No. 16 Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech: Who, what, when, where, why and by how much
WHO? No. 16 Notre Dame (5-2) vs. Virginia Tech (5-2).
WHAT? A rematch not only from last year’s 45-23 Irish victory at Lane Stadium but also of the last time Notre Dame lost to an unranked opponent, the 2016 home finale. That run of 19 games has established a floor for Irish success, though one about to be tested with Notre Dame coming off a humbling at the hands of now-No. 14 Michigan. If the Irish cannot regather themselves quickly, that streak against unranked foes could be the victim.
WHEN? 2:30 ET. It’ll be a typical November afternoon, one tolerable but far from pleasant.
There has been no official word of a flyover before kickoff, but there has been a photo worth a thousand words …
WHERE? Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Ind.
The venue can hold 77,622, and the University claims sellouts in each of the last 272 Irish home games, a stretch reaching back to 1973. At some point, the means used to prolong that streak — help from sponsors, influxes in gameday sales, spurious group purchases — will be depleted and it will end. That day will probably not be this day, but it may be.
WHY? Much time has been spent this week pondering Notre Dame’s motivation for the rest of the season now that any and all Playoff hopes have been ruined. Let’s instead use this space to explain why the Hokies are 5-2 on paper only, not in reality. If Virginia Tech wants to prolong its 26-year bowl streak, it will need to win two more games, not just the one typically supposed. The reasoning goes back to weather more than a year ago.
Last season, Hurricane Florence wreaked havoc on schedules throughout the Southeast. East Carolina was supposed to visit Virginia Tech but expressed concern over the hurricane. Tech repeatedly suggested proceeding as planned until closer to the weekend, but East Carolina outright declared it would not make the trip, canceling the game.
Conversations, maybe they became negotiations, between the two athletic departments about that decision and subsequent rescheduling attempts became so contentious, the Hokies canceled this season’s game at East Carolina, as well as the rest of the series reaching well into the coming decade.
That left Virginia Tech with an open date in 2019 on short notice. FCS-level Rhode Island filled that slot, joining FCS-level Furman on the Hokies schedule. When considering bowl eligibility, only one victory against an FCS opponent can be counted. Thus, Virginia Tech has only four wins for bowl purposes.
Its next four games include only one moment of relief, putting that bowl streak in genuine jeopardy. (vs. Wake Forest, at Georgia Tech, vs. Pittsburgh, at Virginia.)
BY HOW MUCH? There is a phrase often used to explain the inexplicable, “Vegas knows. Vegas always knows.” It is meant to acknowledge sometimes the smartest people in the room know better than to assume the obvious.
The obvious in this instance puts faith in Hokies sophomore quarterback Hendon Hooker, who in three starts has spurred Virginia Tech to 39.67 points per game. The obvious knows the Irish are reeling after the Ann Arbor mishap. The obvious ponders if the Hokies may be seeking revenge for that loss a year ago.
The obvious knows Virginia Tech has lost only two turnovers in the last three games. The obvious saw Notre Dame’s defense implode last week for the first time in defensive coordinator Clark Lea’s tenure. The obvious hears all the same criticisms Irish senior quarterback Ian Book hears.
Thus, it seems every handicapper out there expects the Hokies to cover the 17.5-point spread, a number that has hardly moved since opening Sunday, at least not as of the end of the Mavericks-Lakers game early Saturday morning. They all predict Virginia Tech will fare better than the 38-21 result projected by a combined point total over/under of 58.5.
Contrary to popular belief, this space does not go contrarian simply for contrarian’s sake, especially not in these regards. But when seemingly everyone leans on the obvious …
The contrarian realizes Hooker’s offense had its first three touchdowns at Miami essentially gifted to it and scored only 31 points in regulation against North Carolina; that makes for a mild 26 point average in Hooker’s two games against FBS opponents. The contrarian knows the Irish responded well after their loss at Georgia. The contrarian remembers how easily Notre Dame dispatched the Hokies only a year ago.
The contrarian knows those two Virginia Tech lost turnovers in Hooker’s starts both came in the most recent of those. The contrarian puts more stock in the previous 19 games under Lea than the sample size of one. The contrarian recognizes that Book is undefeated in South Bend.
Notre Dame 31, Virginia Tech 13.
(6-1 in pick; 3-4 against the spread, 2-5 point total.)
INSIDE THE IRISH READING:
— Notre Dame loses RG Tommy Kraemer for at least a month— Criticism of Ian Book ‘fair,’ but Notre Dame without a QB controversy— A path to a Cotton Bowl return— And In That Corner … The Virginia Tech Hokies represent Notre Dame’s bounce-back chance— Things To Learn: Notre Dame’s motivation or lack thereof— Friday at 4: Notre Dame’s success not on a Playoff-or-bust spectrum
— Irish close the door, turn the page from Michigan
— The amazing survival story of Troy Pride and his family
— Hendon Hooker has Hokies offense clicking ($)— Virginia Tech’s Norell Pollard popped for pot possession— Has Notre Dame reached its peak under Brian Kelly? ($)— You are probably singing the wrong words to the fight song— USC targeting Cincinnati’s Mike Bohn as next athletic director
A thought about Notre Dame:— Ralph D. Russo (@ralphDrussoAP) October 30, 2019
I kind of thought we were past the point where every game was a referendum on BK and the program?
Saturday was obviously terrible, but the program seems healthier than it's been in decades and this looked like a 9, maybe 10-win team.