcons is likely skewing things, but as Ben Gretch pointed out in Stealing Signals, at least some of this was likely a genuine shift. And... it’s about time. Ezekiel Elliott is 15th in success rate; Tony Pollard is ninth. Elliott is 31st in breakaway percentage; Pollard is 19th. Elliott is 48th in elusive rating; Pollard is 9th. Elliott is 44th in YPRR; Pollard is fourth. There’s no area where Zeke is better than Pollard, except perhaps as a goal-line hammer. Pollard is a low floor/medium ceiling option, and Elliott looks a bit riskier than before but still has an elite ceiling in the highest total game of the week.
Michael Gallup‘s return definitely complicated things for most of Dallas’ receivers. But CeeDee Lamb‘s ceiling now looks, surprisingly, higher. Because, with Gallup back, Lamb was back in the slot, playing 70% of his snaps there.
The return of Michael Gallup moved CeeDee Lamb into the slot with great success: @NextGenStats said Lamb lined up in the slot on 61% of his snaps in Week 10, up from 16% in Weeks 2-9. He caught all 4 of his targets for 48 yards and 2 TD when aligned in the slot.
— Calvin Watkins (@calvinwatkins) November 17, 2021
And unlike we saw for most of last season, Lamb ran more routes than Gallup. It’s hard to say for sure that Lamb will play ahead of Gallup in 2WR sets. Due to the Cowboys’ blowout win, Lamb only ran a route on 59% of dropbacks. But there’s a decent chance that Lamb will man the slot in 3WR sets and then kick outside in 2WR sets, in which case he will be the Cowboys’ clear WR1.
Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup are likely to be inconsistent, although Gallup should be significantly more so. Cooper ran a route on 89% of dropbacks, even in the blowout win, and is a heavy favorite to stay on the field over Gallup in 2WR sets. However, Gallup will eat into Cooper’s targets in frequent 3WR sets, making both receivers’ spike weeks harder to get right. Nevertheless, both are solid starting options this week, given the matchup.
[UPDATE - Amari Cooper has been placed on the reserve/Covid list and will miss the next two games. CeeDee Lamb‘s interesting slot+ role is now out the window. He will play on the outside with Michael Gallup in 2WR sets with Cedric Wilson in the slot. Lamb’s ceiling arguably takes a small hit but he’s still set up as a high-end WR2. Gallup also profiles as a WR2, likely running a full slate of routes in the Cooper role.]
Don’t hit the panic button on Dalton Schultz. He ran a route on 81% of dropbacks, despite the Week 10 blowout and has a 72% route rate on the season. Yes, he was only targeted twice, going 1-for-14. But Schultz has been targeted on 19% of his routes this season, and his targets won’t evaporate overnight. Week 10 was likely just an example of the week-to-week inconsistency that Gallup’s presence will now [ultimately] mean for Cowboys receivers. Schultz represents an opportunity to play a receiver running 80%+ routes against the Chiefs in a projected shootout, getting targets from Dak Prescott. With a spread-out target tree, he has a low floor. But Schultz also has a high ceiling in this matchup.
Chiefs Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 29.25
Patrick Mahomes was back against the Raiders, ranking fourth in EPA per play and eighth in CPOE. For the season, Mahomes is up from ninth to sixth in EPA per play. But he actually dropped from eighth to ninth in CPOE. However, accuracy hasn’t been the issue for Mahomes this season.
As I noted last week, Mahomes had been holding the ball and inviting pressure. Interestingly... Mahomes actually took longer to throw against the Raiders than his season-long average. Meanwhile, the Chiefs faced Cover-2 on just one of their snaps, while the Raiders stuck with their regular Cover-3 scheme. I’ve pushed back on the Cover-2 narrative a fair bit, but at this point, I’d recommend that teams at least give it a shot. The Cowboys regularly incorporate Cover-2, so this week should be a better indication than last week if Mahomes has made the necessary adjustments.
Mahomes will need to be on point for this game to live up to its’ shootout hype. The Cowboys rank fourth in EPA allowed per dropback, eighth in pass rush, and 15th in coverage grade. They’re not an elite defense, but they’re close.
No matter how the day goes for Mahomes, Tyreek Hill will be heavily involved. Hill has a 28% target rate with an 11.6 aDOT. He has an absolutely elite target profile. However, due to a combination of nagging injuries and blowouts, Hill has run a route on only 81% of dropbacks, allowing his stellar per route efficiency to go under-appreciated. If this game is the back and forth affair that it’s projected to be, Hill’s additional routes can more than make up for the tough matchup.
