Week 6 Expected Points: Backup RBs key to surviving tough bye week

Week 6 Byes: KC, LAR, MIA, MIN

Hello, and welcome to my Week 6 Expected Points article.

For those who may be new here and are curious about expected points, you should know that expected points come from the previous week’s games and are not projections. Expected points (EP) apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where a player is on the field when they receive said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected fantasy points based on what they did with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected (FPOE).

Expected points are a usage stat that can help us identify players to target in the coming weeks, which I attempt to do every week in this article.

In addition to the handful of players I write up, I provide the highest EP totals from the previous week for:

• 50 running backs
• 50 wide receivers
• 24 tight ends

With plenty of potential gems to target in Week 6, here are some guys who caught my eye.

Running Backs

Week 5 Expected Points

Player	Team	Pos	EP	FPOE	PPR
D’Andre Swift	CHI	RB	23.6	-3.6	20.0
Trey Sermon	IND	RB	22.4	-4.1	18.3
Kareem Hunt	KC	RB	18.6	0.1	18.7
Alvin Kamara	NO	RB	17	-4.4	12.6
Dare Ogunbowale	HOU	RB	16.9	-2.2	14.7
Javonte Williams	DEN	RB	16.6	-0.5	16.1
Kyren Williams	LAR	RB	16.5	1	17.5
James Cook	BUF	RB	16.1	1.8	17.9
Rico Dowdle	DAL	RB	15.6	3.8	19.4
James Conner	ARI	RB	15.3	-1.3	14.0
Eric Gray	NYG	RB	13.6	-5.2	8.4
Chase Brown	CIN	RB	13.5	2.9	16.4
Kenneth Walker III	SEA	RB	13.5	1.1	14.6
Alexander Mattison	LV	RB	13.2	-3.1	10.1
Zack Moss	CIN	RB	12.9	-4.7	8.2
Derrick Henry	BAL	RB	12.8	3.8	16.6
Travis Etienne	JAC	RB	12.6	-0.6	12.0
Josh Jacobs	GB	RB	12.4	4	16.4
Raheem Mostert	MIA	RB	12.3	-0.5	11.8
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	RB	11.6	7.6	19.2
Tyrone Tracy Jr	NYG	RB	11.5	2.5	14.0
Rachaad White	TB	RB	11.4	-1.8	9.6
Chuba Hubbard	CAR	RB	11.2	8.3	19.5
Roschon Johnson	CHI	RB	10.7	3.8	14.5
Bucky Irving	TB	RB	10.6	-3	7.6
Bijan Robinson	ATL	RB	10.2	0.5	10.7
Ty Chandler	MIN	RB	10.1	-4.2	5.9
Breece Hall	NYJ	RB	9.9	-3.2	6.7
Najee Harris	PIT	RB	9.8	-0.1	9.7
Jaleel McLaughlin	DEN	RB	9.4	2.1	11.5
Jordan Mason	SF	RB	9.4	1.4	10.8
Tank Bigsby	JAC	RB	9.4	16.5	25.9
Brian Robinson Jr	WAS	RB	9	4.8	13.8
Cam Akers	HOU	RB	8.8	3.9	12.7
Ameer Abdullah	LV	RB	8.3	5.8	14.1
Jerome Ford	CLE	RB	8.3	-0.4	7.9
Blake Corum	LAR	RB	7.6	-3.3	4.3
Tyler Allgeier	ATL	RB	7.4	-1.9	5.5
Zach Charbonnet	SEA	RB	7.4	-1.4	6.0
Tyler Goodson	IND	RB	7.1	1.6	8.7
Austin Ekeler	WAS	RB	6.5	5.2	11.7
Jaylen Wright	MIA	RB	6.5	2.1	8.6
Justice Hill	BAL	RB	6.4	-2.9	3.5
Miles Sanders	CAR	RB	5.7	-0.4	5.3
D’Onta Foreman	CLE	RB	5.4	1.6	7.0
Jeremy McNichols	WAS	RB	5.4	5	10.4
Aaron Jones	MIN	RB	5.1	1.2	6.3
Emanuel Wilson	GB	RB	4.9	-2.4	2.5
Braelon Allen	NYJ	RB	4.8	-1	3.8
D’Ernest Johnson	JAC	RB	4.4	-1.4	3.0

Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN, 9.4 Expected Points)

Things haven’t been great for Jaleel McLaughlin. In fact, things haven’t been great for Broncos running backs as a whole. Javonte Williams, the team’s leading rusher, has yet to find the end zone this season, and both Williams and McLaughlin appeared to be losing work to Tyler Badie before he exited Week 4 with a back injury.

In Week 5, Williams and McLaughlin went back to seeing the kind of work expected at the start of the season. McLaughlin handled six carries in last week’s win over the Raiders and caught 3-of-4 passes for one yard and one touchdown to give him 11.5 fantasy points for the week.

