The postseason begins this week with a trip to Jersey City for a showdown with Liberty National Golf Club.
The course has been used a few times in competition since it was opened in 2006. We’ve seen it at the 2009 Barclays, the 2013 Barclays, the 2017 Presidents Cup, and the 2019 NORTHERN TRUST.
This gives us a small sample to work with when it comes to course history.
Instead, we can dive into past performance on similar courses to see who might play well this week at Liberty National Golf Club.
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Bentgrass Greens
Golfers will see A-4 Bentgrass greens this week at Liberty National.
Let’s see who has gained the most strokes per round on courses with bentgrass greens, over the last two years:
Jon Rahm
Xander Schauffele
Patrick Cantlay
Justin Thomas
Tyrrell Hatton
Rory McIlroy
Hideki Matsuyama
Patrick Reed
Dustin Johnson
Harris English
Webb Simpson
Daniel Berger
Collin Morikawa
Russell Henley
Viktor Hovland
We can also look at a golfer’s performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list:
Hank Lebioda
Seamus Power
Adam Schenk
Si Woo Kim
Russell Henley
Sebastian Munoz
Kramer Hickok
Kevin Na
Henrik Norlander
Martin Laird
Lucas Glover
Patton Kizzire
Kyle Stanley
Patrick Cantlay
Charl Schwartzel
Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Russell Henley and Patrick Cantlay.
Cantlay grew up on cool-season turf in California so it makes sense he would still feel more comfortable on bentgrass greens. He just lost 3.6 strokes putting in Memphis on bermudagrass greens so perhaps a flip back to bent can spark his flat stick.
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Long Courses
Liberty National sits at 7,410 yards which sounds manageable by TOUR standards but it’s a par 71 and the hole-by-hole yardages cater more to longer hitters.
Three of the par 3s play over 200 yards. Five of the par 4s play over 470 yards.
Here are the top performers per round, when playing long courses, over the last two years:
Jon Rahm
Rory McIlroy
Viktor Hovland
Dustin Johnson
Hideki Matsuyama
Tony Finau
Webb Simpson
Xander Schauffele
Justin Thomas
Collin Morikawa
Patrick Reed
Brooks Koepka
Paul Casey
Scottie Scheffler
Patrick Cantlay
We can also look at a golfer’s performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list:
C.T. Pan
Charl Schwartzel
Brandt Snedeker
Peter Malnati
Viktor Hovland
Maverick McNealy
Hideki Matsuyama
Alex Noren
Aaron Wise
Tony Finau
Brooks Koepka
K.H. Lee
Dustin Johnson
Tyler McCumber
Matthew Wolff
Overlap List: the names that show up on both lists include Vikor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau, Brooks Koepka, and Dustin Johnson.
There are a few ways to get the job done on lengthy layouts. You can have lots of power to shorten the course (guys above like DJ, Hovland, Brooks, Finau). Or you can lean on your short game since more long courses will result in more missed fairways for the field. Guys on the overperformance list that check that box include C.T. Pan, Brant Snedeker, Peter Malnati, K.H. Lee, and Alex Noren. They won’t be winning any long-drive competitions but they are ultra-efficient from inside of 125 yards to make up for the power deficit.
FanDuel Focus
Viktor Hovland ($10,500): The youngster is starting behind the pack most weeks due to lack of course knowledge but when they head to a course like Liberty National, he is not too far behind in that regard since the course has been used just a few times. As for his game, the results speak for themselves with top 15s in three of his last four worldwide starts including a win on the European Tour. As you can see from the overlap list above, he does quite well on lengthy layouts that allow him to show off from tee-to-green.
Russell Henley ($9,000): He dropped the ball on Sunday but should still be arriving with some confidence in his tank after leading most of the week in Greensboro. Now, he’s facing a much strong field this week but that is reflected in his salary. He sits $1000 lower than the average price of a lineup slot on FanDuel this week. Might not be a bad spot to jump back in while others worry about him faltering on Sunday.
Good luck with your lineups this week and check back tomorrow for some more course-fit analysis.
