After a great showing at the Old Course at St. Andrew’s, the PGA Tour heads to Blaine, ME, for the fourth annual 3M Open. The tournament, unfortunately, bears the brunt of the official close to golf’s major season. With just three golfers in the top 25 set to tee off at TPC Twin Cities, the tournament feels more wide open than the others in the past few weeks. TPC Twin Cities is a course that has seen golfers go low. It’s often bested by great ball strikers and accurate drivers off the tee. It’s important for the golfers to hit greens in regulation here to give themselves a chance at as many birdies as possible. If the last four instances of this tournament tell us anything, golfers should be able to get birdies in bunches.
This week we try and tackle the perfect 6/6 lineup. A bit of wind in the forecast on Thursday morning gives the AM/PM wave a slight weather advantage. Fortunately, many golfers I intended to roster were lucky to be slotted in the AM/PM wave.
This week’s highest-priced golfer on DraftKing’s DFS is Tony Finau at $10,500. It could undoubtedly be Finau’s week to win; it’s just hard for me to trust the highest owned and highest priced golfer. Especially a guy who has just two PGA Tour wins under his belt.
Favorites:
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,300): With the uncertainty of Matsuyama’s PGA Tour status, this play scares me. I faded him last week due to the ongoing LIV Golf speculations. I imagined he would go out, be unmotivated and put up a dud. A 68th finish was exactly what I expected. Given the drastic change in difficulty level in TPC Twin Cities and St. Andrew’s, I expect him to put on a show this week regardless of his LIV Status. If you plan on rostering Matsuyama, set an alarm for 7:00 a.m. ET to check his playing status.
From a DFS perspective taking the risk on him is worth it. You will have leverage over the other two golfers in the $10,000 range. Surprisingly, Matsuyama is the top golfer on my primary model and ninth in my secondary model. This makes me think there are multiple realistic pathways for him to succeed at this course. He hasn’t teed it up here since 2019, but that was a year where he finished T7.
Optimal Lineup (Via NBC Sports EDGE+ DFS Tools):
Maverick McNealy ($9,300)
Cameron Tringale ($8,800)
J.T. Poston ($8,500)
Cameron Champ ($7,800)
Callum Tarren ($7,000)
Ryan Armour ($6,900)
Cameron Davis ($8,900): As golf DFS “experts,” our favorite thing is to try and play weatherman. Often, we get so focused on weather advantages we fail to realize that there are guys who excel in moderately windy conditions. Davis is one of those golfers. The Australian is used to the windy conditions back in Sydney.
Regardless of the weather, I like Davis this week. In my primary model, he’s third. Much of that has to do with him being 15th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 13th in Driving Distance, and sixth in Birdie or Better Gained. His form is fair. He has a few top 10 finishes in the back couple of months. Most notably, his 8th place finish at the John Deere. He has the tools to content this week.
Tread Lightly:
Sungjae Im ($10,000): Since Im’s June 24th admission of dealing with back pain, he’s been a difficult golfer to gauge. While he’s said he’s healthy, and his body just needed rest, it hasn’t been the case. Since the middle of June, when he started dealing with the back pain, he’s had two missed cuts and an 81st at the Open. His game hasn’t been there. A guy who is generally dialed in with his irons hasn’t been sharp—costing him strokes and better finishes. I’m never big on backing guys dealing with back injuries.
Stewart Cink ($7,300): This might be the biggest question mark of the week. He projects highly because he does so many things right. He has about an average length off the tee, he’s decent on approach, he is second in BoB Gained, and 13th in GIR. The problem I have with Cink is his missed cut here last year. He is also coming off a missed cut at the Open. We can string along the jet lag narrative for anyone who played the open, but it certainly pertains to the 49-year-old Cink. He’s probably just a pass for me.
Sleepers:
Tyler Duncan ($7,100): Duncan is the recipient of a great tee time. His 8:45 a.m. tee time should allow him to finish before the wind becomes too strong. While he’s not overly long off the tee, he’s hitting fairways at an above-average clip. He’s seventh in SG: APP, gaining +0.6 strokes per round. With a few top 20 finishes on the season, he’s a good plug-and-play option.
Joohyung Kim ($7,300): How can you possibly not roster someone named after Thomas the Tank Engine? Kim is quickly becoming a PGA Tour favorite and will soon have ownership projections that exceed his price. There’s a lot to like about Kim’s game. He’s accurate off the tee and is becoming a good ball striker. He’s learning to handle the ins and outs of the touring professional life, but he’s got the right attitude. After a 23rd at the U.S. Open, a 3rd at the Scottish Open, and a 47th at the Open, he’s officially a guy who you should consider rostering.
