After 50 matches, 140 goals, and countless epic moments, the stage is set for the final act of Euro 2020.
England face Italy Sunday at Wembley Stadium in London for one of the most anticipated finals in recent European Championship history. The final will mark England’s first trip to the finale at a major tournament since their 1966 World Cup victory over West Germany. Playing on home soil at the same venue where they won their lone major title is an advantage you cannot overlook. Italy, however, should not be taken lightly. The Azzurri are 1-for-3 in Euro finals and 4-for-6 in World Cup Finals. Although Italy came up short in the finals of Euro 2000 and Euro 2012, they have an impressive all-time winning percent of 55.5 percent at major tournament finals.
Looking at the odds, courtesy of our friends at PointsBet Sportsbook, England are slight +160 moneyline favorites over Italy (+195). The match total is set at 2.5 goals, with the under expected at -220. With sparks set to fly in a match that could go either way, here are some player-focused wagers that warrant consideration ahead of Sunday’s Euro 2020 final at Wembley Stadium. As always, all the markets referenced are based on the result at the end of regular time. This includes any added injury or stoppage time but does not include extra time, or a penalty shoot-out.
[[ad:athena]]
Italy (+195) vs. England (+160) | Draw (+195) | Sunday 3:00 pm ET
All the buzz surrounding England makes it easy to overlook the fact that Italy enter the final unbeaten in their last 30 matches. The Azzurri do not have the star power like in years past, but the absence of traditional superstars allowed Robert Mancini to mold a selection of talented players into a well-oiled machine. Jorginho, Marco Verratti, and Nicola Barella have been arguably the best midfield trio in the tournament, while the defense has conceded just three goals despite losing both starting fullbacks. The key for Italy will be the continuation of their collective attacking power. Six different players have scored, and five have found the back of the net twice, while three other players have tallied a pair of assists. Their high-octane attacking style makes it no surprise that they top the charts for chances created per match (15.5) and rank second in shots per game (18).
While England is a team that needs their key players to show up to win, Italy benefits from having enough weapons to mask the lack of a clinical finisher. Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne remain the most recognized attackers, but Federico Chiesa has significantly impacted the knockout stage. Chiesa’s direct style of play sees him classified as a one-dimensional attacker. The winger is unique for a few reasons. Chiesa is an accurate high-volume shooter who averages a low volume of touches and shoots from low-percentage shooting areas. During the last three games, he led Italy’s front three in goals (2), shots (9), and shots on target (5) despite being bottom in touches (77).
Italy’s approach against England will mirror how they played against Spain, which means Chiesa will play a massive role. Their goal in regulation was the product of a swift counterattack that began with a ball out of the back from goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma. Chiesa trailed the play while the sequence developed, putting himself in position to pick up the ball at the edge of the area in a pocket of space between Spain’s backtracking players and already retreated three. It was clear his only intention was to shoot once he got on the ball, sending his curled effort beyond the reach of Spain’s goalkeeper before he was able to react.
Both of Chiesa’s goals have come from counterattacks, and his ability to find the target with what seems like a speculative effort bodes well against an England side that is yet to allow double-digit shots during the knockout stage. Only two players have tallied three shots and one shot on target during the span. As a threat whenever and wherever he gets on the ball, Chiesa is worth backing as anytime goalscorer at +450.
England are playing with a level of confidence we have not seen since the early 1990s. They passed their first test when they faced Germany, thrashed Ukraine, and always looked likely to beat Denmark despite conceding first. Gareth Southgate’s team have had everything go their way, which begs the question of whether they can respond if Italy scores extremely early or some form of VAR shenanigans goes against them. Host nations are undefeated in World Cup Finals, but it is worth noting that the last two host countries to reach the Euro final they did not emerge victoriously. Still, given the current situation, playing on home soil in front of a near-packed capacity crowd at Wembley is an unparalleled advantage.
When it comes to anytime goal-scoring props, Harry Kane will be the most backed player at +185. He has scored in all three of England’s knockout stage matches, netting four goals on nine shots and six shots on target, following three goalless outings during the group stage. Kane’s impressive shot on target percentage is supplemented by the volume of shots opposing center-forwards have produced against Italy during the knockout stage. Both Marko Arnautovic and Romelu Lukaku had three shots and one shot on target, while Dani Olmo had five shots and two shots on target, and Álvaro Morata produced a goal off the bench. England will not dominate the midfield as Spain did. Still, I do expect them to have a controlling stake with Kane’s movement upfront requiring constant attention from Chiellini and Bonucci, as well as Jorginho. Morata’s movement forced the Italian center-backs to respect runs in behind, and this allowed the striker to drop deep and get on the ball uncontested to start the sequence that led to Spain’s goal.
Time on the ball to create quality chances and shoot will not be an issue for Kane, and it is hard to see England’s captain going without a goal in the biggest game of his career. Whether it comes from a distance or a less than aesthetically pleasing finish during a scramble in the box, expect Kane to get on the scoresheet on Sunday.
If Kane is the focal point of England’s attack, Raheem Sterling is the catalyst that makes everything work. Sterling has consistently set England’s attack in motion throughout their run to the final, producing excellent performances on a match-to-match basis. The Manchester City winger was the driving force behind the come-from-behind win over Denmark. He put three of his six shots on target, completed eight of 13 attempted dribbles, and tallied six shot-creating actions.
Sterling’s pace, his ability to attack defenders on the dribble and create havoc running in behind makes a significant mismatch against Italy’s right-back Giovanni Di Lorenzo. Di Lorenzo has been exposed as Italy’s opponents have become increasingly more difficult, explicitly struggling when forced to mark opponents with boatloads of pace. He was responsible for giving away the penalty against Belgium, pushing Jeremy Doku after the wingback used his speed to get around him at the byline. In the semifinal, he on the back foot due to the constant offensive pressure of Jordi Alba and Spain’s pacy wingers. Neither the Czech Republic’s Vladimir Coufal nor Germany’s Joshua Kimmich managed to contain Sterling, all signs towards him lighting it up in the final.
Most bettors will direct their attention to Sterling’s as an anytime goalscorer odds at +320. He has scored twice and went close late in the match against Denmark. For me, though, the best value is found in the assist market. With Sterling at +800 to assist, I do not think the odds accurately reflect how favorable his matchup is or how strong his chance creation numbers have been. He leads England with 16 shot-creating actions and shares the joint top spot in carries into the penalty area with eight. Eleven of his SCAs and six carries into the penalty area have come during the knockout stage. The combination of appealing odds and even more impressive supporting numbers makes Sterling my favorite player to back for an assist.
The final order of business is my match prediction. My pre-tournament pick was Belgium beating England in the final. I then moved my choice to England when the draw for the knockout stage was made final. Admittedly, I have been going back and forth about my pick this week. England’s home field advantage and my love of New Order have tested my resolve as an Italian. Although I will be rooting for a Blue Monday, I expect the streets to be singing for England when the final whistle blows.
Match Prediction: England 2-1 Italy (+900)
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.
