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A decent Sunday wrapped what was overall a very strong weekend. By the way, did anybody notice a clip on Twitter about Gerrit Cole repeatedly going to his right buttcheek during yesterday’s start? Can’t wait to find out he’s getting suspended for a sticky stuff violation, which we had the Under strikeouts in. Monday’s slate might be light, but it’s loaded for us.
*Each play will be labeled (1 through number “X”) to determine how I rank my plays on a daily basis.
San Francisco Giants (+165) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-200) Over/Under 7 (1)
Wait ‘til you see what the top play of the day is. Since that disappointing start on Opening Day against the Cubs, Big Daddy Burnes has been butter. Allowing only two runs in his last two starts (over 14 innings) to go along with 18 punchouts, it looks like Burnes is getting his groove back. Of course, it was against the Pirates and Orioles, so tonight against the Giants will be a little more telling.
A trend I have noticed during the starts of the Brewers’ ace so far this season is a Twitter controversial play (for some reason); the NRFI! In his first three outings of the year, the ‘No Runs First Inning’ prop has cashed each time. Now, I have no idea why it is such a hot button issue to dish out a NRFI/YRFI play, but let somebody come tell me that to my face.
Milwaukee’s suspect offense has not scored in the first inning in five straight games and has only plated an opening frame run four times in their first 16 games. Against San Fran’s lefty opener (not a true starter), Sam Long, it is a difficult proposition to back their .176 average, .545 OPS, and nine runs scored vs. southpaws this year.
Aside from the fact that the Giants are facing Corbin Burnes, they are also 12-4 on the NRFI themselves this season. I would play this out to -150.
PREDICTION: NRFI (-138)
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Corbin Burnes O/U 7.5 Strikeouts vs. San Francisco Giants (2)
Come on, you thought I was done with that? After smashing Burnes’ K total Over against Chicago and getting hosed for it, I let him get a couple more starts under his belt before diving back in. This will be my first one since. After watching him the last couple of weeks, his stuff is back to where it should be; high 90’s fastballs and a razor-sharp breaking pitch, both of which he is painting corners like Picasso with.
Sitting on 22 K’s in his first 19 innings, Burnesy looks like he’s back to business. Better yet, manager Craig Counsell has also allowed him a ton of leeway pitching through seven innings and well over 90 pitches in his last two outings. Ultimately drawing the Giants with the ninth-highest K total (144) this year, this presents a strong matchup for Corbin. Not to mention, in their first four series of the year (Marlins, Padres, Guardians, Mets), the Giants struck out at least seven times in all but one game, including at least five double-digit punchout tallies. It is certainly well worth a play out to -145. If you find an Over 8.5 for plus money, it is worth a sprinkle.
PREDICTION: Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-154)
Cleveland Guardians (+100) @ Los Angeles Angels (-121) | Over/Under 8 (3)
One of the more unsung plays in the MLB over the last year happens in the first five when Shane Bieber is pitching. Coming off a bad shoulder injury that kept him out of basically the whole second half of 2021, Bieber has bounced back nicely. In every one of his outings, his pitches look more crisp, command looks stronger and rhythm is more fluid. Not to mention, the leash has been getting longer.
So far, he has only allowed four earned runs through 16 innings, with just one of them coming in the first half. You may remember me saying this, but the F5 Total Under when Bieber pitches is basically an automatic bet for me everytime. The only reason it’s not 3-0 when he pitches this season is because the White Sox threw up all over themselves last week allowing a 10-spot in the second inning.
Of course, this could get away from us with Michael Lorenzen pitching for LA, but outside of a few big games, the Cleveland offense has not been plating a ton of runs. In six games with the Giants and Yankees, they scored two or less runs in every one of them. With Bieber on the mound to keep a lid on Angels offense that has struggled to square up the elite pitchers in the game like Justin Verlander, this thing should stay Under.
PREDICTION: F5 Under 4.5 runs (-125)
Shane Bieber O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. LA Angels (4)
Yeah, Bieber again. It’s the same thing with him as I did with Burnes: wait and see. After finally eclipsing an Over on K’s, I felt confident enough in what I saw to jump back into the water. Tonight he draws a lineup that has compiled the eighth-most K’s in the league (148). Over their last six contests, LA has punched out at least nine times in four of them, with three being in the double-digits. And not for nothing, but this lineup has been rung up 93 times against righties this season, clearly showing how they favor lefty pitching.
This thing is a juice latte at -150, but if Bieber looks how he did last week, not only should he see close to 90 pitches, but grabbing seven K’s will be a smash. This can be played out to -160.
PREDICTION: Over 6.5 strikeouts (-150)
LA Dodgers (-200) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+165) | Over/Under 8.5 (5)
Last one. We get that the Dodgers are 11-4 already and have covered the runline in all 11 of those wins. They’re a great team, but they still won’t win every game. It’s hard to say this, but based on what we’re seeing from Walker Buehler, I can’t touch him right now.
In three straight starts it seems like Buehler’s taken a personal day off, giving up at least two runs in all of his outings with only five/five-plus innings. The command looks terrible, and the pitches are all over the place. He is unable to execute his breaking stuff the way he has in the past. Surely he will figure it out, but until he does let’s try to make some dough going the other way.
I don’t have any true metrics pointing to an advantage for the D-Backs, but I can look at my preseason NL ROY Darkhorse Seth Beer as a guy who can take advantage. Not to mention, their starter Merrill Kelly is off to a hot start (one run in 15.1 IP), and he shoved two quality starts against LA last season at home.
I think the D-Backs are live for the upset tonight, but realistically the runline is one we can steal.
PREDICTION: Arizona RL +1.5 (+100)
Have a taste, kid.
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