Running back targets have been there for the Broncos all season. As a team, Denver has the second-most running back targets (38) this season but ranks just 19th in receiving yards per game (30.2). McLaughlin has an inexplicable 11 receiving yards on 10 receptions — a number that feels like it’s due for some positive regression at some point.

The four targets McLaughlin saw in Week 5 were his most since Week 1. With several high-end running backs on bye this week, he saw enough opportunities in Week 5 to make him a worthwhile dart throw against the Chargers.

Tank Bigsby (9.4 Expected Points)

Tank Bigsby ran for a career-high 13-101-2 against the Colts last week and has been among the most efficient backs in the league this season on his 34 rush attempts.

Among running backs who have seen 30-plus carries this season, Bigsby ranks:

• 1st in YPC (8.0)
• 1st in YCO/ATT (6.47)
• 5th in missed tackles forced (18)
• 1st in MTF rate (52.9 percent)

On the one hand, Bigsby is due for some massive regression from these impressive totals. On the other hand, he’s been too good to sit in Week 6 against a Bears run defense that ranks 29th in YBCO/ATT (2.45) and has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate (6.3 percent). Travis Etienne is also dealing with a shoulder injury that has plagued him for the last several weeks.

Bigsby is slowly emerging as a potential hero to the Zero RB faithful, although he’s not quite there yet. With a chance to build on this season’s hot start in Week 6, I’d expect another double-digit touch outing for Bigsby against a team that should provide him plenty of running room.

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Wide Receivers

Week 5 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	38.9	-9.8	29.1
Darnell Mooney	ATL	26.2	5.3	31.5
Drake London	ATL	23.3	10.1	33.4
Tee Higgins	CIN	23	6.3	29.3
Justin Jefferson	MIN	21.2	-6	15.2
Zay Flowers	BAL	20.1	-1.1	19.0
Brandon Aiyuk	SF	19.3	3.4	22.7
Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	19.3	22	41.3
Josh Downs	IND	19.2	-3.3	15.9
Jalen Tolbert	DAL	18.4	3.3	21.7
Tutu Atwell	LAR	18.2	-5.7	12.5
Darius Slayton	NYG	17.9	8.3	26.2
Allen Lazard	NYJ	17.4	-4	13.4
Wan’Dale Robinson	NYG	15.4	0.6	16.0
Jordan Whittington	LAR	15.2	0.7	15.9
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	15	-3.6	11.4
JuJu Smith-Schuster	KC	14.8	5.2	20.0
Michael Pittman Jr	IND	14.8	-0.1	14.7
Demario Douglas	NE	14.3	-2.4	11.9
Tyreek Hill	MIA	14.3	-1.4	12.9
Ray-Ray McCloud	ATL	14.2	-1.6	12.6
Amari Cooper	CLE	14.1	-4.1	10.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	13.9	-0.8	13.1
Rashid Shaheed	NO	13.8	4.8	18.6
Xavier Worthy	KC	13.7	-1.9	11.8
Stefon Diggs	HOU	13.5	0.7	14.2
Terry McLaurin	WAS	13.5	1.9	15.4
Jakobi Meyers	LV	13.3	-0.1	13.2
DJ Moore	CHI	13.2	14.3	27.5
Jaylen Waddle	MIA	13.1	-4.5	8.6
Adonai Mitchell	IND	13	-3.6	9.4
Jordan Addison	MIN	12.9	-6.3	6.6
Mike Evans	TB	12.1	11.1	23.2
Rashod Bateman	BAL	11.9	3.9	15.8
Keon Coleman	BUF	11.6	0.3	11.9
Brian Thomas Jr	JAC	11.5	11.7	23.2
Diontae Johnson	CAR	11.1	-5.2	5.9
Jayden Reed	GB	10.8	2.9	13.7
Keenan Allen	CHI	10.7	-4.4	6.3
Tyler Lockett	SEA	10.6	0.9	11.5
Dontayvion Wicks	GB	10.5	-6.5	4.0
Rome Odunze	CHI	10.3	-1.3	9.0
Michael Wilson	ARI	10	2.8	12.8
DK Metcalf	SEA	9.9	-0.4	9.5
George Pickens	PIT	9.9	-4.3	5.6
Chris Godwin	TB	9.8	1.8	11.6
Demarcus Robinson	LAR	9.6	2.2	11.8
KaVontae Turpin	DAL	9.6	-1.2	8.4
Marvin Harrison Jr	ARI	9.6	-4	5.6
Tre Tucker	LV	8.8	-4.2	4.6

Demario Douglas (14.3 Expected Points)

After seeing just three targets through the first two games of the season, Demario Douglas has been targeted 21 times since Week 3, which includes two nine-target performances against the Jets and Dolphins.

