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Justin Verlander O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Angels
Justin Verlander will make his first start since July 24, 2020.
As we have seen with starting pitchers, most of them are not exceeding 5.0 innings because of a short spring training, and I expect Verlander to be another.
The 39-year-old pitched 13.2 innings in Spring Ball and struck out 15 compared to four walks. Verlander allowed six hits, two earned runs, one walk and five strikeouts in his final Spring Training game (5.0 IP).
Through two games, Framber Valdez recorded six strikeouts in 6.2 innings, and Jake Odorizzi totaled two in 4.0 IP against the Angels. Houston won both games, so if Los Angeles is to square up this four-game series, it starts tonight against Verlander.
Dating back to last season, the previous eight starting RHP went Under 6.5 Ks versus Los Angeles. Out of the last 25, there werxe only 10 (40%), per statmuse. In 2019, Verlander threw the four-seam fastball in 54.8% of his pitches, per basaeballsavant.com, which is not a recipe for strikeouts.
I played the Under 6.5 strikeouts for +110 odds for 1.5 units and would play this out to -150 for 1 unit.
I would play this for 1.5 units out to -130 odds, then everything is 1 unit after that.
I would have played Under 5.5 Ks too and that line is trending there on DraftKings.
Pick: Justin Verlander Under 6.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)
Luis Severino O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Red Sox
Here is another pitcher who has been injured often and will make his first start since October 15, 2019 -- a postseason start against Houston.
Luis Severino pitched 7.1 innings of relief work last season down the stretch for the Yankees. The 28-year-old recorded nine strikeouts and two walks with three hits and one earned run.
That one earned run came in the postseason against the Red Sox, who he will face today. Out of the last 25 starting RHP to face Boston, only nine of them went Over 5.5 strikeouts (36%), per statmuse.
Severino pitched in three games of Spring Training ball and was smacked around in two of three games. He allowed seven earned runs and eight hits in two games and one strikeout to five walks.
Severino went 4.0 innings in the final outing and totaled three Ks to one hit. However, Severino is already dealing with shoulder soreness.
The injury bothered him in the Spring, and per the New York Post, it doesn’t sound like Severino will try to go all out and earn Ks.
“Every time they give me the ball, I throw hard,’’ Severino said. “I noticed the last couple days that I don’t need to throw 100, 99, 98 [mph]. If I can control the zone and throw 94-95-97 for five or six innings and get people out, it’s [safer for my arm].”
Tommy John surgery, among other injuries, has held Severino to 19.1 IP over the last three seasons, which is another reason to fade him here. I am not sure he will have his control down enough to trust him for six strikeouts against the Red Sox.
I played the Under 5.5 Ks for -125 odds and would play it out to -150. I don’t think he goes more than 5.0 innings here.
Pick: Luis Severino Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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— Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) April 9, 2022
Mikolas was 7-2 to Under 4.5 Ks last season and had a rough Spring Training.
This is a spot where even as a Pirates fan, I like it a lot 🤙🏽 https://t.co/UbTxX6pwYp
Miles Mikolas O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Pirates
Get ready to sweat. Miles Mikolas will make his first start of the 2022 season after making nine starts in 2021 and three in Spring Training this year.
Mikolas went 7-2 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts last season (77.8%) and had an interesting Spring. He started three games and only recorded six strikeouts in 13.0 innings of action. Last year, he went Under once (three Ks) and Over once (five Ks) versus Pittsburgh.
Mikolas went 5.0 and 6.0 innings in his previous two Spring Training starts and recorded three strikeouts to one walk with eight hits allowed and two earned runs.
Our player prop model projects Mikolas to record 3.5 strikeouts, hitting the Under.
Mikolas is projected to last 5.0 innings, and when he has gone 5.0 IP or less, the Cardinals pitcher was 5-1 to the Under (83.3%). He went 5.1 IP or more in three starts and was 2-1 to the Under (66.6%).
