There was a time when an AFC East matchup between the Dolphins (1-3) and the Patriots (1-3) meant something in terms of the division and playoff seeding. Although it seems challenging to remember those battles, it actually was not that long ago.
Both these teams enter Week 5 of the 2024 season hurting. The Dolphins have lost their leaders on both offense and defense. While quarterback Tua Tagovailoa may return, LB Jaelan Phillips is out for the season. Let’s acknowledge as a group the Patriots’ talent level was less than average when the season started and now, they have lost maybe the lone elite talent in their roster as David Andrews was declared out for the season earlier this week. That said, even with a healthy Andrews, the Pats’ O-line has allowed 15 sacks in 2024.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, however, and despite the negativity swirling around these teams, there are angles to attack for bettors. Lets dive into the numbers and see if we can find a few sweats.
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Game Details and How to watch Dolphins vs. Patriots
- Date: Sunday, October 6, 2024
- Time: 1PM EST
- Site: Gillette Stadium
- City: Foxborough, MA
- TV/Streaming: FOX
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Game odds for Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Miami Dolphins (-108), New England Patriots (-112)
- Spread: Patriots -1
- Total: 36.5
This game opened at Miami -1 but has flipped to New England laying 1 point following a rough look for the Dolphins Monday night. The Total is right where it opened.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bets
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas) expects points to be at a premium in this one.
“Let’s talk about the grossest game on the slate. Am I right? I’m going UNDER 36.5 points. Yes, it’s a low total, but Snoop Huntley is the quarterback for the Dolphins, and the Patriots still have an elite D. Yes, their offense is no good either. This is a dead UNDER game for me.”
Dolphins vs. Patriots team stats, betting trends
- Miami is 0-4 ATS and their Game Totals have hit the OVER just once in 4 games this season.
- New England is 1-2-1 ATS and their Game Totals have hit the UNDER 2 times through the season’s 1st 4 weeks.
- The UNDER is 4-1 in the Dolphins’ last five games overall.
- The Dolphins are 7-2 on the moneyline in their last 9 against the Patriots.
- The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite.
- New England has scored over 13 points just once this season
- Pats’ QB Brissett has been sacked 15 times in 4 games.
Quarterback matchup for Dolphins vs. Patriots
- Miami: Tyler Huntley – an inauspicious first start for Huntley on Monday night against the Titans. Tyler was 12-22 for 96 yards on the evening.
- New England: Jacoby Brissett – probably happy he is not facing the 49ers again this weekend. Completed 19 of 32 passes for 168 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT against San Francisco.
Dolphins vs. Patriots injury updates
- Dolphins’ QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) remains on IR and is OUT for Sunday’s game.
- Dolphins’ LB Jaelan Phillips (knee) is OUT for Sunday’s game.
- Dolphins’ LT Terron Armstead (undisclosed) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
- Patriots’ C David Andrews (shoulder) is OUT for Sunday’s game.
- Patriots’ S Jabril Peppers (shoulder) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
- Patriots’ WR KJ Osborn (shoulder) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
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