To be clear, Travis Kelce is still an elite option at a position that desperately lacks them. But his target profile continues to have red flags in a way that we’re not used to seeing. He has a 22% target share, a 22% air yard share, and a 0.49 WOPR. That’s very strong for a tight end, but down from 28%, 22%, and 0.54 in 2020 and below Darren Waller, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, and Mark Andrews this year. However, like Hill, his per-game numbers are a bit skewed, and his 21% target per route run is stronger. But Kittle, Waller, and Pitts are being targeted at a higher rate. Kelce is still in elite company and has the advantage of seeing his targets from Patrick Mahomes, but he also has a worse target profile than a rookie, and he is far below last year’s numbers. Honestly, none of this changes a ton for Kelce this week, but I do think he’s slightly worse be than we’re accustomed to.
Byron Pringle ran a route on 67% of dropbacks against the Raiders, with Josh Gordon at 39% and Mecole Hardman down to 33%. Desperate for a third receiver, the Chiefs appear to be throwing their lot in with Pringle for the moment. Pringle is at least a deep threat, with a 14.0 aDOT. He’s only been targeted on 13% of his routes, but he can deliver value on just a few targets. He’s a hazardous but viable dart throw.
The Cowboys are much more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, ranking 16th in EPA allowed per rush and 29th in run defense grade. But the Chiefs are not constructed to capitalize on that weakness.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire may return this week, but even if he does, he is not a strong rusher. Edwards-Helaire ranks 24th in success rate, 36th in breakaway percentage, and 42nd in elusive rating. He’s a better rusher than Darrel Williams, but not the type of back you build a game plan around. Moreover, it’s not clear that Edwards-Helaire is a better receiver than Williams. You would think he would be, given that his college receiving production was a key reason why he was selected in the first round... but he hasn’t been a strong receiver as a pro. Edwards-Helaire ranks RB49 in YPRR after an RB35 finish last year. Darrel Williams ranks a more respectable RB22. Edwards-Helaire profiles as a solid RB2 in a matchup that could set him up for some chunk rushing gains. Williams also looks like an RB2 if CEH misses. Williams wouldn’t be as involved as a rusher but would at least have a lock on receiving duties.
Steelers at Chargers, 8:20 PM Eastern, Sunday
Steelers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 20.5
Ben Roethlisberger will play in Week 11 if he passes Covid protocols, but he’s yet to be cleared. If Roethlisberger plays, he’ll have a better chance of keeping the Steelers on track than Mason Rudolph. Rudolph got a cupcake Lions defense in Week 10 but ranked 14th in EPA per play and 17th in CPOE.
The Chargers are much more competitive against the pass than the Lions, ranking 18th in EPA allowed per dropback, 15th in pass rush grade and 13th in coverage grade.
Roethlisberger hasn’t been good this season, ranking 22nd in EPA per play and 30th in CPOE, but he earned those ranks against not-the-Lions, so he still looks a far better bet than Rudolph.
Chase Claypool will make his return against the Chargers. Claypool has a 12.0 aDOT, which isn’t a great fit for this offense. But he’s earned targets on 21% of his routes, impressive given Roethlisberger’s disinterest in the deep ball. His 1.86 YPRR is both above average and fully in line with his target profile. Claypool profiles as a boom/bust WR3 option.
Diontae Johnson will be heavily targeted regardless of who is at quarterback. Johnson was targeted on 25% of his routes against the Lions and has a 28% target rate this season. He’ll be better off with Roethlisberger under center, but he’ll be a WR2 with either quarterback.
Likewise, Pat Freiermuth‘s role looks pretty set either way. With Eric Ebron back, Freiermuth’s routes dropped from 76% to 63%. He was still targeted on 27% of his routes, which is fantastic. But Freiermuth comes with a low floor this week, as he’s no longer locked into a full-time role.
The Chargers, of course, are the league’s biggest run funnel. Opponents are averaging a -6% pass rate over expected and are shifting 7% to the run. That shift is the equivalent of the Rams operating like the Colts.
Regardless of who is at quarterback, Najee Harris will be the engine of the offense this week—as he has been all season. Najee Harris is RB1 in expected points this season. Unfortunately, he’s also RB143 (dead last) fantasy points over expected. Here’s the list of running backs who have left 20+ points on the field: Harris, Mark Ingram, Mike Davis, Chuba Hubbard, Leonard Fournette, Myles Gaskin, and Carlos Hyde. It’s not a great list to be on.
This isn’t to say that Harris is bad. The Steelers’ offensive line ranks 29th in adjusted line yards. Harris has been fighting difficult circumstances all season. Even in what was supposed to be a smash spot against the Lions, Roethlisberger was unexpectedly ruled out with Covid. Harris has gone over 20 PPR points five times this season. He could make it six this week.
Chargers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 26.5
Just Herbert has been struggling of late. He recaptured some of his magic against the Eagles but was inefficient once again against the Vikings.
