Of course Dabo Swinney focuses on Notre Dame’s receivers. The Clemson head coach began his career as a receivers coach, most pertinently coaching current Irish receivers coach Chansi Stuckey. It is the position group Swinney knows best now coached by someone he helped turn from a backup college quarterback into an NFL receiver.
And it is the position group most unknown for No. 15 Notre Dame (7-2) this weekend, facing the Tigers at 12 ET on ABC on Saturday, the Irish favored by a field goal.
Losing junior tight end Mitchell Evans for the season sets back Notre Dame’s offense, obviously. He leads the Irish in catches and receiving yards this season, playing his best when it mattered most. Evans snagged 17 passes for 280 yards in Notre Dame’s three toughest games this season, from Ohio State through Louisville, while the rest of the Irish pass-catchers pulled in 37 passes for 371 yards in those three weeks.
Losing Evans will change the offense, for better or for worse.
Swinney worries Notre Dame may focus more on the run, his defense better against the pass than the run, ranking No. 49 in the country in expected points added per rush against, more middling than would usually be expected from a Clemson defense. (Expected points added factors in game state — down, distance, score, time, field position, etc. — to assign a value to each snap’s result.) Explosive runs, in particular, cost the Tigers.
“It starts with being able to stop the run,” Swinney said this week. “Being able to be gap-sound because what they do formationally with their bunch sets, their motions, they create gaps. So we have to be very disciplined. Our linebackers and secondary have to be able to tackle well. They’re going to challenge you.”
Leaning on junior running back Audric Estimé, blossoming sophomore running back Jadarian Price and freshman speedster Jeremiyah Love could, in its own way, put the pressure on Clemson’s struggling offense. Gradually gaining field position and forcing Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik to repeatedly make the right decision should eventually yield a Clemson mistake; Klubnik turns over the ball more than once per game, now facing a defense that has forced 10 turnovers in its last two games.
But losing Evans could — let’s italicize and bold that plausible verb tense — could create a more explosive Notre Dame passing offense. Necessity is the mother of invention, and losing the 2023 safety blanket may result in more downfield shots.
Three @Covers previews for tomorrow, starting with ... I can't find a way to back Clemson.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 3, 2023
I know the world is on Notre Dame, and that should spark worry, but I can't find a way: https://t.co/nOwkNZ1f0U
In particular, the Irish will now struggle to lean on multiple tight end sets, as they have often done. The next tight end in to complement now-starter Holden Staes would be sophomore Eli Raridon, not quite yet full-go as he recovers from last year’s ACL tear. Raridon will play, but he has not established himself as an every-down asset this season, something unlikely to occur now in November.
An extra receiver will fill that spot more often than not, and as any Notre Dame fan knows, there are only so many options.
It has been difficult for the Irish to play both senior Chris Tyree and freshman Jaden Greathouse, both naturally fitting in the slot, the receiver typically pulled for a second tight end. They are, to this point, Notre Dame’s most consistent and explosive receivers (at least, when Greathouse is healthy, a balky hamstring limiting him much of the last four games). Losing Evans should create opportunities for them, Swinney’s worry even if he did not explicitly say so.
This play, overshadowed by the Chris Tyree punt return touchdown, deserves some love. It's one of the best throw-catch combinations we've seen from Notre Dame all year.
— Tyler Horka (@tbhorka) November 3, 2023
Under pressure, Sam Hartman puts it in stride for Tyree vs. double coverage. Tyree makes a spectacular grab. pic.twitter.com/6HtOFLorT5
“That’s the most improved part of their team,” he said. “They’ve gotten better and better throughout the year. … [Moving from running back] has been a good move for [Tyree]. He’s an explosive guy.”
The Irish did not take this approach — and to be clear, this is only a theory, it has not yet been seen, but it is the logical theory moving forward without Evans — because it lowers their floor. Playing Evans and Staes created a balanced offense, each adept in both the run and pass games.
With so few receivers on hand — six available healthy receivers right now, including both freshman former walk-on Jordan Faison and junior Jayden Thomas with his maybe-still-hesitant hamstring — relying on three every snap would create a higher fatigue rate.
Notre Dame can no longer lean on those tight ends.
And with just three games left across four weeks, and this looking like the only one that should be outright competitive, that worry of receiver exhaustion should be less of a mitigating factor.
Haven't really focused on the literal numbers this week -- Clemson's fumbles, repeated red-zone failures underscore this effect -- but the Tigers ranking No. 80 in havoc allowed against what Al Golden's defense has been doing lately sparks some thoughts ... https://t.co/aH85GEyuHi
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 3, 2023
Furthermore, the increasingly havoc-causing Irish defense creates further incentive for quick shots on offense. Clemson’s offense ranks No. 80 in havoc allowed — pass breakups, interceptions, forced fumbles and tackles for loss — part of Klubnik’s sloppy play and a poor sign for the offensive line’s years of gradual decline.
Notre Dame ranks only No. 22 in the country in causing havoc, but that number has escalated the last few weeks, and that was in part because it had forced opponents into a hole.
If the Irish have an early lead, one presumably sparked by a successful downfield completion to the likes of Tyree, they will know Klubnik needs to pass, and that is when players like defensive end Javontae Jean-Baptiste and fifth-year linebacker Marist Liufau can pin their ears back to get into the backfield.
Conservative early play such as turning to Estimé, Price and Love may be the safe route for Notre Dame, but putting points on the board out of the gates will be the reward-heavy game flow.
“Our defense is playing at an extremely high level, which gives our offense and our team a lot of confidence to be aggressive and take those shots knowing that you’re not going to hit every one,” Irish head coach Marcus Freeman said Thursday, “but if you happen to struggle on a series offensively, your defense usually will be able to get you the ball back.”
Dabo Swinney is focused on Notre Dame’s receivers, in part because Stuckey was a Clemson graduate assistant just four years ago. By early Saturday afternoon, Swinney may be focused on them because they have put his offense where it cannot be, operating from behind.
Clemson has gone 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games against P5 opponents, losing those nine by an average of 17.3 points compared to the lines.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 3, 2023
Seven of them were more than two touchdowns worse than the spread.
Tigers aren't just losing, they're falling well short of expectations.