Week 11 Expected Points: Garrett Wilson Thriving as a Target Hog

Earlier this week, I published my Week 10 Snap Report, highlighting some running backs who saw encouraging snap shares in their season-openers. This expected points column will work somewhat in conjunction with my weekly snap reports.

For those unfamiliar, expected points apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where they were on the field when they received said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected points based on what they do with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected.

In hopes of pinpointing some deeper plays to make on a week-to-week basis, I’ll utilize what we’ve seen in expected points to highlight some players who could be slept on heading into upcoming weeks.

Under each position, I will also provide tables of expected fantasy points from the previous week, sorted by the most to the fewest expected fantasy points.

Week 11 byes: ATL, IND, NE, NO

NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.

Running Backs

Week 10 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Christian McCaffrey	SF	27.9	-7.7	20.2
Austin Ekeler	LAC	27.4	-5.9	21.5
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	21.9	4.3	26.2
Javonte Williams	DEN	19.7	1.3	21.0
Devin Singletary	HOU	18.8	4.3	23.1
Josh Jacobs	LV	16.2	-1.5	14.7
Aaron Jones	GB	16.1	-6.7	9.4
Alvin Kamara	NO	16	2.5	18.5
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	16	-2.8	13.2
Jonathan Taylor	IND	15.9	-1.4	14.5
Bijan Robinson	ATL	15.5	2.1	17.6
Najee Harris	PIT	15	3.6	18.6
D’Onta Foreman	CHI	14.8	2.4	17.2
Rachaad White	TB	14.7	3.1	17.8
Jaylen Warren	PIT	14.2	4.8	19.0
Kenneth Walker III	SEA	13	6.7	19.7
Brian Robinson Jr	WAS	12.8	14.9	27.7
Joe Mixon	CIN	11.7	0.8	12.5
Tony Pollard	DAL	11.6	-6.1	5.5
David Montgomery	DET	11.5	6.1	17.6
Roschon Johnson	CHI	11.2	-4	7.2
Saquon Barkley	NYG	11.2	-4.1	7.1
Breece Hall	NYJ	10.7	-0.2	10.5
Jerome Ford	CLE	10.5	1.4	11.9
Gus Edwards	BAL	10.4	-0.6	9.8
James Conner	ARI	10.4	-1.1	9.3
Ezekiel Elliott	NE	10	0.8	10.8
Antonio Gibson	WAS	9.9	6.6	16.5
Latavius Murray	BUF	9.6	5.3	14.9
Travis Etienne	JAC	9.6	-3.2	6.4
Tyjae Spears	TEN	9.5	0.5	10.0
Ty Chandler	MIN	9.4	1.1	10.5
James Cook	BUF	9.2	4.8	14.0
Zach Charbonnet	SEA	9.1	1.1	10.2
AJ Dillon	GB	9	0.1	9.1
Rico Dowdle	DAL	8.6	5.3	13.9

David Montgomery (DET, 11.5 Expected Points)

This is more of an endorsement of Jahmyr Gibbs than it is of David Montgomery after Montgomery’s managers were put on notice in Week 10.

Like it or not, the 33 percent opportunity share Montgomery enjoyed through the first nine weeks of the season was flipped on its head in Week 10. Instead, rookie Jahmyr Gibbs saw a 30 percent opportunity in Sunday’s win over the Chargers, while Montgomery managed a 19 percent opportunity share.

Montgomery’s 11.5 expected points ranked as the 20th-highest total among running backs on the week, but Montgomery still turned in an RB12 finish thanks to a 75-yard touchdown that all but saved a lousy fantasy day.

It’s only a one-week sample, meaning it’s too early to say this will be the status quo moving forward, but the Lions moving Montgomery back into the RB1 role feels like they’re selling themselves short on offensive upside.

When operating as the lead back in Weeks 8 and 9, Gibbs averaged 5.8 YPC and was third in YCO/ATT (3.92.) Among qualified running backs (min. 20 touches), he was fifth in yards from scrimmage (189), second in FPOE (10.4), and third in yards per touch (6.1).

How the Lions deploy their two backs in Week 11 against the Bears will be something to monitor, but Montgomery could be projecting as more of an RB2 if Gibbs remains locked in as the lead back.