In 2021, he averaged 0.70 Ks per inning and struck out nine pitchers in nine starts (15 plate appearances). Mikolas faced nothing but NL teams in 2021, so the new DH rule will affect him more than others.
Mikolas held opposing pitchers to .077 OBA compared to .268 to position players, per baseball-reference. He struck out 22 position players out of 171 plate appearances (12.8%) with 11 walks.
I know the Pirates are bad, but they were a strong K team last year. They struck out six times versus Adam Wainwright on Opening Day, but who was surprised by that? Wainwright owns the Pirates. Mikolas, on the other hand, does not.
Let’s take the Under 4.5 Ks (-128) and play it out to -160. I think he will struggle to reach four Ks.
Pick: Mike Mikolas Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Brandon Woodruff O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Cubs
We should all just admit that the Chicago Cubs will win the World Series after their Opening Day win over Corbin Burnes (kidding, but they looked good).
Today, Chicago welcomes Brandon Woodruff, who was 12-11 to the Under 6.5 Ks at 6.0 or fewer innings last year (52.1%) and 6-2 to the Under 6.5 Ks at 5.2 IP or less (75%), per our model -- and we have Woodruff pegged at 5.1 IP.
Yesterday, this prop was O/U 5.5, and the Over was juiced to -135 before some sharps pushed this to the -160/-170 range. The books, rightly, avoided that 5.5 line and gave us 6.5 with the Under juiced.
Woodruff has plenty of career starts versus Chicago. In his 11 regular-season starts versus the Cubs, Woodruff has recorded seven-plus Ks in five of them (45.4%) and four of the last six (66.6%). However, we saw versus Burnes on Opening Day that this is not the free-swinging Cubs of before.
Woodruff owned a 2.79 ERA in 16 road starts last season (5-7 record) and 1.14 Ks per inning compared to a 2.31 ERA at home in 14 starts (3-4 record) and 1.22 Ks per inning.
While I would have seriously considered betting the Over 5.5 versus the Cubs, I would not look at 6.5 as he is likely to go 5.0 innings because of what happened in Spring Training.
Woodruff started three games in Spring Training and allowed 14 earned runs on 16 hits and six home runs. That is a red flag. He struck out 12 total, including five each in his past two Spring Training starts, which is why this is only a 1 unit bet.
Woodruff might have a rough April based on his short Spring Training. Let’s play the Under 6.5 Ks at -140 odds out to -160.
Pick: Brandon Woodruff Under 6.5 Ks (1u)
Jordan Lyles O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Rays
Welcome back, old friend. If you are looking for some early and sweaty action, Jordan Lyles can provide that.
This opened at 4.5 at +115 to the Under 4.5 Ks, but sharp money pushed this to -135 on some books. PB lists this at -115 odds, which is what I grabbed. I wanted to wait for the Rays lineup.
Tampa Bay with switch hitters, will have potentially seven LHB in the lineup today, making life difficult for the RHP. Lyles walked 10 more LHB on 115 fewer at-bats and his strikeout percentages dropped 3-4%.
In his career versus Tampa Bay, Lyles has three career meetings and never hit five strikeouts. In the previous meeting which was last season, Lyles totaled four strikeouts in 5.1 IP with five hits and three earned runs.
On the road, his ERA jumped to 5.56 ERA from 4.75 at home and finished the season 7-3 to the Under 4.5 Ks in his last 10 games away from home. He was one of our most bet pitchers down the stretch outside of Keegan Akin (I miss you).
In his two Spring Training games, Lyles struck out six in 8.0 innings and allowed three earned runs on eight hits. I think the Rays will be be able to hit Lyles and his DraftKings juiced his Over 4.5 hits in this game, then took it off, which is not a good sign for the Orioles latest acquisition.
With all the lefties and switch hitters in the lineup, fade Lyles Under 4.5 strikeouts (-115) out to -140.
Pick: Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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