Herbert now ranks 12th in EPA per play and 23rd in CPOE. He’s still having a solid season; it’s just been a bit shaky at times.
He now faces a Steelers defense that ranks sixth in EPA allowed per dropback. Although, the Steelers’ seventh-ranked pass rush is the strength of their defense, and T.J. Watt is highly questionable to play Sunday night. The Steelers rank 26th in coverage grade and Herbert could pick them apart if he has time to throw.
Time to throw would be great news for Mike Williams, who appears to be back in his pre-2021 deep threat role. From Weeks 1-3, Williams had a 9.8 aDOT and was targeted on 28% of his routes. His aDOT has since spiked to 13.4, and his target rate has fallen to 18%. In 2020, Williams had a 15.8 aDOT and was targeted on 17% of his routes. It’s been a disappointing stretch after the role change that Williams flashed early in the season. I don’t think that version of Williams is necessarily gone for good, however.
For one thing, Herbert was playing better with Williams earning more intermediate targets. Keenan Allen now has the more compelling target profile on a per route basis, with a 25% target rate with an 8.6 aDOT, after trailing Williams on per route volume until this point. But Williams has caught Allen in routes run, with each receiver posting a 97% route rate against the Vikings. Allen looks like the more reliable option, but I still prefer Williams for ceiling, as it’s always possible he gets back to his early-season form.
Jared Cook saw his route rate jump back to 62% after falling to 54% in Week 5. He’s a TE2 option as a TD dart throw.
The easiest path to beating the Steelers is actually on the ground, at least according to EPA, where they rank 26th in EPA allowed per rush. They actually rank fourth in PFF’s run defense grades, but having just watched the Lions’ third and fourth-string running backs run for long TDs against them, I’m going to side with EPA on this one.
The tricky thing with the Chargers is good rushing matchups aren’t necessarily the best matchups for Austin Ekeler, as exemplified by Week 9’s matchup with the Eagles. Ekeler tied his season-high 17 rushing attempts in Philadelphia but saw just three targets and scored 11.2 PPR points, his second-lowest score of the season. Ekeler ranks RB8 in expected points per game and is a locked-in RB1, but his fantasy managers will likely be better off if the Chargers stay aggressive through the air.
Giants at Buccaneers, 8:20 PM Eastern, Monday
Giants Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 19
Daniel Jones ranks 24th in EPA per play and 20th in CPOE. He’s been somewhere between mediocre and bad this season, but he should be mediocre to good for fantasy this week.
The Buccaneers rank 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback, 28th in pass rush grade and 12th in coverage grade. They are a highly beatable pass defense, and because the Buccaneers rank first in EPA allowed per rush, the Buccaneers are an extreme pass funnel. Buccaneers opponents are averaging a 10% pass rate over expected and shifting 11% to the pass. That shift is nuts. That’s the equivalent of turning the Vikings into the Bills. And every single Buccaneers’ opponent has shifted to the run.
The Giants are already a pass-heavy team with a 4% pass rate over expected that ranks 8th; they rank ninth in situation-neutral pass rate. Jones should have plenty of volume this week and should be able to play efficiently.
Hopefully, the matchup will allow Kadarius Toney to get back on track. Toney ran a route on 76% of dropbacks in Week 9, which was oddly behind all of Evan Engram (100%), Kenny Golladay (80%), and Darius Slayton (80%). And he was only targeted 5% of his routes, despite playing 91% of his snaps from the slot, which Jones usually has no issues targeting. Sterling Shepard looks likely to miss this game, which will have Toney back in the slot. He may be better suited for the outside, but Toney has been targeted on 24% of his routes this season and getting him the ball could have been an emphasis during the bye week. Fantasy managers should stick with him.
Kenny Golladay has a solid 1.74 YPRR that is in line with his target profile. Golladay has a 15.0 aDOT and has spike week upside in a matchup where the Giants could have volume and passing efficiency on their side.
Darius Slayton is also a deep threat with a 12.7 aDOT but has run cold with a 7.6 YPT. He looks like a discount Golladay.
Evan Engram may run every route again, but he has a terrible 1.08 YPRR, which aligns with his target profile. He looks like a TD or bust dart throw.
When the Giants do run the ball, they should have Saquon Barkley carrying the load. Barkley has been practicing this week and looks likely to return from his ankle injury. From Weeks 2-4, Barkley averaged 17.2 expected points per game, and that was up to 19.6 in Weeks 3-4. Obviously, these are tiny samples, but it seemed clear that the Giants were planning to lean on Barkley in a big way before his injury. It is an open question whether they will lean on him again in his first game back from a sprained ankle. But at the very least, I expect Barkley to be a significant factor in the passing game. I’m preparing to start him where I have him on rosters.