Fortunately, for fantasy managers, both look like fringe RB1 plays against the Bears.

Antonio Gibson (WSH, 9.9 Expected Points)

Because we can never have nice things, playing Antonio Gibson comes with a certain amount of risk, as he’s yet to practice this week with a toe injury. Fantasy managers looking to play him will want to ensure he’s active come game day if he’s not ruled out before then, but we’re trying to play the deep cuts here.

With high-end PPR options like Jonathan Taylor, Alvin Kamara, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Bijan Robinson on bye, Gibson (if active) makes for an excellent alternate option for fantasy managers.

Earlier this week, on my various social media accounts, I mentioned the decline in sacks Sam Howell has seen in recent weeks, and the increased running back targets the Commanders have seen as a result.

Sam Howell was taking 5.7 sacks per game Weeks 1-7. He's averaging just 2.3 sacks per game Weeks 8-10.

Coincidentally (definitely not), his RB targets/gm have nearly doubled as the sacks decrease.

Gibson TGTs over that span:

Week 8: 5
Week 9: 5
Week 10: 6 pic.twitter.com/X7AR3xLCpt

— Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB) November 14, 2023

During those three weeks, Gibson ranks as the RB31 in expected fantasy points (26.8) and has turned in two top-24 PPR finishes in each of his last two games. His 11.5 FPOE during those games ranks fifth-most in the league, while teammate Brian Robinson’s 19.0 FPOE in the same span is third-most.

Commanders running backs have been running wildly hot as of late. If Gibson cannot go, Brian Robinson’s already high floor heading into Week 11 against the Giants will receive a significant boost. But if Gibson can suit up, fantasy managers should have a high-end RB3 to help them through a tough week of byes at the position.

Wide Receivers

Week 10 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	26.6	12.9	39.5
Tank Dell	HOU	24.7	-5.8	18.9
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	23	-4.7	18.3
Keenan Allen	LAC	21.8	18.7	40.5
Courtland Sutton	DEN	20.3	-1	19.3
Davante Adams	LV	19.9	-5.3	14.6
Christian Kirk	JAC	19.8	-3.4	16.4
DK Metcalf	SEA	19.4	-2.6	16.8
Tyler Boyd	CIN	19.2	0.5	19.7
Michael Pittman Jr	IND	18.7	-2.3	16.4
Tyler Lockett	SEA	18.6	4.6	23.2
Amon-Ra St Brown	DET	16.8	13.7	30.5
DJ Moore	CHI	16.5	-5.6	10.9
Brandin Cooks	DAL	16.3	16	32.3
Mike Evans	TB	16.1	10.2	26.3
Rashid Shaheed	NO	16	-8.6	7.4
Adam Thielen	CAR	15.7	-5.5	10.2
Chris Olave	NO	14.7	6.7	21.4
Demario Douglas	NE	14.6	-0.2	14.4
DeAndre Hopkins	TEN	13.9	-8.2	5.7
Jordan Addison	MIN	12.9	-2	10.9
Amari Cooper	CLE	12.6	3.2	15.8
Terry McLaurin	WAS	12.4	-5.1	7.3
Noah Brown	HOU	12.1	12.1	24.2
Rondale Moore	ARI	12	-2.7	9.3
Christian Watson	GB	11.8	-7.5	4.3
Elijah Moore	CLE	11.3	4.1	15.4
Jonathan Mingo	CAR	10.9	-5.9	5.0
Sterling Shepard	NYG	10.7	-3.5	7.2
Gabe Davis	BUF	10.2	-0.6	9.6
Jalen Guyton	LAC	10.2	3.9	14.1
Michael Wilson	ARI	9.8	-3.4	6.4
Chris Godwin	TB	9.6	-0.2	9.4
Curtis Samuel	WAS	9.3	-6.7	2.6
Zay Flowers	BAL	9.3	3	12.3
Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	9	14.4	23.4

Garrett Wilson (NYJ, 23.0 Expected Points)

For the rest of our lives, we will think about what might have been for Garrett Wilson if not for Aaron Rodgers’ Achilles injury. Entering his second season, the sky was the limit for Wilson, who was coming off a rookie campaign in which he went for 83-1103-4 on his way to being named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Everything was going to align for Wilson in 2023. With Rodgers in town, he was going to be a smash at ADP, and fantasy managers who took the plunge were set to reap the benefits by season’s end.

