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We are entering the final week of the regular season (in most leagues!) in the longest fantasy season in history. In years past, most leagues would be heading into the playoffs right now, but the introduction of the 18-week NFL season makes Week 15 the most popular opening week of the postseason for most fantasy managers. Still, the point remains that it’s crunch time. This is when championships are won, and that means you need all the information necessary to take you to the promised land. That’s difficult with so many games every weekend, but fortunately, Strength in Numbers is here to break down the most actionable stats every week in a concise, numbers-filled format. Let’s get right to it.
1. JaMycal Hasty played on Sunday for the first time since Week 9. Before his injury, he played on third downs with Elijah Mitchell handling the majority of early downs. Against the Seahawks, Hasty played just two snaps. Jeff Wilson also played two snaps. In total, Mitchell played 49-of-58 snaps and was the only 49ers running back to record a rushing attempt. He also ran 17 routes on 31 Jimmy Garoppolo passing attempts, although fullback Kyle Juszczyk got 11 in his own right.
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan‘s love for Mitchell was evident right away, but it has only grown as the season has progressed. Once confined to a two-down role, the sixth-round rookie has taken on a larger pass-catching role throughout the year, although there was (reasonable) concern that Hasty could regain the passing-down role he had once he got healthy.
That was simply not the case. Hasty and Wilson each ran only one route. Wilson does lose some passing work to Juszczyk, but he’s now dominating backfield routes and has two straight games with a double-digit target share. Perhaps more important is that he has at least 22 carries in three consecutive games, and the 49ers have a Charmin-soft schedule during the fantasy playoffs, culminating with a perfect matchup against the Texans in Week 17 – championship weekend in most leagues. Mitchell is in concussion protocol right now and will likely miss Week 14, but he could be a legitimate league-winner once he’s healthy, and there’s only a handful of running backs who have more value than the Louisiana product for the fantasy playoffs (assuming he clears protocol by then).
2. Jamaal Williams was not a three-down workhorse with D’Andre Swift out. He was the main back on early downs, handling 17 carries vs. a combined seven for Godwin Igwebuike and Jermar Jefferson. However, he only played 35-of-72 snaps and ceded an alarming number of pass routes to Igwebuike. In the end, Igwebuike ran 24 routes on 45 Jared Goff dropbacks, Williams ran 12, and Jefferson ran three.
It remains to be seen whether Swift will return for Week 14 – the only information we have is Lions coach Dan Campbell saying his stud running back was “at least a week away” after Week 12 – but it is clear that Williams has a volatile role without his backfield counterpart. Campbell foreshadowed as much last week when he alluded to a split backfield without Swift.
#Lions coach Dan Campbell says RB Jamaal Williams is prepared to carry the load. “Certainly, we’re gonna lean on Jamaal quite a bit, but we’re gonna use Godwin (Igwebuike), we’re gonna use (Jermar) Jefferson. That’s part of the plan. They’re all gonna be able to play,” he said.
— Eric Woodyard (@E_Woodyard) December 1, 2021
On a team as bad as the Lions, it’s difficult to trust Williams when he could get phased out in negative game script. Detroit miraculously led most of the way – and won! – on Sunday, which led to 17 carries for Williams, but that’s not going to be the norm, especially with matchups against the Broncos and Cardinals on tap over the next two weeks. Williams is a risky flex option with Swift out, and his value will drop even further once the Lions’ RB1 returns.
3. Elijah Moore has arrived. Over the first 10 weeks of the season, Moore exceeded an 80% snap share just once (in Week 1 with a depleted Jets receiving corps). He’s now hit that mark in three straight games, notching at least eight targets in each contest with an average of 10.3. The second-round rookie led Jets wideouts in snaps, routes, and targets (and carries!) in Week 13. News broke on Monday that Corey Davis will undergo core muscle surgery and miss the rest of the season.
Moore was an elite prospect coming out of Ole Miss, boasting a sub-20 breakout age and one of the best production profiles in the class. The Jets were conservative with his utilization early on, splitting his snaps with Keelan Cole, but that’s a thing of the past. Moore has been an every-down player over the past month, and he’s going to step into a featured role with Davis out for the season.
Zach Wilson is the elephant in the room. He has been bad, and that’s unlikely to change. Still, Moore should be in for a robust target share as Wilson’s favorite target for the home stretch, and that alone makes him a viable fantasy option. This is also the allure of drafting rookie wideouts in fantasy: They improve as the season progresses such that they’re at their best when the games matter most.
4. Leonard Fournette leads all running backs in receptions. Ronald Jones was dealing with an illness on Sunday, but it’s still worth pointing out that Fournette played 61-of-70 snaps, running 39 routes on 51 Tom Beady dropbacks and notching 13-of-15 backfield carries. The Buccaneers passed on 75% of their plays against the Falcons – and they remain one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league – but Fournette’s newfound monopoly on backfield routes means he can be a high-end fantasy asset despite Tampa Bay’s penchant for throwing the ball.
Mind-boggling - Leonard Fournette is 1st among RBs w/ 58 rec. He's clearly one of THE top value picks of 2021.
— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) December 6, 2021
We've all hunted for Brady's next "James White" in Tampa... pic.twitter.com/A3oFokRkXp
We play a silly, silly game. Imagine saying before the season that Leonard Fournette would lead all running backs in receptions. His Week 13 market share of rushing attempts skewed high because Ronald Jones had an illness – which could also explain why the Buccaneers had such a high pass rate despite generally positive game script – but Fournette has emerged over the past month as a three-down workhorse. He has marginalized Giovani Bernard to the point where the former Bengal doesn’t even have the third-down role he held at the beginning of the season, and that vaults Fournette into the fantasy elite. He’s a locked-and-loaded RB1 down the stretch. The Bucs have two tough matchups coming up against the Bills and Saints after a Week 14 bye, but that’s less of a concern because Fournette is so involved catching the ball out of the backfield.
