Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
Last week the Ravens dominated the Browns, jumping out to a 24-6 halftime lead and coasting to a 38-6 lead. It is interesting to note that game because the Browns just played on Thursday and rolled up over 30 points and over 200 rushing yards on the Bengals Defense.
Are the Ravens that good or are the Bengals that bad? I think it’s a little of both. But that should cause concern for the Texans, who were themselves dominated in week 1 against an ultra-conservative Chiefs Offense.
New Offensive coordinator Tim Kelly looked really bad after his game script ran out. Deshaun Watson was under pressure on 35% of his dropbacks in Week 1 (eighth-highest). Under pressure, he completed just 1-of-7 passes for six yards while taking four sacks. Baltimore’s pressure is likely to cause problems for Houston – when they played last year and the Ravens won 41-7, and Watson had his lowest net overall offensive output of his career.
To people that think Bill O’Brien will fix this offense with extra time, given he played last Thursday, note this: the Texans had a bye week before playing the Ravens last year and put up only 7 points, and that was with DeAndre Hopkins.
For Lamar Jackson, it should be a nice afternoon against a Texans Defense that surrendered 5.6 YPC and a 62% success rate on the ground on early down runs in the first half last week. The Chiefs didn’t even throw the ball often nor go downfield much. Rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 25 of the team’s total 34 rushing attempts and he averaged 5.5 YPC and scored a TD while registering 4 explosive gains. Patrick Mahomes didn’t run the ball once. We know the Ravens rushing attack is far more dynamic, and Baltimore may not be as reluctant to throw the ball as the Chiefs were last week.
I’m worried for the Texans here on both sides of the ball, but the Texans are really with their backs up against the wall. A loss here with a trip to Pittsburgh on deck could start the Texans off in a big hole. We shouldn’t read too much into the Texans week 1 loss, and a positive was how they were able to run the ball, with David Johnson averaging 7.0 YPC and a 73% success rate against the Chiefs. But we saw how the Ravens shut down the Browns rushing attack that looked magical on Thursday night, and they very well could shut down Johnson here as well. Money has shown on the under thus far, and this could be the case where the Ravens would need to do most of the lifting to send this game over a 50-point total. The Texans seem like the side sharp groups would be interested in grabbing but I’m not running to join them.
Washington Football Team at Arizona Cardinals
While Washington pulled off the big win in week 1, as the write-up on the Eagles shares, there was a lot of extenuating circumstances which played a role in that win. Washington’s first 6 drives were 5 punts and a missed FG. They scored on 5 drives. All 5 started in Eagles territory, and came off of two interceptions, two came off turnovers by down (failed 4th down conversions) and one came off of a punt that gave Washington starting position at the Eagles 48 yard line.
[[ad:athena]]
Washington could not run the ball at all. Yet they were the 5th most run-heavy team in the league last week. They gained a total of 80 rushing yards on 36 offensive plays, for 2.2 YPC with a 36% success rate. Yet they still ran the ball 51% of the time.
On early downs in the first half, Washington had a 57% run rate. That was the third most run-heavy team in the NFL. Yet these runs gained just 38% success with 3.1 YPC. For some context:
The #1 most run heavy team was 61% run (New England) and recorded 64% success with 4.7 YPC.
The #2 most run heavy team was 60% run (Minnesota) and recorded 56% success with 5.9 YPC.
Those teams were actually successful and ran often, but Washington was not successful and ran often. Washington averaged a league-low 3.4 yards per play in Week 1.
However, going for Washington is a great defensive line which clearly caused problems for the Eagles offensive line. Yes, there were injuries for the Eagles, but it was an absolute dominating performance.
Arizona’s offense was similarly unimpressive, although they earned a win in part due to a strong defensive performance. On early downs, Arizona was 51% sun, and runs gained 4.7 YPC with a 57% success rate. More surprising, however, was that they averaged just 4.7 YPA when passing and recorded only a 32% success rate. Yes, the 49ers have a good defense, but they were down players and starting a few new pieces as compared to 2019. Murray tossed 0 explosive passes on early downs, threw 1 interception and was sacked twice.
While this game was bet toward the over, each of these offenses is going to have to kick into a gear they didn’t reach last week for them to hit that number of 47 points, unless short fields or defensive scores are involved.
Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts
Everyone is running to sell the Indianapolis Colts and I will not be one of them. Nor will I write off Philip Rivers. In his first season with an entirely new team, not a single other QB passed for more than Rivers’ 363 yards.
And these weren’t throwaway, meaningless yards either. These were early downs in the first three quarters. The Colts passed on 61% of such plays. Frank Reich implicitly trusts Philip Rivers. And on these throws, he averaged a WELL ABOVE average 60% success rate and a WELL ABOVE average 8.5 YPA.
Entering the game last week, questions surrounded the Packers offensive line. And yet Aaron Rodgers was pressured on only 15.9% of his drop backs, third fewest in the NFL.
Another question surrounded the Packers WR corps outside of Davante Adams. And yet look at these results from the Vikings secondary play:
The CB that played the most for the Vikings last week was Cam Dantzler. He allowed 7/7, 11.6 YPA and a TD when targeted with a 154.5 passer rating. Guess what? Dantzler will miss this game due to injury.
The CB with the second most snaps was Holton Hill, who allowed 12.4 YPA and a TD on 7/11 targets and a 118.4 rating.
The CB with the third most snaps was Mike Hughes. He allowed 6/6 for 13.5 YPA, 1 TD and a 158.3 passer rating.
There is no doubt that TY Hilton is no Davante Adams. And Philip Rivers is no Aaron Rodgers. But this Colts squad has a better offensive line and better receiving depth. The cover on this game hinges on the Colts Defense. It must step up. It cannot allow the efficiency to the Vikings passing game it allowed to Gardner Minshew last week. If their defense steps up, the Colts should be able to cover the 3 point line largely because of their offense.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
The direction I looked at here first was the over. The line was 47.5 and I thought it was too low. In part, this is due to the cluster injuries in the Lions secondary. It’s yet to be determined who will be up, but the Lions lost another cornerback yesterday, with Darryl Roberts listed as out. Desmond Trufant was already not practicing after leaving the game last week, and slot CB Justin Coleman went to IR. To clarify – Coleman was a starter, as was Trufant. Roberts came in to fill the void and played 28 snaps, and now he wasn’t practicing.
The Lions may be getting rookie Jeff Okudah back, making his NFL debut. But that’s an extremely tall order against Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers. And there is literally nothing surrounding him from a CB perspective.
Having watched the game last week, I absolutely believed the Bears win that game far more easily if Mitchell Trubisky was accurate early on. He had guys open at times but missed them. Part of it was his depth of target. Let’s compare Trubisky against this Lions Defense with Aaron Rodgers in week 1, who will be facing this Lions Defense this week.
Both Mitchell Trubisky and Aaron Rodgers had massively high depth of targets.
Trubisky was at 10.5 air yards, 5th highest
Rodgers was at 9.6 air yards, 6th highest
With deep targets, you expect worse completions, and that was true:
Trubisky had an expected completion of 56%, second worst
Rodgers had an expected completion of 59%, third worst
But here’s the difference:
Trubisky completed 56% of them, 0% above expectation
Rodgers completed 73% of them, 14% above expectation (4th best in the NFL)
I see the Packers Offense getting out early, as they did often with Matt LaFleur last year, and the Lions battling them score for score to keep this game within reach. The end result will be an exciting back and forth game that should go over this total.