Then Rodgers went down, and all hope was lost — or so we thought.

To be clear, things haven’t been great for Wilson. Another year of catching passes from Zach Wilson has led to a WR19 start through the first 10 weeks (14.6 points per game), but things could be much worse. I stubbornly sat Wilson on several Zero RB rosters for weeks after Rodgers went down until I realized the Jets were going to make this thing happen one way or another.

Currently the WR7 in expected fantasy points (155.6), poor target quality has resulted in Wilson ranking 216th in FPOE (-23.8), but it doesn’t matter. Sure, frustrating weeks will happen, but Wilson has finished as a top-24 PPR receiver in six of nine games and has scored 14.4 fantasy points or more in seven of those games. Wilson has been fed targets at an elite rate. His 33 percent target share is tied with Tyreek Hill for the highest target share at the position, and his 95 targets are good for seventh most.

Still on pace to outperform last year’s rookie numbers, Wilson has a solid matchup in Week 11 against a Bills defense marred by injuries. They’ve also allowed the 14th most fantasy points per game (33.7) to receivers over the last five weeks.

I hate the prospect of Garrett Wilson being forced to catch passes from Zach Wilson for another eight weeks, but I love the volume he’s seeing. With no receiver of note to steal targets from Wilson, he feels like a near must-star every week despite the horrid quarterback play he’s forced to endure.

NOTE: Garrett Wilson is listed as questionable for Week 11’s matchup against the Buffalo Bills.

Jalen Guyton (LAC, 10.2 Expected Points)

Things got interesting for fifth-year receiver Jalen Guyton in Week 10 against the Lions. The former UDFA, who boasts elite size coupled with 4.39 speed, did something he’s rarely done in his NFL career — he played primarily from the slot.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Guyton is a freak of an athlete. With a 3.2 percent slot rate in college dating back to his days at North Texas, the lanky speedster was immediately typecast as a one-trick deep threat at the pro level who earned his NFL checks by running wind sprints for 60 minutes.

This rarely resulted in fantasy success, as Guyton averaged 5.3 fantasy points per game through his first four years in the league and was targeted on just 10 percent of his routes run. In his first game back, Guyton was targeted just twice on 27 routes. But in Week 10 against the Lions, he was targeted on six of his 35 routes (0.171 TPRR) and turned those targets into four receptions for 41 yards and a touchdown.

Guyton saw an unprecedented 66.7 percent slot rate in last week’s contest against the Lions. While we can’t ignore Keenan Allen’s team-high 62.3 percent slot rate on the season, Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has proven to be a versatile play-caller and schemer with regard to his receiver alignments. As we saw last week, a world can exist where both players are used interchangeably in the slot.

While it’s only a two-game sample, Guyton has seen only one target of 20-plus yards downfield, while six of his targets have come in the short to intermediate range. After sitting out the first eight weeks of the season, Guyton joins a Chargers offense that boasts the ninth-highest early down pass rate (57.6 percent) and the 10th-highest pass rate over expected (1.3 percent). They also have 267 dropbacks in 11 personnel (ranked 14th) and are targeting the slot 11.2 times per game (11th).

All of this is to say that what we saw from Guyton in Week 10 could grow into a more fantasy-friendly role relatively quickly. The Chargers get a challenging matchup against the Packers this week, as the Pack have allowed only 27.7 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers in their last five games. Teams haven’t been overly aggressive with targeting the Packers in the slot, as they’ve faced the fourth-fewest slot targets (71) of any defense in the league.

If you aren’t desperate enough to play Guyton, he’s at least an intriguing stash on an offense that’s lacking a legitimate WR2 with Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer both sidelined.

Kyle Philips (TEN, 8.3 Expected Points)

Titans second-year slot receiver Kyle Philips missed the first four weeks of the season with a knee injury but has slowly worked his way back into a role over the last two weeks.

Never a team to pass more than they have to, the Titans rank 19th in the league in early down pass rate (50.7 percent) and have a 58 percent pass rate in neutral game scripts, ranking nearly league average.