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5. Adam Thielen suffered a high ankle sprain after only four routes in Week 13. K.J. Osborn ran 43 routes on 46 Kirk Cousins dropbacks in his absence, and Dede Westbrook got 23 routes as the new WR3. However, Justin Jefferson was the big story. The second-year stud had 14 targets on 40 team pass attempts. He set career-highs in both receptions (11) and receiving yards (182).
Jefferson isn’t going to get 14 targets every week, but he could see a truly gaudy target share with Thielen sidelined. With Cooper Kupp setting records, it seems like Jefferson’s phenomenal sophomore campaign has flown slightly under the radar. The LSU product is quietly averaging over 100 yards per game and could be a league-winner down the stretch if Thielen is out through the fantasy playoffs. Jefferson is a high-end WR1 rivaled only by Kupp, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams.
Quick Hits
This section will be used for stats I think are worth mentioning (and for which the takeaway is fairly intuitive) but aren’t important enough to write up fully. Let’s get to it:
- The Packers had a bye in Week 13, but they had a split backfield in Week 12 in Aaron Jones’ return from injury. Jones led the way with 43 snaps and 24 routes, but he only got 10 carries to A.J. Dillon’s 17. Dillon also had five targets to Jones’ one, but that’s likely more of a fluke given he ran 19 routes, five fewer than Jones. Jones could also see his workload increase now that he’s had a week off to recover fully from the injury.
- Interestingly, Tee Higgins has more targets than Ja’Marr Chase in games for which all of the Bengals top-three receivers were healthy. In those games, Higgins has a 24.9% target share, Chase 23.1%, and Tyler Boyd 16.7%.
Bengals WR target share in the 10 games all three have been healthy:
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 6, 2021
Tee Higgins 24.9%
Ja'Marr Chase 23.1%
Tyler Boyd 16.7%
- Breshad Perriman is the Buccaneers’ third wide receiver. He ran 46 routes on 51 Tom Brady dropbacks on Sunday. Tyler Johnson ran just seven.
- The Falcons are committed to Cordarrelle Patterson as their lead running back. He had 13 carries to Mike Davis’ four against the Buccaneers. However, Davis ran 27 routes vs. just 19 for Patterson (although C-Patt did have five targets). It’s good to see Patterson take on a larger early-down role, but it seems like Atlanta wants to split time, which means Davis may continue to see the majority of backfield routes.
- With David Johnson out, Royce Freeman and Jaylen Samuels combined for 32 snaps against the Colts. Rex Burkhead still paved the way with 24 snaps and eight carries, but Freeman led the running back room in routes with 13 (Burkhead had eight). Of course, none of these guys are fantasy-viable, but it’s an interesting development out of Houston.
- James Conner played 48-of-53 snaps for the Cardinals, ran 16 routes to Eno Benjamin‘s one, and got 20 carries to Benjamin’s two. He’s an RB1 as long as Chase Edmonds is out, as he holds a highly lucrative three-down role in one of the strongest offenses in the NFL (now that Kyler Murray is back).
- Alexander Mattison picked up where he left off from when Dalvin Cook missed time earlier this year. Mattison got 22 carries – similar rushing volume to when Cook missed time in previous seasons – but the real story is his 29 routes on 46 Minnesota dropbacks. Once a two-down grinder who ceded receiving work to complementary backs when Cook was out in years prior, the Vikings have trusted Mattison with a workhorse role in 2021. He’s an RB1 as long as Dalvin is out.
- Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman both had four targets, but Johnson had 21 routes to Coleman’s eight. Don’t be fooled by the raw target numbers – Johnson remains the passing-down back with Coleman as the between-the-tackles guy. That should be the case until Michael Carter is healthy.
- James O’Shaughnessy only had two catches, but he ran 23 routes on 33 dropbacks and recorded six targets. Dan Arnold was getting peppered with looks before suffering a season-ending injury, and O’Shaughnessy now inherits that role. He’s a low-end TE1.
- Odell Beckham only ran 22 routes on 39 Rams dropbacks in Week 13. Van Jefferson ran 35. Beckham’s role could increase, but that’s worth keeping an eye on.
- With J.D. McKissic out, Antonio Gibson ran 22 routes on 33 Washington dropbacks. There were whispers that the Football Team could use Wendell Smallwood in the McKissic role, but he only ran three routes (and Jaret Patterson ran two).
- Kenyan Drake is out for the year. Jalen Richard was out due to COVID-19 protocols. That allowed Josh Jacobs to run 33 routes on 42 dropbacks in addition to his usual solid rushing workload. It’s worth keeping an eye on how much Richard cuts in Jacobs’ routes once he’s back, but the third-year Alabama product could be in for an uncharacteristically large receiving role down the stretch.
- The Patriots attempted three passes on Monday night. I know you know this. But I’d be remiss if I didn’t bring it up here because it’s so ridiculous.
- Devonta Freeman got 14 carries. Latavius Murray had two. Freeman ran 26 routes, and Murray ran 10. The Ravens moved away from a two-man backfield and more toward Freeman as their preferred running back in Week 13. He’ll be fantasy-viable if that holds.
Thanks for reading the Week 13 edition of Strength in Numbers! Check back next Tuesday for the Week 14 version.
