Michigan (5-5) is contending with the inevitable after effects from their memorable 2023 National Championship run, with Michigan’s 76th ranked SP+ offense drastically depreciating their ability to keep pace with the loaded schedule they’ve faced thus far. They’re coming off two understandable losses to Oregon (38-17) and @Indiana (20-15), but the overall trend of losing four of their last five games is troubling. The Wolverines have finally settled on former walk-on QB Davis Warren who emerged from an early-season three-QB rotation to win the job. Michigan ranks dead last nationally (135th) in passing explosiveness and play at the 118th slowest pace in the country. On the other side of the ball, their run defense is top-flight while the UM’s pass defense ranks 33rd in pass explosiveness, but 63rd in success rate (40%) and is a few notches from their dominant 2023 unit.
Northwestern (4-6) has taken their lumps over their first eight games, going just 2-6 against Power Four opponents with all their B10 losses being by scoring margins of 17+ points. Their lone Big Ten victory came in a 37-10 blowout over @Maryland, but the Wildcats recorded a gruesome 0% win expectancy in each of their other 5 Big Ten contests before beating 1-8 Purdue 26-20 in Week 10. An inefficient offense is the team’s biggest area of weakness, ranking 127th in EPA/play and 130th in points per scoring opportunity. Defensively, HC David Braun is fielding a credible unit, ranking 36th in SP+ and 10th in yards per successful rush allowed.
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Game details and how to watch Northwestern at Michigan
· Date: Saturday, November 23rd, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Site: Michigan Stadium
· City: Ann Arbor, MI
· TV/Streaming: FS1
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Game odds for Northwestern at Michigan
The latest odds as of Friday morning:
- Moneyline: Michigan (-450), Northwestern (+325)
- Spread: Michigan (-10.5)
- Over/Under: 36.5 points
We’ve seen a dramatic shift from the Michigan -13.5 opening line to the current range of -10 to -10.5. Michigan’s moneyline has improved from -535 to -425 currently, while Northwestern has come down a bit from +400 to a market high of +365. In true Big Ten, cold weather fashion this game total has dropped from 38.5 to a noticeably low 36.5.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“This game total is perilously low at 36.5 points, with both teams collectively having gone under just 5 times all season out of 20 games. Despite the clear limitations of each respective offense, I think they can combine to clear this very reasonable 36.5 point game total.”
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Quarterback matchup for Northwestern at Michigan
- Michigan: The quarterback three-man-weave between Davis Warren, Alex Orji and Jack Tuttle fueled the rapid descent of Michigan’s once-formidable offense. Warren has stabilized the position a bit, completing 62% of his passes with a 5-to-6 TD/INT ratio while averaging a pedestrian 5.9 yards per pass attempt. That being said, Orji was notably less effective and produced just 148 passing yards on 43 attempts before mercifully being pulled in favor of Indiana transfer Jack Tuttle. Tuttle was barely serviceable before retiring and mercifully turning the job back to Warren. To his credit, Warren hasn’t thrown an interception in his last three games and has earned a respectable 72.7 PFF passing grade.
- Northwestern: QB Jack Lausch leads a listless passing attack that ranks 118th in success rate and 126th in passing explosion with a 55.2% completion rate. He sports a 5-4 ratio and has done a commendable job avoiding sacks with a 15.5% pressure-to-sack rate, which is key since the Wildcats’ offensive line is allowing a troubling 32.8% pressure rate (77th). Lausch has earned a respectable 66th% PFF passing grade, but also owns the second-lowest completion rate among P4 signal callers. Lausch’s best game of the season was against Purdue two games ago when he completed 66% of his 35 passes for 250 yards, a 1-0 ratio and a solid 84.7 PFF passing grade.
Betting trends & recent stats
- Michigan’s previously impenetrable secondary has intercepted 7 of 344 attempts this season (49=to-1 ratio), which is the 4th-lowest interception rate in the Big Ten. Purdue ranks last with a 67 pass attempts-to-interception ratio.
- Donovan Edwards (MICH) has rushed for 10 or more yards on just 9 of his 114 carries this season (7.9%), which is the 4th-lowest big play rate among Power Conference Running Backs; Michigan RB Kalel Mullings ranks 5th-lowest with an 8.5% big play rate.
- Northwestern’s WRs have gained 1,218 yards on 100 receptions (12.2 YPR) this season, 27th-worst among FBS WRs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.8 yards per reception this season, 27th-best among FBS defenses.
- QB Jack Lausch has converted 16% of his third-down situations this season, which is the second-lowest rate among P4 quarterbacks. (Brock Glenn = #1 at 15%)
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