Operating primarily as the Titans’ slot receiver (77.7 percent slot rate), Philips doesn’t play a full complement of snaps, but he’s been one of Will Levis’ preferred targets when on the field. In Levis’ three starts, Philips has been targeted on 23.2 percent of his routes, ranking 20th amongst 70 qualified receivers (min. 10 targets). His 2.73 yards per route run is seventh best among said group.

It’s not easy to produce as a wide receiver in Tennessee, but Philips has made the most of his 13 targets from Levis, turning them into 10 receptions for 153 scoreless yards (15.3 YPR). Facing a Jaguars defense in Week 11 that’s allowing 6.8 receptions per game and 70.8 yards per game in the slot could present an interesting opportunity for fantasy managers in deeper leagues in need of help at their WR4/WR5 spot.

Titans receivers often feel risky, but Levis tapping into Philips at a high rate gives me some hope.

Tight Ends

Week 10 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
TJ Hockenson	MIN	25.6	4.8	30.4
Jake Ferguson	DAL	16.8	-4.2	12.6
David Njoku	CLE	15.4	-3.6	11.8
Trey McBride	ARI	12.9	8.2	21.1
Tyler Conklin	NYJ	11.2	2.8	14.0
Cole Kmet	CHI	11	-1.4	9.6
Chigoziem Okonkwo	TEN	10.6	-4.9	5.7
Evan Engram	JAC	10.2	-5	5.2
Tanner Hudson	CIN	10.2	-0.9	9.3
Dalton Schultz	HOU	9.2	1.9	11.1
Dalton Kincaid	BUF	9.1	7	16.1
Hunter Henry	NE	8.9	-3.8	5.1
Sam LaPorta	DET	8.9	-0.9	8.0
Josh Whyle	TEN	8.6	-5	3.6
Logan Thomas	WAS	8.1	0.9	9.0
Michael Mayer	LV	7.6	3.3	10.9
Kyle Pitts	ATL	7.4	-1.4	6.0
Stone Smartt	LAC	6.9	-6.9	0.0
Taysom Hill	NO	6.3	-2	4.3
George Kittle	SF	6.1	14.5	20.6

Trey McBride (ARI, 12.9 Expected Points)

Fantasy managers counting on Trey McBride to carry them at tight end for the remainder of the season were offered a glimmer of hope in his first game with Kyler Murray. The second-year tight end, who enjoyed a 34 percent opportunity share in Weeks 8 and 9 — after Zach Ertz (quad) landed on injured reserve, saw a similarly high target share in Week 10 when Murray targeted him on 29 percent of Arizona’s pass attempts.

McBride’s 12.9 expected points on the week were good for fourth-most at the position, but perhaps more important is the clear and obvious plans the Cardinals have to continue implementing their young tight end.

Per the FantasyPoints.com Data Suite, McBride has been the first read on 38.2 percent of his team’s targets — tying with T.J. Hockenson for the highest in the league over the last three weeks. George Kittle has the second-highest first-read rate at 32.5 percent.

At this point, it’s safe to assume McBride is in the clear for the foreseeable future. His 8/131 line on a team-high nine targets gives us a sense of what we can expect for him going forward — although expectations should be kept somewhat in check.

Still, McBride is an absolute must-start whenever he’s healthy, especially in Week 11 against a Texans defense that’s given up the most points per game (20.1) to opposing tight ends over their last five games.

Tyler Conklin (NYJ, 11.2 Expected Points)

Mentioning two Jets pass-catchers in the same article feels like a disaster waiting to happen, but here we are.

As previously mentioned, Garrett Wilson is tied with Tyreek Hill for a league-best 33 percent target share. While that leaves little for the rest of the skill position players to feast on, Tyler Conklin has quietly emerged as a threat for more targets in the Jets’ offense.

Over the last three weeks, Conklin’s 16 targets are tied for third-most on the team with Breece Hall. Allen Lazard is in second with 17 targets, while Wilson’s 40 lead the pack by a wide margin.

In his last three games, Conklin has averaged 5.3 targets and has run 30 or more routes in each outing. His 32.1 expected points over that span rank as 10th most, and in Week 11, he faces a Bills defense that’s allowed 15.5 fantasy points per game to tight ends over the last five weeks — the 11th most points allowed by any defense.

On the season, Conklin has three games with five or more receptions and five games with fifty or more receiving yards. As a streaming option, he’s a “hold your nose and let it rip” kind of play, but there are far worse options out there.