Buccaneers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 30.5
Over the last three weeks, Tom Brady ranks 26th in EPA per play and 17th in CPOE. However, even with this rough patch, Brady is still having a solid season, ranking seventh in EPA per play and 12th in CPOE.
Brady now gets a Giants defense ranked 17th in EPA allowed per dropback, 25th in pass rush grade and 20th in coverage grade. He did struggle against a poor Washington defense, but Brady should be very productive this week in another plus matchup.
Chris Godwin was playing through a foot injury against Washington but had a 94% route rate and looks just fine for this week. He has a much stronger YPRR than Mike Evans, 1.92 to 1.62. But Evans is a deep threat with a 14.8 aDOT, while Godwin is a slot option with an 8.5 aDOT. That makes the fact that Godwin has the higher YPT (9.8 to 9.3) highly unlikely to sustain. Both players look like good options this week, but I prefer Evans.
Cameron Brate ran a route on 79% of dropbacks against Washington with O.J. Howard at 41%. Howard looks more interesting on a per route basis, but Brate is a heavy favorite to run more routes. Although, Rob Gronkowski may return this week. He will be a boom/bust option in his return, as it’s quite likely that his routes are limited.
If Brady struggles again, the Giants offer the possibility to pivot heavily to the run; they rank 25th in EPA allowed per rush and 25th in run defense grade.
Leonard Fournette handled 65% of snaps against Washington, with Ronald Jones at just 2%. Assuming the 11.5 point favorites are playing from ahead, Fournette is set up for a high-end RB2 week. Fournette has also run a route on 51% of dropbacks this season, so he should see plenty of work unless the game gets totally out of hand one way or the other.
Sources
To write this article I relied on the following stats, metrics and grades.
- Implied Team Totals are calculated using the lines at PointsBet.
- Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play).
- Efficiency metric based on how much a play improved a team’s likelihood of scoring.
- I use this metric primarily for QB efficiency, but also for defensive efficiency.
- Data from Ben Baldwin’s rbsdm.com
- All EPA/play referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- I do this by setting win probability filter to between 10-90%.
- All EPA/play referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- Data from Ben Baldwin’s rbsdm.com
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- QB accuracy metric
- Data from rbsdm.com
- All CPOE referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- I do this by setting win probability filter to between 10-90%.
- All CPOE referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- Data from rbsdm.com
- QB accuracy metric
- Pass Rate over Expected
- Measures passing decisions against what would be expected given the game situation.
- Situation Neutral Pass Rate
- Measures pass rate on downs and in situations when a team truly has the choice to pass or run.
- Situation Neutral Seconds per Play
- Seconds between plays in neutral game script.
- Faster play generally means more plays, which provides more opportunity for fantasy scoring.
- Adjusted Line Yards
- Run blocking stat that has been correlated with elite fantasy running back seasons.
- Snaps and Snap Share
- Probably the single most important stat for running back opportunity.
- Teams check in and out of runs with only one back on the field. Being on the field is critical.
- Data from Pro Football Focus, AddMoreFunds and RotoViz
- Probably the single most important stat for running back opportunity.
- Target Share and Air Yard share
- The combination of these is called WOPR. Created by Josh Hermsmeyer, this metric scales from 0-1.
- Data from Pro Football Focus and RotoViz
- The combination of these is called WOPR. Created by Josh Hermsmeyer, this metric scales from 0-1.
- Routes run per dropback
- Snap share for receivers... since I’m not concerned with who is playing run-blocking snaps.
- Data from Pro Football Focus
- Snap share for receivers... since I’m not concerned with who is playing run-blocking snaps.
- Yards Per Route Run
- A YPRR of 1.8+ is good and anything 2+ is very good.
- This metric is particularly useful for young wide receivers whose role could grow as a result of strong play.
- It can also help identify truly elite wide receivers.
- It filters out in-game injuries and blowouts much better than target share does.
- Data from PFF
- Target per Route Run
- TPRR and Yards per Target combine to make up YPRR.
- TPRR is especially useful for tight ends.
- Some offenses and quarterbacks prioritize throwing to the tight end much more than others.
- Some tight ends are far better at getting open than others.
- TPRR is much more stable than YPT, so in small samples especially, I’d rather know who is drawing targets than what happened afterward.
- Expected Fantasy Points.
- Both RotoViz and PFF have similar Expected Points metrics that adjust opportunity based on the context of each play.
- I am referencing PFF’s metric unless otherwise stated.
- Both RotoViz and PFF have similar Expected Points metrics that adjust opportunity based on the context of each play.
- A number of other PFF stats including Time to Throw, Play Action Rate, Pressure Rate, Screen Passes and Defensive Grades.
