Analyzing the 2019 role of Marcus Mariota, of all people, could be instructive in understanding how the Steelers might deploy Justin Fields in 2024.
Before you click out of this article and prepare a scathing indictment of my football knowing for publication on the X platform, consider this: Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, way back in 2019 as Titans OC, had a modest package of plays for the mobile Mariota.
After losing his starting gig to Ryan Tannehill, the dual-threat Mariota saw sparse usage in specialty offensive packages near the end zone, mostly functioning as a handoff machine but occasionally throwing a pass.
Fields, I think, will end up in an expanded Mariota role if the Steelers are determined to install Russell Wilson as the team’s unquestioned Week 1 starter, as various reports indicate. Smith and the Steelers could use Wilson — who sported the NFL’s third highest completion rate over expected in 2023 — as their between-the-20s game manager and Fields as their unstoppable red zone signal caller. Combine his quickness and tackle-breaking ability with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren and Art Smith is cooking with gas.
As insulting as it sounds for a quarterback of Fields’ pedigree, the Steelers could turn him into a souped-up version of Taysom Hill.
Fields is too good a runner to keep on the sideline, wandering the sideline while holding a clipboard. Last year he was second (behind Josh Dobbs) among all QBs in rush yards after contact per attempt, with 26 rushes of more than ten yards. Only Lamar Jackson (29) had more. Fields ranked second — again behind Lamar — in Pro Football Focus’ elusive rating in 2023. His 163 yards on explosive runs (rushes of at least 15 yards) was second to Dobbs.
A rushing role in scoring range wouldn’t be a new one for Fields. Just last year he accounted for nearly 30 percent of Chicago’s inside-the-five rushing attempts, the fourth highest rate among QBs. He converted those opportunities into five touchdowns. Fields had 31 percent of the Bears’ inside-the-20 rushing attempts, leading all quarterbacks not named Jalen Hurts.
Your reaction to the charge that Fields won’t waste away on the Pittsburgh sideline is visceral: That’s exactly what he’ll do because Arthur Smith is a backward play caller who refuses to use his most dangerous, productive offensive weapons. You think this because of a dangerous concoction of recency bias and trauma over how Smith used Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson in the Atlanta offense.
But before Arty was triggering points-enjoying critics and analytics nerds and fantasy managers by basing the entire Falcons offense around Tyler Allgeier and Jonnu Smith, he was dead set on feeding touches to his best players.
Smith in 2019 fed Derrick Henry to the tune of 21.5 touches per game. A.J. Brown in his rookie campaign has a solid 20 percent target share. Late in the season, as the Titans pushed for AFC playoff seeding, the team’s rushing and target distribution narrowed even further. Before his catastrophic two seasons in Atlanta, Smith appeared to know where his proverbial bread was proverbially buttered.
And it paid dividends in the red zone: Smith’s Titans offense was first in red zone touchdown scoring rate in both 2019 (75 percent) and 2020 (75.6 percent) — rates that rank in the top-five in red zone TD rate since 2000. The Smith-led Titans managed a touchdown on 94.3 percent of their goal-to-go plays in 2019 and 88 percent in 2020.
The Titans over the 2019 and 2020 seasons, as you might imagine, were massive run heavy in all situations, including in the red and green zones. This carried over to the 2023 Falcons, who were 15.6 percent below their expected pass rate in the red zone, running the ball on 59 percent of their inside-the-20 snaps. Only the Bears had a lower red zone PROE.
Smith’s run-heavy carnival coming to Pittsburgh should open up snaps and, yes, rushes for the dual-threat Fields even if Russell Wilson isn’t phased out of the offense.
Fields The Passer Remains Lacking
I’m fairly certain NFL teams knew Fields did not take a leap as a passer in 2023. This is not the profile of a steadily-improving thrower of the football.
For the sake of context: Fields’ career-best 73 percent on-target rate in 2023 ranked 28th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks. It was slightly worse than Sam Howell and Bryce Young. Fields’ rate of bad throws was the sixth lowest among those 33 QBs. None of it is good.
There’s also the nagging issue of Fields’ pressure to sack rate, which in 2023 remained at an elevated 19.3 percent, per PFF. That was the 13th highest rate of sacks per pressure among 35 qualifying quarterbacks — an improvement over his astronomical 26.7 percent pressure to sack rate from 2022, but still a concern, especially compared to third-stringer Tyler Bagent’s glistening pressure to sack rate behind the exact same offense line, as Rotoworld’s Zach Krueger recently posted on X.
Without sudden improvement by Fields the passer, I think it’s a long shot he’ll unseat Russell Wilson as Pittsburgh’s starter largely because Russ is such a good fit for what Art Smith wants to do on offense. That doesn’t mean Fields will waste away in 2024. He will be utilized, one way or another.