The AFC Championship is set with Buffalo versus Kansas City in a rematch of a thriller earlier in the season (Buffalo won 30-21) and the 2020 AFC Championship Game (KC won 38-24).
The Chiefs handled the Texans (23-14) on the strength of its defense and the combination of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce (8 catches for 117 yards and one touchdown). Kansas City lost the earlier meeting at Buffalo (30-21) and it was one of the worst games for both players as Mahomes tossed two picks and Kelce had eight yards on two receptions.
The Bills rallied to a 27-25 win over the Ravens in the Divisional Round thanks to winning the turnover battle 3-0 and a little help from a Mark Andrews drop on the two-point conversion. However, Buffalo is riding high and if they can replicate limiting Mahomes and Kelce again, this could be Buffalo’s first Super Bowl appearance since 1994.
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Game Details and How to watch the Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday
· Date: Saturday, January 26, 2024
· Time: 6:30 PM EST
· Site: Arrowhead Stadium
· City: Kansas City, MO
· TV/Streaming: CBS / Paramount+
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Game odds for Texans vs. Chiefs
The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Kansas City Chiefs (-125), Buffalo Bills (+015)
Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (-110)
Total: 47.5
Kansas City opened at -2 with a game total of 48.0 to 48.5, so there has been slight money coming in on Buffalo and the Under. The Bills were a -2.5 home favorite with a game total of 46.5 in the Nov. 17 meeting. The Bills covered and the Over cashed.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) likes Patrick Mahomes to go Under 0.5 Interceptions and the Chiefs to advance to another Super Bowl:
“Kansas City’s only loss of the season with Mahomes under center came at Buffalo (30-21) and he had a shaky game with two interceptions. Since then, Mahomes has thrown zero interceptions over seven games with 13 total touchdowns and a 7-0 record.
Josh Allen and the Bills visited Arrowhead in 2020 and lost 38-24 in the AFC Championship game to the Chiefs. While there are a lot of players and the revenge angle for Buffalo and Kansas City (lost at Buffalo earlier this year), Arrowhead in a playoff environment is a tough obstacle to overcome.
I like the Chiefs on the ML at -125 odds and Mahomes to go Under 0.5 interceptions again at -110 odds.”
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs team stats, betting trends
- Kansas City is 8-10 ATS on the season and 3-6 ATS at home.
- Buffalo is 12-7 ATS on the season and 3-2 ATS as an underdog.
- The Chiefs are 11-7 to the Under, ranking third-best.
- The Bills are 11-7-1 to the Over, ranking 10th-best.
- Buffalo is 3-1-1 to the Under as an underdog.
- Josh Allen is 0-1 in the AFC Championship Game.
- Patrick Mahomes is 4-2 in the AFC Championship Game.
- Travis Kelce recorded 117 yards on 8 receptions for a touchdown last week.
- Kareem Hunt has scored a touchdown in three consecutive games.
- Patrick Mahomes has gone Under 0.5 interceptions in seven straight.
- Josh Allen has gone Under 0.5 interceptions in four straight and seven of the previous eight.
- Josh Allen has four games with two-plus rushing touchdowns.
- James Cook has 40 rushing attempts for 187 yards and a touchdown in the postseason.
- Khalil Shakir totaled 61 and 67 yards in two games on 12 total receptions and 13 targets in the playoffs.
Quarterback matchup for Kansas City vs. Buffalo
Buffalo: Josh Allen - Allen is having a historic season with 44 total touchdowns and six interceptions including the playoffs. Allen finished the regular season as the MVP favorite with 3,731 passing yards, 531 rushing yards, and a 63.6 completion percentage.
Kansas City: Patrick Mahomes - Mahomes finished the regular season with 3,928 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Mahomes has seven straight games without an interception, including the playoffs and 13 total touchdowns in that span.
Chiefs and Bills injury update
For the Chiefs, LB Cam Jones is questionable with an illness, but there are no news other than that. WR’s Rashee Rice, Mecole Hardman, and Skyy Moore are on IR, along with kicker Spencer Shrader and TE Jared Wiley.
For Buffalo, CB Christian Brentford is in concussion protocol and S Taylor Rapp is day-to-day with a hip injury, while DE Casey Toohill (ribs) and LB Baylon Spector (calf) are questionable.
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