Chiefs at Saints
This Sunday’s headline game features the #1 most pass heavy team vs the #32 most run heavy team.
Saints have the second most efficient rushing offense in the NFL and run the ball more often than any other team.
The return of QB Drew Brees to the lineup shouldn’t change that. This offense was built around the run before he was injured and absolutely will feature plenty of running with his return for two reasons.
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First, to limit the number of hits Drew Brees will take, and second, because the weakness of the Chiefs Defense is the run game, where they rank 30th despite facing the NFL’s easiest schedule of run offenses.
Add to that the late announcement of the absence of stud WR Michael Thomas for this game, and we should anticipate plenty of running from the Saints.
And whether up or down, early or late, there won’t be a reason for the Saints to become one-dimentional toward the pass. That is because, since the Chiefs bye week, second half runs when opponents are trailing are gaining 55% success with +0.09 EPA and 4.6 YPC.
I expect the Saints to have plenty of success on the ground.
But they can’t just run the ball, they will have to drop Drew Brees back to pass. And that will result in an interesting matchup.
The Chiefs Defense plays man coverage 12% more than average. Look at Brees splits vs man coverage since week 7:
Vs zone: +0.23 EPA, 7.0 YPA, 58% success
Vs man: -0.06 EPA, 6.6 YPA, 50% success
Over the entire season, his man coverage numbers improve, to +0.12 EPA and 53% success, but he still averages only 6.6 YPA on passes, a full yard less than when facing zone coverage.
Meanwhile, check out Taysom Hill’s numbers this season:
Vs zone: +0.03 EPA, 7.8 YPA, 54% success
Vs man: +0.16 EPA, 7.2 YPA, 58% success
Things on the other side of the ball are not rosy from a health perspective.
Right tackle Mike Remmers (back/neck) didn’t practice at all this week and is listed as doubtful. Remmers started the last seven games at right tackle for the injured Mitchell Schwartz. So they are now down two RTs. Meanwhile, LT Eric Fisher hurt his back and missed two practices, but was able to get in a full session on Friday and is questionable.
Dealing with backup tackles at both spots on the line isn’t going to be fun for Patrick Mahomes. And he’s going up against a good Saints Defense.
But how good are they?
They started the season allowing 30 points/game to the Chargers with a rookie QB, plus the Lions, Raiders, Packers and Bucs.
Since that time, they’re allowing only 14 points/game, a huge improvement.
But look who they played since then:
Teddy Bridgewater
Nick Foles
Nick Mullens
Kendall Hinton
Jalen Hurts
Matt Ryan x2 (Julio out for one of these games)
Tom Brady
Only two of those QBs were full-season NFL starters last year (Tom Brady and Matt Ryan).
Notable is the pass heavy Chiefs will take on a Saints Defense that plays man coverage 24% more than average. Mahomes splits since week 7:
Vs zone: +0.28 EPA, 8.7 YPA, 57% success
Vs man: +0.33 EPA, 10.0 YPA, 59% success
This line opened at 3.5 and some savvy syndicate groups with great intel nabbed the Saints, knowing that Brees would play this game.
Since then, the line dropped down to soft 3 at many spots. I expect to see a lot of even action on this game, but the fact that Michael Thomas has been announced out may swing some additional public money between now and kickoff onto the Chiefs.
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
The story of this game when the Cardinal have the ball is the return to health of Kyler Murray coupled with the injured nature of the Eagles secondary.
Kyler Murray finally took off and ran the ball often against the Giants last week, indicating he may be recovered from his shoulder injury that plagued him for a few games.
And the Eagles have struggled to stop opposing QB rush yardage. They’ve done a great job slowing opponent RBs down, but have struggled when those opponents have QBs that take off on the ground.
Meanwhile, the Eagles are dealing with multiple injuries to starters in their secondary.
S Rodney McCloud tore his ACL last week and CB Avontae Maddox is out to a multi-week knee injury.
Additionally, CB Darius Slay has a concussion and may be out but was able to practice on a limited basis which would indicate he’s over the concussion.
The Cardinals love to use 11 personnel, and the Eagles pass defense has struggled against 11 personnel passes on early downs early in the game.
And now they are without multiple starters in the secondary.
The story when the Eagles have the ball is their new QB, rookie Jalen Hurts.
From a coverage standpoint, he won’t have it easy.
Arizona plays man coverage 11% more than average. In Jalen Hurts first start last week:
Vs zone: +0.40 EPA, 10.7 YPA, 67% success
Vs man: -0.19 EPA, 2.9 YPA, 31% success
And over the course of the entire season, Hurts vs man:: -0.30 EPA, 4.0 YPA, 31% success
Last week Arizona played man at a 71% rate, NFL avg is 37%, so they are capable of ramping things up even more if the situation arises.
One positive for Hurts is Arizona’s defense has been extremely vulnerable to any pass from a set that looks like a run, or any pass that is preceded by motion or play action which makes the defense hesitate/think about what they need to do.
Vance Joseph has a major problem when playing a team like the Eagles
The Cardinals are extraordinary bad against passes from 12 personnel because heavier sets give the allure of run.
Over the last 4 games, the Cardinals pass defense by personnel grouping:
11: 6.1 YPA, 54% success, -0.02 EPA, 99 att
12: 7.8 YPA, 73% success, +0.23 EPA, 31 att
21: 5.7 YPA, 55% success, -0.20 EPA, 11 att
Over the entire season, the Cardinals pass defense by personnel grouping:
11: 6.4 YPA, 48% success, -0.06 EPA
12: 7.2 YPA, 66% success, +0.14 EPA
21: 10.2 YPA, 67 %success, +0.22 EPA
The Cardinals are the NFL’s 2nd worst pass defense against 12 personnel this season, after being the NFL’s worst pass defense vs 12 in 2019.
Historically they were better, but under Vance, they have been terrible defending 12 personnel passes.
Both the Seahawks in week 11 and the Rams in week 13 used significant amounts of 12 personnel and dominated the Cardinals Defense with it.
If the Eagles didn’t have the injuries to their secondary, I would be giving them a look at +6.5 points on the spread. This line opened at 5.5 and has increased to 6.5 in favor of the Cardinals. However, given the injuries to the secondary coupled with the question marks surround Hurts vs Cardinals man to man coverage, I’m less inclined to want to back the Eagles, but I would not be laying the number with the Cardinals.