Over that span, 18 of Douglas’ targets have come on first reads, per FantasyPoints.com, and his 24.7 percent TPRR ranks 30th amongst 50 receivers (min. 15 targets) since Week 3.

When set to a neutral game script, the Patriots are throwing at a 49 percent rate, which ranks 19th in the league. When trailing by three or more points, the Patriots throw at a 63 percent rate.

The Pats play host to a 4-1 Texans team and are currently a seven-point underdog on Bet MGM. They’re also starting Drake Maye — who should be able to extend a few more plays in the pocket — for the first time this season.

New England will have no choice but to throw if they hope to keep pace with Houston in Week 6. A strong PPR scam could be in store for Douglas in a week where guys like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and others are on bye.

Adonai Mitchell (13.0 Expected Points)

The Colts are on the verge of having to shoehorn Adonai Mitchell into the lineup for Week 6. Michael Pittman is expected to miss multiple weeks with a back injury, and Josh Downs has missed both practices to open the week with a toe injury.

Mitchell has played on just 101 offensive snaps this season and has run only 66 routes. However, Mitchell has been targeted on 20 of his 66 routes this season, good for an impressive 30.3 percent targets per route run. If a full-time player were earning a TPRR north of 30 percent, we would have no choice but to start him.

We could be a Friday injury report away from learning that Wicks will see a full workload which could make for a productive fantasy week against the Titans.

Dontayvion Wicks (10.5 Expected Points)

Dontayvion Wicks was one of the chalkiest plays of Week 5 after posting a 5-78-2 line on 13 targets in Week 4. It was only natural that he would put up a 2-20-0 stinker in a week where everybody — myself included — was obscenely high on him.

Wicks was a total dud last week, but if Christian Watson (ankle) is unable to play in Week 6 against the Cardinals, I’m more than comfortable with giving Wicks a chance to redeem himself.

In a lot of ways, Wicks did everything we hoped heading into last week’s game against the Rams. His 24 routes run, per PFF, trailed only Jayden Reed, while his seven targets led the team. According to RotoViz.com, however, amongst the 55 receivers who saw five or more targets last week, Wicks’ 57 percent catchable target rate ranked 52nd among the group.

The Cardinals have proven to be a stout pass defense this season and haven’t allowed more than 233 passing yards in a game, but the Packers continue to run a high rate of 11 personnel. Wicks hitting will be largely contingent on Watson — who has been limited in both practices — missing Sunday’s game. If Watson is out, those still holding Wicks should fire him up as a WR3 who could easily out-play his projections.

Tight Ends

Week 5 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
George Kittle	SF	28.1	-7.7	20.4
Colby Parkinson	LAR	20.8	-8.6	12.2
Brock Bowers	LV	19.3	4.4	23.7
Travis Kelce	KC	18.7	-2.7	16.0
Zach Ertz	WAS	16.2	-13.2	3.0
Tyler Conklin	NYJ	14.8	-3.3	11.5
Trey McBride	ARI	14.2	-2.9	11.3
Kyle Pitts	ATL	12.1	3.7	15.8
Jordan Akins	CLE	11.1	0.1	11.2
Jake Ferguson	DAL	11	2	13
Jonnu Smith	MIA	11	0.1	11.1
Dalton Schultz	HOU	10.6	-3.2	7.4
Tucker Kraft	GB	10.1	14.7	24.8
Mark Andrews	BAL	9.9	-0.4	9.5
Isaiah Likely	BAL	8.9	7.4	16.3
Ja’Tavion Sanders	CAR	8.6	-4.3	4.3
Mo Alie-Cox	IND	8.5	3.2	11.7
Charlie Kolar	BAL	8.4	7.2	15.6
Dalton Kincaid	BUF	8.1	-2.7	5.4
Brenton Strange	JAC	8	4.4	12.4
Theo Johnson	NYG	8	1.8	9.8
Juwan Johnson	NO	7.9	0.2	8.1
Hunter Henry	NE	7.3	-2.1	5.2
Pat Freiermuth	PIT	7.3	3.9	11.2

Dalton Schultz (HOU, 10.6 Expected Points)

Dalton Schultz had a season-high seven targets in the Texans’ Week 5 win over the Bills. It’s probably no coincidence that this came in a game where Nico Collins exited in the first quarter with a hamstring injury.

In his first season with the Texans, Schultz totaled 59 receptions for 635 yards and five touchdowns on 88 targets. He finished as the TE11 in fantasy points per game (10.2) and was the TE12 in total expected fantasy points (142.9).

Currently rostered in just 66 percent of fantasy leagues on Sleeper, Schultz gets a Patriots defense that has allowed double-digit fantasy points to Tyler Conklin (14.3), George Kittle (14.5), and Jonnu Smith (11.1) over the last three weeks. With Collins now on injured reserve, Schultz could make for a valuable streaming option for anybody in need of help at the position this week.

NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.