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Nuggets (-7) at Jazz: O/U 225.0
The Nuggets have lost three-straight trips to Utah and nine of the past 10. Overall, Denver has lost five-straight versus Utah and this is a perfect spot for Denver to take Utah to the cleaners.
Denver opened last year with a 112-98 win in Phoenix and this Utah team is ready for a top five overall selection.
Denver has won three-straight season-openers when they are on the road by nine, eight and 12 points. The Nuggets led by four and five points at halftime in two of those three games.
The Jazz will start Mike Conley, Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, Jarred Vanderbilt and Kelly Olynyk, which is one of the worst starting fives in the league, especially defensively.
Utah has only been a home underdog once since 2020, so this will be uncommon territory turned very common this season. Denver finished last season on a 9-1 ML run (90%) and 6-3-1 ATS (66.6%) stretch as a road favorite.
The Nuggets will have Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. for this matchup, plus Nikola Jokić basically told reporters his taped wrist is fine and to quit asking about it. Denver should roll in the season-opener
This is a spot where the Nuggets could cover the first quarter, first half and full game, but I don’t want to be greedy on day 2.
Denver led the league in 1H points per game last season (58.9) and while both teams were bottom 10 in the NBA for 1H ATS numbers, Utah was the worst underdog ATS in the 1H last year at 2-7-1 ATS.
As a full-game underdog, Utah was 1-7 on the ML (12.5%) and 2-5-1 ATS (28.5%) last season.
The Jazz have lost seven-straight as an underdog entering this game.
I played the Nuggets 1H and Full Game ML on PointsBet at -140 odds under the “Game Props” section.
It’s called “Half-Time and Full-Time” -- I risked 1 unit to win 0.71 units.
This game prop has bounced between -175 and -210 on DraftKings and it’s -160 on FanDuel under the “Same Game Parlay” section, so there is value despite it being heavily juiced at -140 odds.
These two teams play each other on Friday Oct. 28 and this line will be around -12 or higher as Denver is the home team. Denver has a game at Golden State next, so I will stay away from the full-game of -7 to -8.
Pick: Nuggets Half-Time and Full-Time ML Parlay (Risking 1u)
More Wednesday NBA Plays
Bam Adebayo O/U 16.5 Points vs. Bulls
New York Knicks vs Memphis Grizzlies
OTHER NBA NOTES
Mavericks at Suns (-4.5): O/U 216.5
Playoff revenge! The Mavericks knocked the Suns out of the postseason last year, so Phoenix has looked forward to this matchup for quite some time.
Not only did the Mavs beat the Suns, the Mavs destroyed the Suns. Dallas’ 33-point win in Game 7 of the second round was the NBA’s second-largest series-clinching win since 1948!
The Suns have won nine-straight regular-season meetings versus the Mavericks and own an impressive 7-2 ATS (77.8%) record during that stretch.
Last season, Dallas went 7-0 on the ML as a favorite and 0-4 on the ML and ATS as an underdog in the first 11 games. Overall, Dallas lost seven-straight games as an underdog to start last year and 14 out of 17!
I lean the Suns here, but I know heavy hitters liking Dallas. I would rather live bet Phoenix on the ML if they are trailing in this game. I need to see Luka Dončić‘s game shape after playing EuroLeague all summer before backing Dallas this early in the season.
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