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There may only be three games set to take place in the National Hockey League on Wednesday evening, however there are a couple of wagers that appeal given the prices available.
Below you will find overlays from two of tonight’s games available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
WASHINGTON CAPITALS at CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (Capitals -1.5, -136 ML, OU 5.5)
Even though Chicago got the better of these two in their only matchup so far this season, Washington is the better team – and among the best of the best in the NHL.
The Capitals have not been in raging form recently, going 6-4 in their last ten games, yet the quality of their victories suggests the veteran-laden squad is still playing well.
Wins over the likes of Florida (seventh in my power ratings), Carolina (third in my power ratings), and Anaheim (tenth in my power ratings) suggest Washington can beat any team on any given night.
The same cannot be said about the Chicago Blackhawks, a team that has alternated wins and losses over their last twelve games.
Based on this logic they are due for a win tonight; however, it is hard to be too enthused about a team that is 29th in the league in goals scored per game at 2.19.
Based on my numbers, Washington defeats Chicago by at least two goals 42.6% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of +135.
When compared to the Capitals’ puck line odds of +175 (implied probability of 36.4%), it becomes clear why this is the play in this game.
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SEATTLE KRAKEN at ANAHEIM DUCKS (Ducks -1.5, -165 ML, OU 5.5)
The Seattle Kraken snapped a three-game losing streak last night in San Jose, defeating the Sharks by a final score of 3-1.
It was an overall impressive performance for the Kraken, but especially for goaltender Chris Driedger.
Driedger stopped 33 of 34 shots against, delivering one of his best performances in a Kraken sweater.
Unfortunately for Seattle, tonight’s game is likely to feature Philipp Grubauer between the pipes.
Grubauer was supposed to be the star for the expansion franchise on the heels of his outstanding season in Colorado last year, only to see him play horribly to this point.
For the season, Grubauer owns a GAA of 3.25 and a SV% of .884, both numbers that easily represent the worst of his career.
His last five games have featured much of the same, yielding seventeen goals on a total of 124 shots (SV% of .863).
All of this is to suggest the Kraken could be in for a long night against an Anaheim Ducks team that has begun to attract some much-deserved attention.
I maintain the Ducks are not among the upper echelon in the National Hockey League – but they are not far off.
As a “plus” team on the power play (25.32%; fifth in the NHL), penalty kill (86.67%; third in the NHL), and goaltending (2.67 goals against per game; ninth in the NHL), Anaheim is a well-rounded bunch that will be a handful for most teams in the league.
John Gibson may be down with a lower-body injury, but Anthony Stolarz is more than capable of leading this team while their ace is sidelined.
Based on my projections, Anaheim defeats Seattle by at least two goals 42.5% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of +135.
While not an enormous overlay, the Ducks’ puck line odds of +150 (implied probability of 40%) is just that – an overlay.
THE PLAYS
Washington Capitals at Chicago Blackhawks – Capitals -1.5 (+175)
Seattle Kraken at Anaheim Ducks – Ducks -1.5 (+150)
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