Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his favorite player props of Week 6, including Kirk Cousins and CJ Stroud, plus four ATS game picks.
Kirk Cousins O/U 252.5 Pass Yards vs. Panthers
I love fading players off career highs because their prop lines are usually hiked up too high and an example one this week is Kirk Cousins at Carolina.
Cousins is coming off a career-high of 509 passing yards. Before that, Cousins hasn’t thrown more than 241 passing yards in a game and he’s getting a line between 248.5 and 252.5 at most shops after opening around 255.5.
The Falcons should win because Carolina cannot stop anyone near the red zone and if that’s the case, points will come in bunches and Cousins won’t have to air out. Carolina has faced five quarterbacks and four tossed 232 yards or fewer, while rookie Caleb Williams was the first to go over that (304 yards in a 36-10 win).
I like Cousins Under 252.5 Passing Yards at -110 odds on DraftKings and FanDuel. I would go down to 245.5 for 1.5 units.
Pick: Kirk Cousins Under 252.5 Passing Yards (1.5u)
CJ Stroud O/U 237.5 Passing Yards vs. Patriots
I don’t think CJ Stroud will be utilized nearly enough to go Over this number and this is a great sell-high spot after 345 and 331 passing yards over the last two weeks.
With Nico Collins out as well, Houston won’t have its deep threat and the leading yardage receiver in the league to assist Stroud to another big game. From Weeks 2-4, New England allowed Geno Smith (327), Aaron Rodgers (281), and Brock Purdy (288) all to go well over this number for passing yards, so this line points towards an Under play.
Houston should be in a positive game script and running back Joe Mixon returns from injury for this matchup. I played Stroud Under 237.5 Passing Yards at FanDuel for -110 odds and would go down to 230.5.
Pick: CJ Stroud Under 237.5 Passing Yards (1.5u)
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Jaguars (-1) vs Bears: O/U 44.5
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are in their second home in London to face the Chicago Bears and No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams.
The spread has been trending toward the Jaguars, moving from +2.5 to +1 and -1 as of the morning of the game. I expected the Jags to close as slight favorites. While some will say last week’s 37-34 win over the Colts was uninspiring, I saw an offense humming with confidence and a team desperate to earn a win.
Being in London this week and the next to host the Patriots is a great situation for Jacksonville to course-correct its season and reach 3-4 after a dreadful 0-3 start. I see the vision and think it is possible. I grabbed the Jags +1.5 on the ML at -105 and -115 odds.
Pick: Jaguars +1.5 or ML (1u)
Buccaneers (-3.5) at Saints: O/U 41.5
Most people will like the Bucs this week after the injuries continue piling up for the Saints, but things will be looking up for New Orleans with Spencer Rattler at QB.
New Orleans has scored 49 total points over the last three games, and they were all losses, including the second of a back-to-back against the Chiefs on MNF, so it couldn’t get any worse.
The Saints are now back at home in a desperation spot against a familiar opponent with a QB change -- this is a good situation for New Orleans believe it or not. With Derek Carr ruled out, the books adjusted this spread from New Orleans -3 to Tampa Bay -3, which is far too big of a move.
Give me the Saints +3.5 at -112 odds and down to +3. I think they can win this game outright and the defense will come to play.
Pick: Saints +3.5 (1u)
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Cardinals at Packers (-5.5): O/U 47.0
Arizona spent three weeks at home before that road trip to San Francisco that resulted in a comeback win thanks to Jordan Mason’s red zone fumble. Now, Arizona is on the road once again for their first back-to-back road trip of the season.
Arizona’s defense ranks 30th with an average of 36.4 yards allowed per possession and 7.7 yards per pass attempt (29th), while Green Bay’s defense has a takeaway on 23.2% of opponent possessions, which ranks the best in the league.
The Cardinals have either shut down opponents or allowed 20-plus points in the second half of their games. There is no telling which Arizona team we get, but on the second road game in two weeks against playoff opponents, I will have to fade Arizona and back the Pack -5 at -118 odds on DraftKings out to -5.5.
Pick: Packers -5 (1u)
Bills (-2.5) at Jets: O/U 41.0
The New York Jets made the head coaching change and in sports betting, that is something you normally want to back. This being a home prime-time game for a coaching debut is also pretty exciting and a good setup for the Jets to get another AFC East victory.
The injury to Aaron Rodgers (ankle/hamstring) is concerning, but I like the Jets’ defense much more than the Bills who have given up 58 combined points to the only two good teams they have played (Ravens, Texans).
Buffalo has defeated Arizona, Miami, and Jacksonville, who are a combined 5-10. It should be easy for the Jets to get up for this game and be excited to enter a new era in an AFC East that is up for grabs.
Winning at home against Josh Allen and the Bills could go a long way in the playoff race two months from now. I like the Jets to cover the +2.5 (-112) and win outright (+115).
Pick: Jets +2.5 (1u)
Season Record: 28-19-4 (59.5%) +13.25 units
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