The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
There’s something strangely satisfying about an underdog you picked to cover doing so, while still losing the game. I undoubtedly enjoyed UTEPs 28-25 loss to Florida Atlantic more than UTEP did since I walked away a winner after picking them at +11, and they were left to simply endure the loss.
The South Alabama Jaguars and I both popped victory champagne last weekend, after they covered at -9 against Arkansas State with a 31-13 win.
It’s been a fun few weeks at the Group of 5 NBC Sports EDGE headquarters. After a 2-0 week in Week 7, we had the wind taken out of our sails in Week 8 going 0-2, but were back in the saddle for a 2-0 sweep in Week 9.
Looking to further build off last weekend’s success, it’s time to put our heads down and push toward the finish line of the 2021 college football regular season.
Here’s where I’m placing my money in G5 play this weekend.
USF (+13.5) vs. Houston - O/U 53
This line feels wildly off to me for several reason. Aside from the fact that we are talking about a 7-1 team going up against a 2-6 team, USF has been fantastically awful this season, while Houston has been one of the best offensive teams in the nation, and is fresh off a 44-37 upset win over SMU.
Last weekend marked the fourth time Houston has gone for over 40 points on the season, while they’ve held opponents to 24 points or less in six of their eight games. Houston did allow 37 and 38 points against Texas Tech and SMU as well, but it’s safe to say that USF is nowhere near the caliber of offense that either of those teams are.
USF currently ranks 106th in points per game (22.6), and is averaging just 356.6 points per game as a team. The Bulls’ strength is their rushing attack, which averaged 184.3 yards per game (87th), but Houston has put the clamps on opposing rushing attacks this season, allowing just a 34.0% success rate to opponents rushing attacks (10th) and a 34.1% success rate to their passing attacks (10th).
For Houston, this is probably a game that they could win on the ground or through the air, but for most of the season, the Cougars have relied on the arm of quarterback Clayton Tune.
This season, Tune has been one of the better quarterbacks in the nation, ranking 54th in yards per game (249.9) while completing 68.9% of his passes and averaging two touchdown passes per game. Tune has an average depth of target of 9.1 on the season, but can air it out when he has to. In their win over SMU, Tune finished with an ADOT of 12.0, while completing 27-of-38 passes for a season-high 412 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions.
Wide receiver Nathaniel Dell has dominated in the receiving game for Houston this season, hauling in 49 receptions for 676 yards and seven touchdowns on 72 targets, while drawing a target on 34.7% of his routes run.
On the season, Houston is 5-3 ATS while USF is 4-4. The Bulls managed to cover against good teams like Florida (+28.5) and BYU (+23.5) this season, but I’m hesitant to give them too much credit for covering such big numbers. Although they only lost by eight against BYU, so perhaps you could argue there is something there.
Nevertheless, I struggle to believe that one of the least efficient offensive and defensive units in the nation can keep this one within two scores against an explosive Houston team. The Cougars are outscoring their opponents by an average of 17.5 points per game.
At some point, USF will likely need to move off its run game, and rely on quarterback Timmy McClain to get it done. In his five starts, McClain has gone 63-for-107 passing (58.9%) for 791 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. He’s done a little with his legs as well, rushing 36 times for 246 yards and one touchdown.
Look for Houston to overwhelm USF in this one, and push its ATS record to 6-3.
PICK: Houston (-13.5)
Editor’s Note: Play for FREE! Download the NBC Sports Predictor app, make picks and win huge, weekly jackpots. Get started here!
Hawaii (+7) vs. San Diego State - O/U 45
If you can’t beat em, join em. That’s what I learned in Week 8 when I took to Twitter with a more than public bet against Thor Nystrom, as I picked Air Force (-4) at home against a stout San Diego State defense and quickly learned that if I come for the king, I best not miss, as Air Force fell 20-14.
Apologies for The Wire reference. I’ll see myself out.
The Aztecs currently boast one of the best defenses in the nation, as they are allowing the 12th fewest points per game (17.5), and also the 12th fewest yards per game (305.1). Hawaii on the other hand is allowing the 17th most points per game (33.9) and the 14th most yards per game (461.1)
On the season, San Diego State is 5-3 against the spread, but failed to cover as 2.5 point home dogs against Fresno State. Hawaii is 3-6 against the spread, and has failed to cover in each of its last three games. Quarterback Chevan Cordeiro returned from a three game absences last week at Utah State and threw for 296 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, but the Warriors still lost 51-31 despite being just 4.5 point underdogs.
Hawaii’s strength is its passing attack, but they will need to overcome a top-rated pass defense in order to keep this one close.
In addition to having a pass rush graded at 81.1 on Pro Football Focus (34th), the Aztecs also have a coverage grade of 90.1, which is tied with Florida Atlantic as the seventh best coverage grade in the nation.
As an offense, San Diego State leans on an old fashioned ground and pound attack that’s led by running back Greg Bell. On the year, Bell has rushed 138 times for 666 yards and six touchdowns. Quarterback Lucas Johnson has also rushed for 67 yards on eight carries since being named the team’s starter in Week 8 against Air Force.
As a passer, Johnson has completed 25-of-45 passes (55.6%) for 292 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, but Johnson also tossed two touchdowns against San Jose state in overtime when he first came on in relief of Jordon Brookshire in Week 7.
Offensively, Hawaii has an overall success rate of 42.4% on the season, which ranks 72nd in the nation. They’re slightly better in rushing success rate (48.2%, 36th overall), but a San Diego State Defense that’s holding opposing offenses to a 36.4% success rate (15th), will force Hawaii into passing downs, where they struggle mightily with an overall success rate of 37.9% on passing plays (105th).
Last season this game was played in San Diego. The Aztecs won 34-10, easily covering as 10 point home favorites.
I’m more concerned about San Diego State failing to cover due to jet lag than I am personnel. I’ll happily lay the touchdown in this one, and pick the Aztecs to beat Hawaii handedly on both sides of the ball.
Pick: SDST (-7)
2021 G5 Record: 9-6
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.
