The first game of the NBA Play-In Tournament takes place tonight in Indiana, where the Pacers will host the Charlotte Hornets.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Indiana Pacers (-3) Total: 227
The Hornets won their regular season series vs. the Pacers, winning two of the three games played. The Under also cashed in two of those matchups. Charlotte being in this position is a big accomplishment for them. Coming into the season the Hornets were not expected to be competing in the postseason, with a preseason projected Win Total of 26.5 on PointsBet. Despite finishing the season on a five-game losing streak, Charlotte successfully hit the Over on their Win Total with 33 victories. Rookie LaMelo Ball is a huge favorite to win the league’s Rookie of the Year award, and things seem to be moving in the right direction for the Hornets.
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The Pacers, unlike the Hornets, were expected to be in the postseason this year. At the NBA All-Star break, the Pacers were -200 to make the playoffs. This season has been a disappointment for the Pacers, as they have gone 34-38 SU and a horrific 31-41 ATS on the season. TJ Warren missed just about the whole season, Victor Oladipo was a non-factor before he was traded and Caris LeVert will miss the next couple of games due to health and safety protocols.
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This game opened up with the Pacers as a 3.5 home favorite. As home favorites this season, the Pacers were a laughable 6-14 ATS. Betting against them as a home favorite would have led to a win seventy percent of the time. The Hornets have not played all that well down the stretch, entering tonight’s contest 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS in their last five outings. Although the Pacers have more big game experience, I don’t see where you can back Indiana.
PointsBet is reporting 54% of the bets backing the Pacers but 63% of the money on the Hornets. The opening line of Pacers -3.5 has moved to Pacers -3. I can see it getting to 2.5 by tip-off, and I’m going to agree with the sharp money and back the Hornets on the spread and the Money Line. I also like the Hornets to go Over their team total of 112 on PointsBet.
Edge Finder Tip: This season when the Pacers have been home favorites, the Over cashes 55% of the time.
Edge: Hornets +3, Over 227, Hornets Team Total Over 112
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