We have made it far enough into the women’s college basketball season that we can start thinking about where teams are stacking up for NCAA Tournament seeding. The battles are particularly crucial in the Big Ten, which generally sends six or seven teams despite a cadre of competitive teams.
This edition of bracketology will establish the approximate range of each team in contention by examining their season to this point. Moving forward, this series will focus on recent performance, short-term trends and important upcoming games.
Iowa: 1-seed
Games this upcoming week: vs. Wisconsin on Tue. (Peacock), at Ohio State on Sun. (NBC)
Caitlin Clark continues to be a modern marvel, and the Hawkeyes keep rolling. Iowa is on a 14-game winning streak, hasn’t lost on the road this season and is one of two teams with four Quadrant 1 wins per NCAA Statistics. Clark leads the country in total points and assists. She and the rest of the team show no signs of slowing down. The Ohio State game at the end of the week will be a huge test.
Caitlin Clark record tracker: How close is she to breaking all-time points record?
Indiana: 3-seed
Games this week: vs. Minnesota on Wed. (Peacock), at Purdue on Sun. (Peacock)
The Hoosiers were just as hot as the Hawkeyes, entering the teams’ matchup on Saturday on a 13-game win streak. Iowa shellacked Indiana, 84-57, in Iowa City, and the Hoosiers will have to shake off the sting of that. Still, the Hoosiers’ only losses this season came in road games against No. 2 Iowa and No. 8 Stanford. They’re perfectly on track to enter the NCAA Tournament with a high seed.
Ohio State: 4-seed
Games this week: at Maryland on Wed. (Peacock), vs. Iowa on Sun. (NBC)
If the city of Los Angeles didn’t exist, Ohio State might be in the running for a No. 1 seed right now. Two of the Buckeyes’ three losses came to No. 5 UCLA and No. 6 USC, and the other was a road rivalry matchup with a scrappy Michigan squad. Sunday’s 70-65 win over Michigan State was a bit nervy, but overall, Ohio State has looked every bit the part of a contender.
Michigan State: 7-seed
Games this week: vs. Northwestern on Wed., at Minnesota on Sat.
There are actually a lot of basic similarities between Michigan State’s resume and Ohio State’s. The biggest differentiator – aside from the Buckeyes’ head-to-head win – is strength of schedule: The Spartans’ average opponent NET Rank is 77 while Ohio State’s is 26, and Michigan State had the 214th-ranked non-conference schedule as opposed to Ohio State’s 38. So, the Spartans tumble a few seeds down, but make no mistake: That offense is legitimate.
Nebraska: 8-seed
Games this week: vs. Michigan on Wed., at Penn State on Sun.
The Cornhuskers are off to a commendable 4-2 record in conference play, including an 80-74 win in East Lansing in early December. Nebraska has shown an ability to win close games against similarly matched Big Ten opponents, and that ability to grind out victories is going to be mighty helpful for their resume if they can keep it up.
Maryland: 9-seed
Games this week: vs. Ohio State on Wed. (Peacock), vs. Illinois on Sat.
The Terrapins took their lumps during a brutally difficult slate to open their season, as they got blown out in games at No. 1 South Carolina and No. 9 UConn. Since then, they have done what was needed, posting an 8-0 record at home. Sunday’s blowout win over Purdue won’t secure their spot or anything, but it’s encouraging that Maryland can rely on wins vs. lower-tier opponents.
Minnesota: 11-seed
Games this week: at Indiana on Wed. (Peacock), vs. Michigan State on Sat.
The Golden Gophers entered this season with the clear goal of improving their ability to turn opportunities into wins, and they’ve done that. Although the competition wasn’t always incredible, winning 10 of their last 12 has them poised to fight for a tournament spot. Wednesday’s game against Indiana on Peacock is a good chance to see what Minnesota looks like against the cream of the crop.
Penn State: Out but on the bubble
Games this week: vs. Purdue on Thu., vs. Nebraska on Sun.
The Nittany Lions earned a convincing win at Rutgers on Sunday, and it was crucial for them to avoid falling to 1-4 on the road this season. Penn State is 3-5 against the top 100 NET teams and 7-0 against teams ranked 101 or worse, so they’re mopping up the easier win opportunities. Their ability to get statement wins may determine their NCAA Tournament outlook, though.
Michigan: Out but on the bubble
Games this week: at Nebraska on Wed., at Rutgers on Sunday
Beating the No. 18 Buckeyes is a quality win and helped shake off some poor performances recently. Now, the Wolverines have a chance to string together victories; they don’t play one of the Big Ten’s three best teams until they head to Iowa on Feb. 15. Don’t be surprised if the Wolverines are among the top teams in the Big Ten by conference record at that point.
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